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NHL Eastern Conference Finals Predictions: New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning

by Devon Rymarchuk - 5/31/2022

NHL Eastern Conference Finals predictions Corey Perry Tampa Bay Lightning

Series Odds: Tampa Bay Lightning -155 ($155 to win $100)/ New York Rangers +150 ($100 to win $150)

Series top goal scorer: Nikita Kucherov +550, Steven Stamkos +550, Mike Zibanejad +7500, Chris Kreider +750, Ondrej Palat +1100, Corey Perry +1100, Artemi Panarin +1300

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The back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions Tampa Bay Lightning find themselves in very familiar territory as they face off against the New York Rangers, who are coming off a blowout Game 7 win against the Carolina Hurricanes. Both teams have been led all season and the playoffs by superior goaltending. Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy are amongst the league’s finest when it comes to goaltending, and both are front runners (best odds) for the Vezina, which is given to the league’s best goalie.

Tampa Bay has looked like a well-oiled machine during the playoffs so far. They have faced elimination games, beaten the league’s top team and lost one of their best players due to injury. However, despite the adversity, they just know how to win hockey games. Dismantling the Florida Panthers in four games was a statement to the rest of the league: the Lightning are not going anywhere and want to win three in a row. A team with this type of track record and experience makes it hard to bet against them.

The Rangers outscored Tampa Bay 10-4 in their three victories, all of which were backstopped by Igor Shesterkin, who stood tall with a .958 save percentage, including a shutout. The Lightning outshot and outchanced the Rangers in each of the games but couldn’t come away with a victory. It was the Shesterkin Show.

The big question, however, is whether Brayden Point suits up for the Lightning. He was listed as day-to-day prior to the Panthers series and has been given lots of time to recover, but his status is still uncertain, and he doesn’t seem close. The odds listed above are based on Point returning for Game 5, which may be generous. If he doesn’t play at all, Tampa Bay’s odds of advancing to its third straight Stanley Cup Final drop to 62 percent. As many people may know, Brayden Point is considered the heartbeat of the Tampa Bay Lightning and has been a crucial piece to both Stanley Cups

Why Tampa Bay can win

Tampa Bay has the best forward in the series, the best defenseman and the best goalie in the world. The Lightning are coming off much-needed rest after their sweep against the President Trophy champions. Tampa Bay has finally earned the respect of oddsmakers and will be favored for the first time in the Stanley Cup Playoffs after being the underdogs in the first two rounds. When it matters the most, the Lightning know they can count on Vasilevskiy between the pipes. He shut out his opponents in the last six of seven elimination games, dating back to the 2020 Cup Final against Dallas, which is a stat that may never be beat.

Victor Hedman has been the best five-on-five player among both teams in this series. The Panthers looked very frustrated facing off against Hedman and didn’t manage a single goal against him in 65 minutes at five-on-five. His counterpart, Adam Fox, does lead all defenders in the postseason with 18 points but may lack the shutdown ability of Hedman in crucial moments.

The Lightning do have the best forward on either side of the aisle as well, in Nikita Kucherov, but he has a near equally dominant counterpart on the other side in Artemi Panarin. They’re two of the most dynamic playmakers in the league and will make for the most intriguing forward matchup in the series. The edge goes to Kucherov, who has been the most dominant playoff performer in the past three seasons; he has more assists than anyone has points over that span. This series will not be easy and with the caliber of goalies on either side; on any given night one of them can steal a game. The superstars on both teams need to show up, and I have seen more evidence of the Lightning players doing so based on their resume. The Rangers are lucky to be here after falling to the Penguins 3-1 and facing their third-string goalie, And against the Carolina Hurricanes they did not have to face their starter in net due to injury.

Tampa Bay is the better team here, even without Point. It’s unlikely many are questioning that, especially with New York’s biggest edge, goaltending, being mostly nullified by an equally gifted specimen on the other side. The Lightning are deep and have the championship pedigree that makes them difficult to put away. Vasilevskiy is a massive part of that.

I like the Lightning in 5 games; if you pick Tampa Bay to win in exactly 5 games it pays +400.

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