MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams
Most teams have played at least 100 games now, so we are more than 60 percent of the way finished with the season. Some of the early-season surprises have tailed off lately such as the Twins and the Brewers. What about the surprise teams that keep winning? The Diamondbacks and Rockies have both consistently been good in the NL West.
The trade deadline is nearing, and we'll start finding out which teams believe they are true contenders and who is ready to sell and rebuild for the future.
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Doc's Sports has done an MLB Totals Trends Report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this year. This will be a bi-weekly article here on the site. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' and the Top Five 'Under' teams of the past couple weeks in each article. Because the baseball season is a long grind, there can be some impressive streaks inside the season, and catching one of these can boost your bankroll. The statistics in this article are for games from July 6 through July 27.
Top Five "Over" Teams (Over Listed First)
1. San Diego Padres (13-4-1) The Padres have been an over machine of late. The offense, which was terrible for the majority of the season, has been much better in recent weeks. The Padres have scored five runs or more in seven of their last 10 games. The Padres are a whopping 31-17-3 to the over at home this year. PetCo Park isn't playing as small as it did in previous years!
2. Baltimore Orioles (12-5) The Orioles got Chris Davis back, and the lineup has really started producing. Baltimore's offensive numbers have jumped in a big way of late. Still, this is a team to be careful with, because they are so reliant on the home run. I suggest looking to play overs with the Orioles only when they are against fly ball pitchers and guys who are prone to giving up the long ball.
3. Colorado Rockies (11-5) The Colorado Rockies had a six-game homestand during this time frame, and the over went 5-1 in that span. Colorado is still a team that struggles to hit consistently on the road. The Rockies have a weighted on base average that ranks No. 24 in the majors on the road. Look for warm weather games at Coors Field if you want the over with this team.
4. New York Mets (11-5) This team has baffled me all season long. I can't believe the Mets keep being an amazing over team week after week. The over is a whopping 59-30-11 in the Mets games so far this season. I'll say again that I can't imagine that trend continues the rest of the way, but I've been wrong before. The oddsmakers have to be catching up here. Right?
5. Houston Astros (10-5-1) The Astros pitching staff is tremendous, but it has been the offense that has been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks. Houston ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average. They are doing a great job not striking out very much, and their walk rate is way up from a couple years ago. This is a very complete team.
Top Five "Under" Teams (Under Listed First)
1. Cincinnati Reds (12-5-1) The Reds can't hit anything of late. Cincinnati has scored two runs or less in six of their last 10 games. Even Joey Votto has been cold of late. He'll definitely heat up, because he is one of the best hitters in the game, but the rest of the lineup is a question mark. Zack Cozart's absence of late with an injury has been a major problem as well.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (11-5-1) The Pirates have made a move in the standings to where they might not be sellers, but that decision will likely come down to the last couple days of the deadline. Pittsburgh's recent streak has come largely because of great starting pitching and bullpen work. Rivero has become one of the best relievers in the game.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (11-5-2) The Cardinals haven't booted the ball around as often of late, and the reduced errors has helped lead to more unders. This is a team that I'll look to go back the other way with, though. St. Louis plays two good hitting teams (Arizona and Milwaukee) in their next two series, and I see those being some pretty high-scoring games. The Cardinals have a great young lineup, and they are going to score plenty of runs the rest of the way.
4. Kansas City Royals (10-5-1) Kansas City has been a surprise team in general this year. The Royals started the season out dreadfully, and it looked like they would be a big seller near the deadline. Instead, they have turned the tables and become buyers at the deadline. I still believe this is a team that has a rotation that is far too weak to make a run in the playoffs. The offense is extremely inconsistent as well. Royals totals are usually ones I stay away from because there is too much unknown.
5. Milwaukee Brewers (11-6) The Brewers young hitters have definitely cooled off of late, and the fortunes of the team have gone south a bit at the same time. In the long run, this is a team with a lot of talented youngsters who have a bright future. In the short term, these are guys that aren't used to playing in big spots yet and the bright lights might bother them a bit. When should you consider the over more strongly with Milwaukee? When they are up against a pitcher or team who can't hold runners on base. The Brewers are first in baseball in stolen bases.
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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