2026 PGA Picks: BMW Championship and Expert Betting Predictions
The first FedEx Cup Playoff event finished last week with a resounding win for Scottie Scheffler. This marked his second win on the PGA Tour this season, as he ran away en route to an 8-stroke victory with a final score of -17.
This week, the PGA Tour heads to St. Louis, Missouri, for the second FedEx Cup Playoff event, that being the BMW Championship. Note that the field has been cut down to the Top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings, so not only will there be no cut after the second round, but there is also little room for error as players have one last chance to make their way inside the Top-30 ahead of the Tour Championship next week.
This event is set to begin on Thursday, August 20th and will conclude on Sunday, August 23rd. As usual, my article will preview the BMW Championship by providing a brief course overview and the current outright betting odds. Further, I will include my best bet to win the tournament and my two favorite ‘Top X Finish’ props.
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The Course
The BMW Championship will be played at the Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri. This course is a Par 70 and measures 7,448 yards. It consists of 12 Par 4s, four Par 3s, and two Par 5s.
Outright Odds
Below are the top-10 outright odds to win the BMW Championship per DraftKings Sportsbook:
*Scottie Scheffler: +300
*Rory McIlroy: +1300
*Xander Schauffele: +1700
*Ludvig Aberg: +1750
*Sam Burns: +1800
*Cameron Young: +1850
*Tommy Fleetwood: +2000
*Matt Fitzpatrick: +2350
*Chris Gotterup: +2400
*Viktor Hovland: +2700
BMW Championship Best Bets
Tommy Fleetwood to Win the BMW Championship (+2000)
My top pick to win the BMW Championship is Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood has had an excellent season, which is shown by the fact that he ranks 8th in the FedEx Cup standings. He has essentially already locked up his spot in the Tour Championship next week, where he will defend his title, but his current form suggests he could be a real contender at this tournament.
To this point, Fleetwood has made 16 of 17 cuts this season and has finished inside the Top 10 in eight events. Further, he has finished inside the Top 15 in eight of his last nine events, which includes four Top 5 finishes.
This season, Fleetwood ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total, 9th in Driving Accuracy, 2nd in Scrambling, and 12th in Scoring Average. Additionally, Fleetwood has had a ton of success at this event throughout his career, finishing T8 in 2018, T11 in 2019, T5 in 2024, and T4 in 2025.
Given that Fleetwood has consistently challenged at the top of the leaderboard this season, backing Tommy Fleetwood to win the BMW Championship is my best bet.
Tom Kim to Finish Top 20 (Including Ties) (-128)
My favorite ‘Top X Finish’ prop for the BMW Championship will look for Tom Kim to finish inside the Top 20. Kim has had a solid 2026 season, ranking 26th in the FedEx Cup standings. Given his ranking, he will likely need a strong finish to secure his spot in the Top 30 at the Tour Championship next week.
Kim has especially been playing well recently, having finished inside the Top 20 in six of his last eight events, which includes a win at the Genesis Open in July and a T12 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week.
This season, Kim ranks 17th in Strokes Gained: Total, 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach to Green, 3rd in Scoring Average, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring Average, and 25th in Birdie Average.
Because of this, and because of his strong finishes as of late, backing Tom Kim to finish inside the Top 20 will be my play.
Jake Knapp to Finish Top 20 (Including Ties) (-110)
My second favorite ‘Top X Finish’ prop will look for Jake Knapp to finish inside the Top 20. Knapp has had somewhat of an up-and-down season, but he still has put himself in a position to reach the Tour Championship. As it stands, Knapp ranks 35th in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning he will need a strong finish to break into the Top 30 of the standings.
This season, Knapp has made 11 of 16 cuts, having finished inside the Top 20 nine times. His form has dropped off some recently, as he has missed the cut in three of the last five events he has played. That said, he is coming off a T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship this past week, so it looks as if his form is starting to return.
In 2026, Knapp ranks 14th in Strokes Gained: Total, 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach to Green, 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 2nd in Scoring Average, 19th in Par 4 Scoring Average, and 13th in Birdie Average. Because of this, backing Jake Knapp to finish inside the Top 20 will be my play.
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