Baseball Handicapping Articles

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/1/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/31/2017

If you aren't fading the Chicago White Sox by now, then you simply aren't paying attention. On Sunday, the Pale Hose traded essentially the last valuable asset (assuming Jose Abreu is untouchable for now) in outfielder Melky Cabrera to Kansas City for two minor-league pitchers. With All-Star Avisail Garcia out at least two weeks with a thumb injury, there are maybe four legitimate major-leaguers now in the everyday lineup: Abreu, second baseman Yoan Moncada, third baseman/DH Matt Davidson and shortstop Tim Anderson, who's having a disappointing season.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/29/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/28/2017

At some point this weekend, Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre could become the 31st member of baseball's 3,000-hit club and only the fourth third baseman to do so, joining Hall of Famers Paul Molitor (who played DH late in his career), George Brett and Wade Boggs. Of the 30 players to get to 3,000 career hits, everyone is either in the Hall of Fame, will be when eligible (Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki), is banned from baseball (Pete Rose) or has a PED issue (Alex Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro).

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams
by Aaron Smith - 7/28/2017

Most teams have played at least 100 games now, so we are more than 60 percent of the way finished with the season. Some of the early-season surprises have tailed off lately such as the Twins and the Brewers. What about the surprise teams that keep winning? The Diamondbacks and Rockies have both consistently been good in the NL West.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/28/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/27/2017

When you are a bad team at this point in the season - i.e. a few days ahead of the trade deadline - you are caught in a bit of a Catch-22. You don't want to sit your most tradeable players as you still need to try, especially at home. But you also don't want to risk injury to them. The Cincinnati Reds are unquestionably sellers ahead of Monday's non-waiver trade deadline. Unfortunately for them, their top trade chip is likely shortstop Zack Cozart, and there are really no contenders that need a shortstop … unless Houston wants Carlos Correa insurance.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/27/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/26/2017

At BetOnline, Yankees rookie Aaron Judge remains the -145 favorite to become the AL MVP and become the third player in history to win Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season. My money, however, will be going on Houston's Jose Altuve, whom I thought should have won MVP last year.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/26/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/25/2017

Here's hoping you took my advice during the All-Star break when I recommended betting on slight underdog Max Scherzer of the Nationals to repeat as the Cy Young winner this year over three-time winner and favored Clayton Kershaw. You can all but rule out Kershaw from that race as he's expected to miss 4-6 weeks following an initial diagnosis of an injured back. He's still going to see a specialist, but the Dodgers feel confident about that timeline and that he won't miss two-and-a-half months like he did last year with a herniated disk.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/25/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/24/2017

Apparently the uncertainty over when the Marlins will be sold and to whom will stop the team from conducting a fire sale ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told the media Sunday that he has no intention of dealing Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna or Dan Straily at the deadline. Now, obviously the guy isn't going to come out and say he's shopping some of his best players, but Hill added that any major deals be better left in the hands of the Marlins' new ownership. That makes sense.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/22/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/22/2017

There has been a change on the BetOnline prop for which player leads the majors in homers in 2017. Yankees rookie Aaron Judge has been the favorite for months, but he's ice cold since the All-Star break. Judge has been caught at 30 homers (as of this writing) by Miami's red-hot Marlin Giancarlo Stanton (who was surprisingly knocked out in the first round of the All-Star Home Run Derby won by Judge).

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/21/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/20/2017

The next week or so is likely to determine the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates not just this year but also for 2018. The Bucs got back arguably their best all-around position player Tuesday in outfielder Starling Marte. He leads all Pirates offensive players in WAR, batting average and stolen bases the past two seasons. Marte had tested positive for PEDs early in the season - of course he has no idea how that happened -- and was suspended 80 games.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/20/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/19/2017

It's a good thing that the Houston Astros have the largest division lead in baseball because they have lost their best player, All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa, for 6-8 weeks, to a torn ligament in his left thumb. That ends his chances at winning the AL MVP. Correa exited in the middle of his at-bat in the fourth inning Monday vs. Seattle after feeling pain on a swing. The former AL Rookie of the Year injured the same thumb on July 4 during a game in Atlanta.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/19/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/18/2017

There is no such thing as the Home Run Derby curse! That's what paranoid New Yorkers are claiming has bitten now-struggling rookie superstar outfielder Aaron Judge since his stellar performance in winning the Derby last Monday in Miami. Sure, you can bring up how Philadelphia's Bobby Abreu hit 18 dingers in 323 pre-Derby at-bats in 2005, won the Derby and then hit just six more homers all season.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/18/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/17/2017

It was common knowledge that the Washington Nationals were going to make a trade to boost the majors' worst bullpen - the Nats had a whopping 14 blown saves this year. On Sunday, they addressed the issue by acquiring Ryan Madson and lefty Sean Doolittle from the A's for former closer Blake Treinen and two prospects. Treinen had a 7.11 ERA in his first eight appearances this year before his demotion from the closer role, and he has a 5.46 ERA since losing the job on April 19. Madson was 2-4 with a 2.06 ERA and a save this year in Oakland.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/15/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/15/2017

Trade season is upon us! The Chicago Cubs decided not to wait until the July 31 non-waiver deadline by acquiring White Sox ace lefty Jose Quintana on Thursday for a quartet of prospects. This truly looks like a win-win deal for both Chicago franchises, which rarely deal with one another. It's their first trade since 2006 and first major one since March 1992 when the White Sox acquired George Bell from the Cubs in exchange for a young unknown outfielder named Sammy Sosa (and pitcher Ken Patterson). The Cubs' rotation led the majors in ERA last year but everyone has regressed.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/14/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/13/2017

Really no surprises on BetOnline's updated player props for the season. Yankees rookie Aaron Judge remains the -300 favorite to win the AL MVP and +130 leader to top the majors in homers as he currently has a threeHR lead over No. 2 George Springer of Houston. You can also get Judge at +650 to win the Triple Crown. That's not happening (no is -1200). For the AL Cy Young, Red Sox lefty Chris Sale is the heavy -250 favorite. Houston's Dallas Keuchel (+650) was pitching perhaps even better than Sale but injuries derailed his first half.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/8/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/8/2017

It's my final Five to Follow story of the first half of the 2017 season, with games to resume after the All-Star break on Friday. Monday-Thursday is arguably the longest four-day stretch of the year for sports bettors because there's just nothing going live those nights to bet on other than the occasional MLS game. It's also why ESPN shows the god-awful ESPYs during the break. I might actually watch Monday's Home Run Derby from Marlins Park in Miami.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams
by Aaron Smith - 7/7/2017

How about the Houston Astros? Everyone keeps waiting for them to hit a tough patch, and it isn't happening. Houston is a ridiculous 31-9 on the road this year. They are scoring 6.91 runs per game away from home on the season. They are 16 games ahead of second place in the AL West, and it isn't quite the break yet!

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/7/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/7/2017

I love the NBA, and the Association has been hogging the sports spotlight ever since the draft when Chicago traded Jimmy Butler to Minnesota. On Tuesday, Gordon Hayward, a very good player but hardly a superstar, got a four-year, $128 million free-agent deal to leave Utah for Golden State. The problem for the NBA is that there's really only two teams as things stand right now who can win it all next year and they are Golden State and Cleveland. Superstars are going to play with their friends for less money (Chris Paul to Houston, for example) to form superteams.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/6/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/6/2017

In my opinion, the most fascinating team ahead of the July 31 trade deadline could be the Atlanta Braves. They have overachieved a bit this season and surprisingly got back star first baseman Freddie Freeman from a broken wrist on Tuesday - a good couple of weeks before original projections. Freeman also has moved to third base because Matt Adams has hit so well playing first. What does the Atlanta front office do here?

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/5/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/4/2017

If you still care about which players will round out the American and National League All-Star rosters, the five Final Vote candidates are Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts, Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius, Rays first baseman Logan Morrison and Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas in the Junior Circuit.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/4/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/3/2017

The Houston Astros were actively shopping for starting pitching as it was, but they might have a bit more urgency now in the wake of rookie right-hander David Paulino being suspended 80 after he tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance. His penalty officially began on Saturday. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said Paulino "feels bad about it." Well, why did he do it then? It certainly wasn't an accident as the 23-year-old Dominican tested positive for Boldenone, a derivative of testosterone used on horses.