PGA Tour Picks World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship Odds and Predictions
Interesting Sunday at the Genesis Open as big names like Justin Thomas and Tiger Woods completely faded. J.B. Holmes trailed Thomas by four shots entering the final round - only after both had to play their final 16 holes of the third round Sunday morning. Holmes shot a 1-under 70 in Round 4 and edged out Thomas, who posted 75, by a shot. Thomas three-putted three times on the back-nine in the final round. He finished with 34 putts after not more than 26 in any of the first three rounds.
Kind of ironic that these super-fit guys like Thomas and Tiger and Adam Scott looked haggard on Sunday in Round 4 with all the weather delays, etc., while the chubby Holmes didn't. The scoring averages of 72.2 overall and 36.8 on the back nine were both highs for the week in Round 4. It was Holmes' fifth career Tour win and first since the 2015 Houston Open. Woods faded with a 38 on the back nine Sunday to finish T15. He admitted he was tired due to the wind and cold.
I took a chance on Martin Laird at a long price of +9000 and that was not a good decision as he missed the cut following rounds of 75-76. Ah well, can't win them all.
This week, there are two events on Tour, but the best of the best are south of the border at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City for the big-money and smaller-field World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship. There is no cut this week. Only three of the world's Top 50 are skipping, led by No. 1 Justin Rose. Holmes had a previously planned family vacation (he hadn't qualified until that win) so he's also passing.
Frankly, the biggest story in golf last week was learning how much of a cheapskate that Matt Kuchar is. At the Mayakoba Golf Classic in early November in Mexico, Kuchar picked up a local caddie for the week because his had a prior engagement. Kuchar won $1.296 million and paid his caddie just $5,000. That became one of the biggest trending topics of last week on social media. At first, Kuchar defended that amount but eventually relented to pressure and will pay the guy a total of $50K. Kuchar comes out looking terrible for all this, and most of his fellow Tour pros were ripping him anonymously as well. I'm rather looking forward to the fan response that Kuchar gets in Mexico this week. He was heckled quite a bit at Riviera last week.
This is a rare Tour event where altitude is a factor because the Club de Golf Chapultepec rests some 7,800 feet above sea level. Needless to say, that means the ball will carry further. The course plays to about 7,345 yards and is a par 71. Tiger is playing again this week, his first time ever in a PGA Tour official event in Mexico. Woods has won the tournament seven times but at six different venues - twice at Doral outside Miami.
Last year was the second time Club de Golf Chapultepec hosted and Phil Mickelson and Thomas both finished at 16-under 268, with Lefty winning in the playoff on the first hole. That had been his first victory since the 2013 British Open, but he just got another a couple of weeks ago at Pebble Beach. Thomas was 11 shots out of the lead entering the weekend but shot 62-64 on the weekend, including a hole-out eagle on his 72nd hole.
Golf Odds: WGC-Mexico Championship Favorites
Thomas is the +900 favorite. Why not? In addition to that runner-up here last year, he has a Top 5. He has three Top 3 finishes in his past four starts on the PGA Tour this season.
Dustin Johnson, who is going to hit it a mile in the thin air, is +1000. He has yet to miss a cut in 2019 and has a win on the European Tour. When this event debut in Mexico in 2017, DJ won at 14-under 270. He also won at Doral in 2015 and was T7 last year.
Rory McIlroy (+1100), Bryson DeChambeau (+1600). Jon Rahm (+1600) and Rickie Fowler (+1600) round out the favorites, with Tiger at +1800. Rahm has yet to finish outside the Top 10 this year and Rahm has gone T20 and T3 here. McIlroy was T7 two years ago and has three straight Top 5s this year. Fowler won his last time out at Scottsdale.
Golf Odds: WGC-Mexico Championship Picks
One of the tougher tournaments to handicap since it has been held at the current course just twice. Like Thomas (-120), Johnson (-110), McIlroy (-105) and Rahm (+120 for Top 10s). Go DJ at +650 for top American, Rahm at +185 for top continental European and McIlroy (+400) as top overall European.
Head-to-head, bet Paul Casey (-125) over Jordan Spieth (-105), Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Bubba Watson (-110), Rahm (-125) over Fowler (-105), Brooks Koepka (-130) over Mickelson (even), and McIlroy (-105) over Thomas.
Before even seeing Bovada's prop options , I was torn here between Rahm or McIlroy to win. Turns out, I don't have to choose as there's an option on those two at +650 vs. the field (-1200).
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