Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/5/2025

The Eastern Conference Semifinals will kick off with the Florida Panthers traveling to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs, who found a way to escape the first round. Toronto was able to hold off an Ottawa comeback and were able to utilize two overtime wins to take down the Senators in six games. As for Florida, they dominated the Battle of Florida once again as they took down Tampa Bay in five games, finishing the series with a +7-goal differential. The defending champions took the regular season series against Toronto as they went 3-1 with a +6-goal differential.

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Team Summaries

After winning the first three games, Toronto had a bit of a scare as Ottawa dominated in back-to-back games to make the series interesting. However, their efforts were too little too late as the Leafs found a way to move pas the first round. They averaged 3.17 GF/G during the first round, which is down from their 3.26 GF/G regular season average. They have dominated on the power play through one round of the playoffs as they cashed in on 35.3% of their power play opportunities which is the best mark amongst Eastern Conference playoff teams. The Leafs also tallied an 80% PK%. William Nylander leads the team with nine points through their six playoff games. His three goals are tied for the team lead with Matthew Knies and John Tavares. Mitch Marner has a team best seven assists and is second on the team with eight points. Anthony Stolarz has been incredible in the postseason as he has allowed just 2.21 GA/G, allowing just 14 goals on 142 shot attempts. Stolarz has Toronto ranked fourth amongst playoff teams in GA/G, behind their second-round opponents and the other two remaining Eastern Conference teams. Toronto has no injury issues heading into the series.

As mentioned, Florida completely dominated the Battle of Florida once again as they took down Tampa Bay in five games. They scored 14 goals in three road games, giving them some incredible road momentum as they head to Canada. Their 3.80 GF/G is tied with Carolina for the second-best mark amongst remaining playoff teams. Their special teams’ units have been solid as they have scored on 25% of their power play chances, while killing off 88.9% of their opponent’s man advantage opportunities. Production was spread out with Sam Reinhart leading the team with six points. Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk, and Nate Schmidt are tied for a team best three goals. Bennett, Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Anton Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen all have five points through five games this postseason. Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed just 2.21 GA/G, allowing just 11 goals on 111 shot attempts. Florida is tied with Washington with a 2.40 GA/G mark which is the second best amongst playoff teams. Florida has no injury issues heading into the series.

Goalie Matchup

Stolarz dominance broke the Toronto curse as his play propelled them into the second round. At home, he has allowed just 1.99 GA/G during the postseason, and he has posted an elite .927 SV%. His last three games have looked a lot different from the first three games to start the series. Since Game Four, he has allowed 2.39 GA/G, but his .868 SV% may tell a different story as his performance has trended in the wrong direction. This is Stolarz’s first postseason as the team’s starting goaltender and the increased pressure and workload could lead to the declining numbers in the back half of the Ottawa series.

Bobrovsky recorded a shutout in Game Two against Tampa Bay, but his final three games of the series also indicated a decline in performance. After allowing just two goals on 41 shot attempts in the first two games, Bobrovsky has allowed nine goals over his last three games while posting a lowly .869 SV%. Regardless, he knows what it takes to win the Stanley Cup, and he has a lot of hockey left to get back on track. He has allowed 2.81 GA/G across 93 postseason starts in his career.

Skaters to Watch

Toronto Maple Leafs:

Matthews has just one point in three games against the Florida Panthers this season.
Nylander and Tavares have a combined +/- rating of -4 despite combining for 14 points and six goals.
Marner has 58 points in 63 career postseason games, and he has a career best 12.5% S% this postseason.

Florida Panthers:

Bennett and Reinhart have combined for 10 points against Toronto this season and both players have scored more goals on the road this season than at home.
Brad Marchand has 142 points in 162 career playoff games and has 24 points over his last 23 games.
Tkachuk has 20 postseason goals in 49 postseason games with the Florida Panthers.

Series Pick

The defending champions have a ton of confidence heading into this conference semifinal matchup against Toronto. They dominated Tampa Bay in the Battle of Florida and will look to do the same here against a division foe they dominated in the regular season. Bobrovsky gives the Panthers an advantage in the crease due to his playoff experience, but Stolarz has been solid for Toronto so far. Toronto needs to find their groove early in the series here and avoid slipping up early. A Game One victory for Florida, in Toronto, may be a much bigger blow than one may realize. However, I like Toronto here. They found a way out of the first round without their top guys really taking off. Once they get established in this series, I think the offense will get going again. Matthews will definitely need to be better in this series, but Toronto will find a way to get it done.

My Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs to Win: +146, Series Total Games: Over 5.5 -194, Series Exact Games: 6 Games +195

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Start:	May 5, 2025 @ 11:00 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Series Predictions and Best Bets

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