PGA Picks: Tour Championship Golf Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

We have reached the end of the road for this PGA Tour season with the Tour Championship. As per usual, this event is being held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

The field is set at 30, and it is a weighted or staggered format, based on the players' current position in the FedExCup race. Here are the standings and where every golfer will start the tournament.

10 under: Patrick Cantlay

8 under: Tony Finau

7 under: Bryson DeChambeau

6 under: Jon Rahm

5 under: Cameron Smith

4 under: Justin Thomas, Harris English, Abraham Ancer, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns

3 under: Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson

2 under: Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Brooks Koepka

1 under: Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Stewart Cink, Joaquin Niemann, Scottie Scheffler,

Even par: Daniel Berger, Erik van Rooyen, Sergio Garcia, Billy Horschel, Patrick Reed

There is a good reason to fight to make this field. Whoever finishes 30th or last, will receive a check for $395,000. (Not joking) The 8th place finisher will take home 1.1 million and the consolation prize for finishing 2nd is 5 million. The big winner and we mean BIG, will collect 15 million! Might want to start taking your kid(s) to the driving range and see what they have.

Get free golf picks for every event on Doc’s Sports PGA golf picks page.

A Look at the Field

Here is a look at the Top 10 with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks.

Jon Rahm +375 - Patrick Cantlay +400 - Bryson DeChambeau +550

Tony Finau +750 - Justin Thomas +1800 - Cameron Smith +2500 - Rory Mcllroy +2500

Dustin Johnson +2500 - Jordan Spieth +2800 - Xander Schauffele +3300

As you can see in the chart above, Rahm is the favorite despite starting four strokes off the pace. Rahm’s skill and reputation make him a threat. However, we wonder just a little bit if he closes the gap coming into Sunday, with below-average finishes in the previous two playoff events.

Cantlay is a definite threat as the leader. However, he had a historic putting week, and I wonder if he can keep that going two weeks in a row.

For DeChambeau, it is all about steering the long drives into the fairway. These types of courses have historically not been good for him.

Taking Finua to win is not simple unless you think he can win twice in three weeks after not winning since 2016.

Thomas and Spieth are six shots back, but both have the capabilities to get hot and put pressure on the leaders.

Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets

East Lake is a fair test of golf with its classic design. The par 70 layout covers 7,346 yards, which is good by today’s standards. For the pros, they are faced with tree-lined narrow fairways, uneven lies, tricky bermuda rough, and speedy greens.

The first obstacle for all players is keeping the ball in the fairway. Annually, the percentage of drives off the tee that land in the short grass is in the low 50s for percent, which is below normal.

If the pros hit the fairway, 80 percent of the time they land in the greens. However, despite the rough being not overly long, though thick, less than half those shot attempts (48%) land on the putting surface. Keeping the ball in the fairway is imperative to scoring.

The greens are average size and fast, but most are raised, so missing greens means scrambling for pars instead of putting for birdies.

To recap, hit the ball straight, place the ball on the putting surface, and make putts. Sounds simple, but those that are less accurate and like to bomb away could have a tough four days unless they can scramble like madmen.

Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week

Because of the quality of the players and limited field, making golf picks is more challenging. With the staggered field, anyone back more than six shots would be a real long shot. Could it happen, yes, but figuring who is the dilemma. That’s why Cantlay, Rahm and Thomas make the most sense.

Because of low odds, Thomas could be a good play for Top 5 without minus odds and the same for Viktor Hovland and or Brooks Koepka for a Top 10.

Otherwise, tournament head-to-heads are of interest, and two names to consider are Abraham Ancer and Xander Schauffele against those where the starting deficit is no more than three shots.

One last thing; some sportsbooks will offer betting odds like a regular tournament. If so, that could be the best way of all to bet this, and that is where Rahm, Thomas, Ancer and Schauffele could make you some cash.

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Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports was in the golf business for over 20+ years and understands the ins and outs of what it takes to find winners on the Tour. Doug enters the final tourney of the year having won two of the last three weeks. 

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Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has - 21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 94 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 25 Handicapper of the Month Awards. (Latest: MLB May 2021) Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several football newsletters.