2026 MLB Season Win Total Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/26/2026

MLB season win total predictions Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers

With Opening Day here, now is the time to get your last-minute bets in on teams win totals. In this article, we will go team by team and assess which side of the win total they will fall on after a long offseason. The Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest projected win total set at 102.5, while teams like Colorado, St Louis, and Washington set to compete for the basement. Let’s see where everyone else’s projections lie and see who will do what.

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Arizona Diamondbacks – 79.5

The Diamondbacks still have a strong veteran presence on this team, but they are nowhere near capable of competing with the Dodgers over the course of the 162-game regular season. The offseason additions were underwhelming, which could be indicative of where the front office is heading in terms of buying or selling. A slow start to the year will almost guarantee a fire sale of the veterans. Expect the seller’s mindset to push their win total closer to 70 than 80.

My Pick: Under 79.5

Athletics – 75.5

The Athletics are going to be facing another year of their rebuilding phase. However, they have finally constructed a lineup that could produce even in the fall months of the postseason. Unfortunately, their pitching staff is still atrocious, and this will keep them out of the postseason. They did win 76 games last season, and they are in a better position this season with the lineup coming into form. Take the over here despite the abysmal pitching staff.

My Pick: Over 75.5

Atlanta Braves – 86.5

This is not good. The Braves are already faced with a lot of question marks this season with all their injuries. Jurickson Profar is out all year, and there is a slew of pitching injuries that have once again decimated their chances of competing. Take the under on the win total. The front office has refused to buy in on the core, after locking them up on long-term deals, so there is little to no confidence in Atlanta that they will replenish the starting pitching. The lineup has underperformed and failed to reproduce their historical stats from just a few years ago. The Mets and Phillies will beat them up all year. Take the under.

My Pick: Under 86.5

Baltimore Orioles – 85.5

The Orioles are behind the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox on paper. This will certainly take away some wins and make the over a hard take. However, they have a lot of young talent, even at the big-league level, that they can dangle to other teams at the deadline in order to boost their chances of securing a wild card. Adding Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward balances out the once heavy left-handed lineup, and the additions of Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt deepened the rotation. Don’t sleep on Baltimore.

My Pick: Over 85.5

Boston Red Sox – 87.5

Boston is going to win 90 games this season and could push 100. They are one of the most underrated teams in the league, and they will take the league by storm this summer. Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez take the rotation to another level, and they have a crowded outfield with a lot of production. Losing Alex Bregman hurts, but they filled some of that hole with Willson Contreras, and they can further fill the hole by trading away an MLB-ready outfielder and prospects for another elite bat. Take the over.

My Pick: Over 87.5

Chicago Cubs – 88.5

The Cubbies will win the NL Central. Milwaukee has shipped out their ace and are potentially facing a rebuild. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all still in a tier or two below the Cubs. They did lose Kyle Tucker, but they replaced him with Bregman, and they signed other wild card players like Dylan Carlson, Kyle Wright, and Michael Conforto. The one issue for Chicago is the initial absence of Justin Steele. The pitching staff needs some help, but they are still the best team in the NL Central, and they will reach 90 wins.

My Pick: Over 88.5

Chicago White Sox – 67.5

The White Sox have improved their roster. They signed Japanese star Munetaka Murakami, which could totally turn the trajectory of their lineup. They did trade their long-time center fielder Luis Robert Jr., and they lost a lot of depth pieces. Murakami might fill some of the seats in the south side of Chicago, but the White Sox are still a long way away from competing. They won’t reach 65 wins.

My Pick: Under 67.5

Cincinnati Reds – 80.5

Hunter Greene’s absence could not have come at a worse time. The Reds are in a position to really fight for a wild card, especially with the regression of Milwaukee. They added some solid bullpen arms that should take the pressure off their starting rotation. Adding Nathaniel Lowe and Eugenio Suarez add a strong veteran presence to the lineup which could boost the production of their young guys. Unfortunately, they are putting all their eggs in the young guys in the rotation. Fade the Reds.

My Pick: Under 80.5

Cleveland Guardians – 79.5

Losing two of their most reliable pitchers in a gambling scandal derailed the franchise. The Guardians added a slew of relievers, but none of them competed with what they lost in Emmanuel Clase. Cleveland has an incredibly strong farm system that they can dip into in order to put themselves back into playoff position, or they can take the summer to reshape their roster. I am taking the over as they stand pat and let the end without any major moves until next offseason. Cleveland will define average and end with a .500 record.

My Pick: Over 79.5

Colorado Rockies – 54.5

The Colorado Rockies are going to be the worst team in the MLB this season, and it will be another ugly season. They will ship out any contributing veteran pitchers, and may even deal some of their productive bats, in order to boost their future capital. The stars are not close to aligning for the Rockies. Take the under.

My Pick: Under 54.5

Detroit Tigers – 85.5

The Tigers made a huge move in adding Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander to support Tarik Skubal in the starting rotation. The front office needs to add two elite bats in order to put Detroit in position to make a deep run in the playoffs. However, in a weakened AL Central, they will dominate the regular season and win 95 games this season. Expect Detroit to buy at the deadline and boost their roster.

My Pick: Over 85.5

Houston Astros – 86.5

Yordan Alvarez is a big X-Factor for the Houston Astros this season. He appeared in just 48 games last season, and if that repeats itself this season, expect Houston to stumble to the finish line. However, if they are healthy the Astros can be a legit threat in the AL West and in the playoffs. Tatsuya Imai is an intriguing addition to the rotation, and if Lance McCullers Jr. can find his pre-injury form, then watch out MLB. Take the over on this win total.

My Pick: Over 86.5

Kansas City Royals – 82.5

This is one of the easiest overs to pick. Kansas City has a legit shot of upending Detroit in the AL Central. They have one of the best bullpens in the MLB, and the front office may finally be interested enough in heavily investing in firepower for the lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best players in the league and if he gets some protection in the lineup, the Royals could be dangerous. Kansas City is a sleeper.

My Pick: Over 82.5

Los Angeles Angels – 70.5

I think the division is much closer than in years prior. The bottom of the division is improving. However, Mike Trout cannot stay healthy, Logan O’Hoppe’s production potential is clouded, and the rotation is a bit shaky entering the year. If they get off to a hot start, the Angels could be more inclined to buy in on this team. Take the under here, but don’t be surprised if this team is a trade or two away from encroaching on the wild card.

My Pick: Under 70.5

Los Angeles Dodgers – 102.5

Even with a video game like roster, they have a lot of injury concerns that can keep them below this win total just like last year. They have eight legit starters, but they have a lot of guys who have missed extended time throughout their careers. They are no doubt a heavy favorite to win the World Series again but take the under on the win total due to the potential concerns with the injuries.

My Pick: Under 102.5

Miami Marlins – 72.5

Take the under on this win total. The Marlins are in an unstable state at present time and now is not the time to invest in a playoff caliber team. They are going to invest in the future by shipping out any producing veteran player for prospects or cap space. Guys like Christopher Morel, Esteury Ruiz, Pete Fairbanks, and Chris Paddack are solid, but they will all likely be in another uniform by the end of the year. It will be an ugly season, take the under.

My Pick: Under 72.5

Milwaukee Brewers – 84.5

The Brewers are in for a major regression after trading away Freddy Peralta. They are without an ace in the rotation now, and they are betting with a Brandon Woodruff comeback to keep this team afloat. The Brewers will be back quickly, but they are going to be in for a down year. The NL Central is going to be won by the Cubs, and the Brewers ceiling may be a wild card, but likely they are going to be .500.

My Pick: Under 84.5

Minnesota Twins – 72.5

Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan are going to be out for an extended period of time, right after the Twins were 22 games under .500. The two stars being injury prone could also lead to more missed time this year, and the two could also be discussed as trade chips later on in the summer. Expect Minnesota to continue to press the reset button.

My Pick: Under 72.5

New York Mets – 90.5

The Mets are going to return to the playoffs this year, and they are loaded. After investing a lot into the roster last offseason, they followed that up by adding Bo Bichette, Robert, Peralta, and Devin Williams. The offense is loaded, the rotation could be elite if they can stay healthy, and the bullpen replenished after the loss of Edwin Diaz. The Mets could continue to add towards the deadline to fill any holes in the roster. The Mets could win 100 games this year.

My Pick: Over 90.5

New York Yankees – 90.5

Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon are out to start the year. Max fried is going to lead a rotation of unproven arms, and the Yankees are going to be totally reliant on run production in the early months of the season. The bullpen is due to improve, and the Yankees are going to buy in this season. It may be a slow start, but don’t overthink it. They are going to win more than 90 games this season.

My Pick: Over 90.5

Philadelphia Phillies – 89.5

The Phillies are going to hit the over here. They are joined by the Mets as two powerhouses in the NL East, and they will face little resistance in the division leading to more wins. This roster is loaded with playoff experience, and they have the tools to dethrone the Dodgers and win a World Series. While the offseason additions were minimal, they have plenty of prospects that they can dangle to teams willing to sell producing veteran players. Expect Philadelphia to be active in the trade market to fill out their rosters. Take the over.

My Pick: Over 89.5

Pittsburgh Pirates – 78.5

I am big on Pittsburgh this year. Milwaukee is taking a step back which could open up some more wins for the Pirates, and the NL Central is weak overall. Paul Skenes is going to get some reinforcements in the rotation, and the Pirates also added a slew of veteran hitters to boost the dreadful offense. They have a strong farm system that will further boost the big-league team whether through promotions or trades. Take the over and expect the Pirates to be in the wild card mix.

My Pick: Over 78.5

San Diego Padres – 83.5

The Padres season is going to be an interesting one to follow. If they fail to get hot early and fall behind the Giants and Dodgers in the division standings, then don’t be surprised if the Padres kick the can on the season and look to build for the future. However, I do not see this team regressing six games, especially if their wild card additions like Triston McKenzie, Griffin Canning, and Walker Buehler pan out. Take the over, cautiously.

My Pick: Over 83.5

San Francisco Giants – 80.5

I am going to hammer the over here and expect the Giants to finish second in the NL West. Bryce Eldridge will add a much-needed boost to the lineup, while the rotation received a boost with the signing of Tyler Mahle. They are going to be a tier below the Dodgers, but they have put themselves in a position to rival the Padres in the division. Don’t sleep on the Giants.

My Pick: Over 80.5

Seattle Mariners – 89.5

Cal Raleigh had a historical season last year. Now it remains to be seen whether or not he can continue to produce at a high level. The Mariners are incredibly reliant on his production, and the lack of offensive moves this offseason shows they are confident in their backstop. They have one of the best rotations in the league, when healthy, and they have a very reliable closer in Andres Munoz. Seattle is going to win the AL West and win nearly 100 games doing so.

My Pick: Over 89.5

St. Louis Cardinals – 69.5

The one word I would choose to sum up my projection for the 2026 season, for St. Louis, would be, yikes. They sold a lot of their veteran players for future capital, and the summer of 2026 is going to be treated as an extended tryout for the prospects already in house. Any veteran addition will be treated as a rental and will be shipped at the deadline for future capital. Colorado might have some competition for the bottom of the league.

My Pick: Under 69.5

Tampa Bay Rays – 77.5

The Rays are reloading and, unfortunately for them, the rest of their division is primed for a playoff appearance. Every other team in the AL East has a real shot at a deep postseason run. Tampa Bay will likely ship off some of their top producers this season for future capital, further effecting their chance of reaching 78 wins. Take the under.

My Pick: Under 77.5

Texas Rangers – 83.5

Houston is going to be somewhat competitive in the wild card race, and the Mariners are going to own the top spot in the division. So where do the Rangers fit in? They added Brandon Nimmo, MacKenzie Gore, Jakob Junis, and Alexis Diaz, all of whom could take this team to a whole other level competitively. If Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, and Nathan Eovaldi stay healthy, expect even more wins. Texas reloaded this season, and they have a buyer’s mentality.

My Pick: Over 83.5

Toronto Blue Jays – 88.5

The defending AL Champs are going to be on a revenge tour as they not only look to return to the World Series, but they also want to compete for a division crown. However, Baltimore improved, Boston improved, and the Yankees are highly competitive as always. Toronto did boost themselves with the additions of Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto, and now Trey Yesavage will have a full year to fully showcase his talent. Unfortunately, someone is going to have to handout some wins in the division, and with that, Toronto will hit the under on the win total.

My Pick: Under 88.5

Washington Nationals – 65.5

There is nothing exciting about Washington this season. Their graduated prospects underwhelmed and the front office needs to get creative in the years to come to figure out how to get this time back to competing for a playoff spot. Washington fans are in for an ugly season.

My Pick: Under 65.5

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Start:	March 27, 2026 @ 11:45 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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2026 MLB Season Win Total Predictions

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