2023 PGA Picks: Mexico Open Golf Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
The PGA Tour is heading down to Villa Hidalgo, Mexico, for the Mexico Open this weekend. It is the first national open on the 2023 schedule and now offers a purse of 7.7 million dollars, with 500 FedEx Cup points up for grabs. Recent Masters champion Jon Rahm won the inaugural Tour event last year at 17-under par by one stroke over Tony Finau, Brandon Wu, and Kurt Kitayama. This week has a depleted field with the Wells Fargo Championship next weekend and the Byron Nelson and PGA Championship in the weeks after. Only 9 of the top 100 golfers will tee up in Mexico. Rahm will look to defend his title as players such as Wyndham Clark, Gary Woodland, and Tony Finau, amongst others, will look to challenge the Spaniard.
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A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks.
Jon Rahm +260 – Tony Finau +800 – Wyndham Clark +1600 – Gary Woodland +2200
Patrick Rodgers +2800 – Nicolai Hojgaard +3000 – Maverick McNealy +3500 – Byeong Hun An +3500
Beau Hossler +3500 – Stephan Jaeger +4000 – Alex Smalley +4500 – Alex Noren +4500
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
The Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta is the host venue and benefits the long ball. The course is a par 71 and measures over 7,500 yards. Players will face two par-3s over 200 yards, two par-5s over 600 yards, and five par-4s over 475 yards. The field of 144 will be cut down to the top 65 and ties after the first 36 holes. Surviving to the weekend will take some birdie-making ability from long range. The staple of Norman’s design is length on approach. Over 40% of the iron shots come from over 200 yards out. It is a driver’s paradise for long bombers, which is why the defending champion is such a heavy favorite at +260.
I expect Rahm and Finau to be in contention on Sunday with this field as their play speaks for themselves. “Big Tone” comes into this week ranked first in strokes gained on approach, second in birdies or better gained, and is one of the best long-iron players on Tour. This should allow him to make his way around this course with ease. I 100% believe Finau can make a run this week to dethrone Rahm.
Wyndham Clark is in the midst of a career year on the PGA tour. The 29-year-old is one of only four players in this field to rank in the top 10 in both driving distance and long iron proximity. He also ranks third in this entire field in birdies or better gained and first in par-5 scoring. Clark is coming off a third-place finish in New Orleans and finished sixth at the Corales Punta Cana.
Last year, Gary Woodland strolled into Puerta Vallarta as a tournament favorite. He is near the top of the favorite board again and has a real chance to take home the hardware. He is ranked second in the field in approaches over 200 yards and finished T24 last year. Also, averaging 311.6 yards off the tee is good enough for ninth best on tour. His putter was on fire a few weeks ago at the RBC Heritage. Therefore, if that pops up again, it could put him on track to stand at the winner’s circle on Sunday.
Another player to watch out for is Aaron Rai. He won the Scottish Open in coastal conditions and has shown great form in recent weeks. He had the lead in the first round of the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago and T13 in team play last week in New Orleans. With a reputation as a strong long-iron player, he flights the ball well and usually plays difficult courses better than the field average.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week:
Players to win: Finau +800, Clark +1600, Rai +4600
Top 5: Clark +360
Top 10: Woodland +220, Rai +360
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