2025 PGA Picks: Tour Championship Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

Well, that’s about it, folks. The 2024-2025 PGA Tour season is finally coming to an end. The FedEx Cup Fall commenced in the second week of September with the Procore Championship, and here we are nearly a year later, wrapping things up at East Lake in the ATL with the Tour Championship.

Before we get to the betting odds, we have to cover some changes from recent years for this tournament and how we decide a FedEx Cup Champion. For the past six seasons, the PGA Tour has used what they call a starting strokes index to benefit the golfers at the top of the standings.

You’re probably aware of this, but essentially, the leader in the FedEx Cup standings teed off on Thursday morning at 10 under par. The second-place golfer began play at 8 under and so on. This obviously led to a rather anticlimactic Championship, especially with world #1 Scottie Scheffler as the #1 seed.

Thankfully, this system has been scrapped altogether. All 30 golfers remaining in the FedEx Cup Playoffs have the same chance to win the season title. With that said, it probably won't change the actual winner as Scheffler is just that darn good.

Did you see his “chip-in” on the 17th, up just one stroke on Sunday at the BMW Championship? It was 82 feet and not just any 82. It rolled on the green for ¾ of the way, 60 feet! Then, his modest celebration and poker face were about as gangster as you can get on the golf course.

As you might imagine, his betting odds to win the Tour Championship aren’t astronomical, but who cares?

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Tour Championship Winner Betting Odds

Scottie Scheffler: +280

Rory McIlroy: +1000

Tommy Fleetwood: +1500

Ludvig Aberg: +1900

Russell Henley: +2300

Viktor Hovland: +2900

Collin Morikawa: +3100

Sam Burns: +3100

J.J. Spaun:  +3300

Cameron Young: +3400

Justin Thomas: +3600

Hideki Matsuyama: +3600

Ben Griffin: +4100

Patrick Cantlay: +4100

Maverick McNealy: +4100

Robert MacIntyre: +4600

Keegan Bradley: +5100

Harris English: +5600

Justin Rose: +5600

Shane Lowry: +7100

Sungjae Im: +10100

Course Characteristics - East Lake Golf Club

East Lake Golf Club has played host to the PGA Tour Championship every season for more than two decades now, since 2004. Variety is the spice of life, but the most iconic tournaments like The Masters and now the Tour Championship are better with continuity.

They have tightened things up because fans and Tour officials want to see scores closer to even par, but we hear this a lot on the Tour, and still have winning scores in the 20s.

We have Bermuda rough, which always plays tough, but it’s the greens that are even scarier in 2025. The TiFEagle Bermuda greens on paper are projected to be some of the fastest we’ve ever seen on Tour.

Golfers may catch a break this year, though, as scattered thunderstorms and light rain are about 50/50 for each day of the tournament. It looks like mostly in the evening, but this will still slow things down.

Tour Championship Winner Betting Picks

Scottie Scheffler: +280

The ravioli “Scheff” is back again, but this year, he won’t have the starting strokes on his side as a cushion. While he was technically outplayed in 2024 by Collin Morikawa by two strokes, who’s to say he didn’t play things much safer with his safety net hanging down below?

The man has no weaknesses. He isn’t injured. His confidence is probably at an all-time high. He has more wins than anyone on Bermuda surfaces. Just make the bet.

Viktor Hovland: +2900

Norway’s Viktor Hovland won the Tour Championship here just two years ago in 2023 when he matched Scheffler’s 72-hole score of 19 under par, but had 8 starting strokes gained, which secured the win for him at -27. 

He finished 4th here a couple of years prior and 8th last season. His current form is some of his best all season with a 7th place finish on Sunday at the BMW Championship. In 5 Tour Championship starts, Hovland has never finished outside of the top 15. He’s a steal at nearly 30-1. 

Justin Rose: +5600

This last pick to win the Tour Championship was very difficult for me. You can make a great argument to include several golfers. Sam Burns may be the best putter in the field. Tommy Fleetwood is as hot as ever, and he shows up when the lights are the brightest. Rory McIlroy is a 3x Tour Champion.

Justin Rose, though, the winner of the first playoff event, the St. Jude Championship a couple of weeks ago, has just as much ice in his 45-year-old veins as anyone. He finished 30th on Sunday at the BMW, but he's a vet and knew it wouldn't affect his chances at a Tour Championship.

He has finished 4th, 2nd, 10th, and 4th in 5 appearances here at East Lake. It's been a while since then, but the man just proved to us that he's still got it.

Scheffler will probably win, so why not take the most valuable odds with the other selections?

Bonus Bet

Justin Thomas Top Ten Finish: +110

One look at his past performances at East Lake, and this pick makes even more sense than taking Scheffler to win it all. I've heard many of my peers say the same thing, as well. In 8 starts here over the past 9 seasons, Justin Thomas has an average finishing position of 5th with zero outside of the top ten.

Scheffler has 10 career Bermuda wins, but Thomas isn’t far behind with 7. The next highest man on the list, the previously mentioned Burns, only has 4.

My only concern is the American’s current form, which is not good. There are no reported injuries, so let’s take history to repeat itself for the 9th consecutive time.

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