2023 PGA Picks: Tour Championship Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
The PGA Tour season is ending after this upcoming weekend and a winner will be crowned. All that is left is the FedEx Cup Playoffs finale in the Tour Championship, where a total purse of $75 million is up for grabs. This week is a little different compared to every other week on tour. The Tour Championship uses a stroke-based bonus system based on the FedEx Cup standings, meaning everyone does not start at even par. This has been the formula to end the season for the past four years. The top five in the standings is staggered (leader starts at 10 under, 2nd at eight under, 3rd at seven under, 4th at six under and 5th at five under), while the last 25 players are more bunched together at four under to even par. Scottie Scheffler gets the honors of first position and starts at 10 under par. That does not mean he will run away with the tournament. Last year Scheffler held the same spot on the leaderboard, and Rory Mcllroy, who started six strokes back and even triple bogeyed the first hole, came back to win the whole thing. We will break down potential winners below.
Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.
A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks
Scottie Scheffler +130 – Rory Mcllroy +330 – Viktor Hovland +500 – Jon Rahm +800
Patrick Cantlay +1600 – Xander Schauffele +2800 – Max Homa +2800 – Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Lucas Glover +4000 – Wyndham Clark +5000 – Brian Harman +5000 – Tommy Fleetwood +5500
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
The top-30 players head to Atlanta, Georgia where East Lake has hosted the Tour Championship since 2004. East Lake Golf Club was an original Donald Ross design that was renovated in 2016 by Rees Jones. It can be a challenging course where water comes into play on several holes. The most difficult aspect is the narrow fairways, which are penalizing to miss. It plays as a par 70 measures a little over 7,300 yards.
Rory Mcllroy +330
Rory starts this week only three strokes back, which is half as many strokes he was giving to Scheffler last year. Mcllroy was able to chase him down and win the whole thing by a single stroke despite starting with a triple bogey on the first day. He shot 67 or better in all four rounds last year and has as much experience at this course as anyone in the field. Rory can take Scheffler down again.
Viktor Hovland (+500)
Hovland is in second position and sits only two strokes behind Scheffler. He has all the momentum in his favor after winning the BMW Championship and setting a course-record of 61 on Sunday. He finished T5 here two years ago and T15 last season, shooting only one round above par in that span at East Lake. Two shots are a small gap and Hovland can easily overtake Scheffler on Thursday.
Jon Rahm (+800)
Jon Rahm starts the week only four shots behind Scheffler and he is a player that can heat up in a hurry on any given day. He finished in second-place in 2021 behind Patrick Cantlay while firing off two rounds of 65 and two rounds of 68. He struggled here last season with rounds of 71 on Saturday and Sunday, but he did fire a 63 in Round 2. Rahm’s good enough to erase this deficit on Day 1.
Max Homa (+2800)
Homa will be in the same position that Mcllroy was last year sitting six strokes behind the leader. Last year he shot a 71 for his opening round and followed that up with 62, 66 and 66 to finish T5. He held the lead last week at the BMW Championship in large part to an 8-under 62 on Friday. He cooled off on the weekend but still finished in 5th. It is not impossible for Homa to win this thing on Sunday.
Sungjae Im (+9000)
It is hard to really trust true underdogs with this staggering format but I will bite on Im. He starts eight strokes behind Scheffler to start this week. He shot 67, 65, 66 and 66 last year at East Lake. It will take another performance like that or even better to come back this year.
Golf Picks - Who to Consider This Week:
To win: Mcllroy, Hovland, Rahm, Homa, Im
Top 5: Homa (+300)
Top 10: Homa (-110), Im (+230)