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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 3/23/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/22/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup for Saturday with free pick Connor Hellebuyck Winnipeg Jets

With only four weeks remaining in the regular season, things are heating up on the ice. That also means time is winding now to take advantage of established league trends, so today I break down the numbers so you can see where the money is being made. Additionally, let’s see how the race for the worst record is going while also talking about the hottest team in the sport.

Doc’s Sports offers NHL expert picks for every game on our hockey predictions page.

Predators Taking Over

Back on February 15, the Predators fell to the Dallas Stars, 9-2. They were widely viewed as a seller as they were falling farther and farther out of the playoff picture. However, the winds have changed. Nashville has now set the franchise record with a 16-game point streak. They have a 14-0-2 record since that big loss to the Stars and are now five points ahead of Vegas for the top wild card spot and nine points over the Blues, who are the first team out. The Predators have been exceptional on the road, going 22-10-3 this season, and their 34 regulation wins are better than the Stars, Oilers, Kings, Flyers, Bruins, and Maple Leafs, all of whom are in guaranteed spots. The goaltending has been much improved, as they have allowed just 1.81 GA/G since the seven-goal loss to Dallas. They hold their own against the league’s best teams and could pull off a big upset in the first round.

On the Cusp

Detroit Red Wings – 78 Points / To make the playoffs- -160

Losing you seven in a row is not a good sign for a team this late in the season, but they have rebounded nicely, going 3-1 since ending their losing skid on March 16. The Red Wings have managed to score just 12 goals while allowing four or more goals in every game during the skid. Not good, but they have since carried a +4-goal differential since the cold spell and now sit comfortably in the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.

Washington Capitals – 75 Points / To make the playoffs- +220

It is amazing the Capitals are even close to making the playoffs, as they carry a -31-goal differential on the season. Their goal differential ranks 27th in the NHL, and yet Washington is just three points out of the playoffs. They seemingly kicked the can down the road and traded away some of their players. However, if they can get to the playoffs, anything can happen. Right?

Minnesota Wild – 76 Points / To make the playoffs- +850

The gap in the Western Conference is much wider than that of the Eastern Conference. Vegas sits comfortably in the second wild card spot with 81 points. The Wild and Blues are the first teams out right now and the Wild are five points behind the Golden Knights. Minnesota has gone 4-1-2 over their last seven contests. Marc-Andre Fleury has had a resurgent second half of the year, and the offense is much improved. Nashville and Vegas are rolling right now and only got better at the deadline, but Minnesota could get their chance.

Home Splits

Every week, we take a look at who is hot against the spread and who is falling on either side of the game total, but now let’s dig even deeper into the numbers as we try and end the season on good terms without bank accounts.

ATS

There are just three teams with more than 20 home covers this season, and none of them are in a playoff position. The Saint Louis Blues lead the league with 23 home covers and are covering 67.6% of their home games. The Montreal Canadiens are right behind the Blues with 22 home covers in 34 games, while the Chicago Blackhawks are 21-15 ATS at home. On the flip side, there are only three teams who have failed to record more than 10 covers at home. The New Jersey Devils sit in last in the league with just seven covers in 35 home games. Dallas and Toronto are tied for the second least amount of home covers, with 10.

Total

The Dallas Stars may not dominate on home ice, but they lead the NHL with 24 overs at home, two more than second place. The Ottawa Senators find themselves with the second most over game totals on home ice with 22, and the New Jersey Devils trail them with 21 home covers. The Buffalo Sabres are the league leaders in hitting the south side of the game total, at home. Their 22 under performances is one of just three teams in the NHL to reach 20. The other teams to reach the 20 mark are the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have hit the under in 21 of their 36 home games this season, and the Vegas Golden Knights with 20.

Away Splits

ATS

On the road, the Philadelphia Flyers have been historically good at covering. They are 27-7 ATS on the road this season, which is by far the best in the league. The Florida Panthers are second with a 23-12 record ATS, while Montreal, Nashville, Buffalo, and Seattle all have covered in 22 road games this season. Despite being one of the better teams at home covers, the Chicago Blackhawks are the worst in away covers as they have only managed to cover in 10 of their 33 away games.

Total

Only two teams have had the over hit in more than 20 of their games away from home. The Colorado Avalanche lead the way with 22, while the Vancouver Canucks are on their heels with 21 road overs. These two teams have hit the over, on the road, 68.3% of the time. The Florida Panthers and Los Angeles Kings lead the way with the under, hitting in 22 of their 35 away games. The St. Louis Blues are the only other team to have seen the south side of the game total 20 or more times this season.

Basement Race

There are three teams who are already eliminated from playoff contention, the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, and San Jose Sharks. San Jose is alone in the basement, for now, with 39 points, while Chicago has 43 and the Ducks have 51. San Jose is the favorite (-3100) to finish with the worst record. Chicago (+2100) has a legit chance, as they are only four points ahead of the Sharks, while the Ducks (+25000) seem like they had too good of a start to the season for them to compete for the worst record this season. 

Saturday Free Pick: Winnipeg Jets @ New York Islanders – Winnipeg -1.5 +185

Winnipeg has been on a tear over the last few games, and Hellebuyck’s hiccup has ended as he is back to owning the crease. The offense has been working lately, scoring 17 goals in their last four matchups, and it seems that Winnipeg has put the second half woes to bed. Hellebuyck heating up is not a good sign for the Isles, who have mustered just nine goals over the course of their six-game losing skid. Not only has the offense been non-existent, but the average margin of defeat for New York is -2.83 goals. Two teams trending in opposite directions and one in a tight division race. Winnipeg will get the cover here.

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