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NHL Conference Finals Predictions for Each Series

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/22/2024

NHL conference finals predictions Jake Oettinger Dallas Stars

Eight more wins is all that is needed for the four remaining teams. The playoffs have given us some great moments throughout the first two rounds. Dallas has taken down the last two Stanley Cup Champions on their way to their third conference final in five years. The Panthers have eliminated Boston in back-to-back years, though perhaps a little more controversial this time around. New York started the postseason with seven straight victories and have continued to look like the most complete team, and Edmonton has seemed to take their offense up a level as they snuck past Vancouver in seven games. Before puck drop tonight in the Eastern Conference Finals, the favored Stanley Cup matchup is the Panthers and Stars, with the Panthers at +230 odds to win it all and Dallas at +240. Let’s break down how each team has fared in the playoffs and how they match up in the Conference Finals.

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Conn Smythe Trophy Update:

Before we get into the matchups, let’s take a look at the current Conn Smythe Trophy (Playoff MVP) standings.

Jake Oettinger +500

Connor McDavid +550

Igor Shesterkin +600

Aleksander Barkov +650

It is easy to identify the correlation between the winner of The Cup and the winner of this award, and I think this year it will be a goalie that wins it. Shesterkin has been incredibly reliable for the Rangers and has only allowed more than three goals just twice in 10 games. Oettinger has done so four times, but Dallas has had the toughest path to get here, and Oettinger has made many highlight stops throughout his 13 playoff games this season. Outside of each team’s current favorite, Evan Bouchard sits at +3500 while Miro Heiskanen (+1200) and Carter Verhaeghe (+2500) have great value as well.

Eastern Conference Finals: Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers

New York Rangers

Of the four remaining teams, no one has dominated their opposition like the Rangers have. After starting the postseason on a seven-game win streak, the Rangers rebounded after back-to-back losses as they overcame adversity for the first time in the postseason. As mentioned, Igor Shesterkin has been incredible so far and has allowed just 2.6 GA/G and has started all 10 playoff games. Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck are tied for the team lead with 14 points, while Chris Kreider leads the team with seven goals. The Rangers have had the best special teams play out of the Eastern Conference, as they are cashing in on 31.4% of their Power Play chances and have a PK% of 89.5%. No one hits like the Panthers do, so if the Rangers can draw a few penalties from the Panthers aggressive style of play, New York will move on.

Florida Panthers

Florida fans are flying high after taking out the Boston Bruins in back-to-back seasons. The offense has been incredible for Florida, as they have scored five or more in four of their 11 games. Sergei Bobrovsky has benefited from the Panthers offensive surge in the playoffs, but he has not run into the offense that the Rangers have and certainly not what awaits him in either Edmonton or Dallas. Matthew Tkachuk leads the team with 14 points, while Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Reinhart all have five or more goals. Florida has posted a 86.1% PK% so far. However, with the Rangers special teams play, it is going to be important for the Panthers to not commit so many penalties as their 171 PIM lead all remaining teams by a significant margin.

Matchup

Depth is an overlying X-Factor at this point in the season and becomes even more stressed when you have a tough and sure to be heavy hitting series. However, I like the Rangers to overcome the Panthers surge and reach the finals. I think Florida will get a little sloppy with penalties and the Rangers will be able to cash in more than Boston or Tampa Bay did. The Panthers have already taken down some tough netminders, but they have yet to see a team as complete as New York and I think the Rangers will get an early series lead and stave off any comeback like they did against Carolina.

My Pick: New York Rangers in Six

Western Conference Finals: Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars

Dallas Stars

No one has had a tougher path to the Conference Finals than the Dallas Stars. Dallas dethroned the two previous Stanley Cup Champions in Vegas and Colorado, as their depth has been vital to their success. The offense turned it up a notch against Colorado, which is not a good sign for Edmonton. The Dallas blueliners have been incredibly impactful, as Miro Heiskanen is producing a lot of offense and Chris Tanev and Thomas Harley have been neutralizing the opponent’s top skaters. Dalas also played their last two games without Roope Hintz, so his return will only boost the offense. Jake Oettinger has been clutch as well but will need to be a wall in this series with the Oilers ability to create in the offensive zone. The Stars will need to be better on the Penalty Kill, but there is no doubt their depth is better.

Edmonton Oilers

After strolling through their first-round matchup against the Kings, Edmonton battled and topped Vancouver in an exciting series. After his benching, Stuart Skinner returned to the crease in Game 6 & 7 and allowed just three goals. The offense looked the part, as usual, but of course against a third string netminder. Despite recording 11 goals this postseason, Zach Hyman is fourth on the team in points (13) as Leon Draisaitl (24), Connor McDavid (21), and Evan Bouchard (20) have been incredible all postseason. Edmonton leads all teams in PP% as they have been successful 37.5% of the time on the man advantage and their 91.4% PK% also tops the playoff teams. It will be crucial for this team to get an early lead, like we saw in Game 7, and force the other team to get more aggressive playing from behind and force them into making mistakes.

Matchup

Edmonton has had a great story this season considering the way it started, but it ends here. Dallas has the best depth of the remaining teams, and Jake Oettinger has been here before. No doubt it will be a high-scoring series and Edmonton will give it their best, but if Tanev and Harley can limit McDavid and Draisaitl then it seems like a no brainer as to who will win. However, much easier said than done. However, it is easy to label this as the third ‘Conference Final’ Dallas has played in this season as Vegas and Colorado matched up much better than Edmonton does. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Dallas is efficient in both zones and Oettinger has stepped it up during the run. Give me Dallas.

My Pick: Dallas Stars in Six

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