Tennis Betting Systems
by Christopher G. Shepard - 10/05/2007
For Americans it's a time for the MLB playoffs, the NFL season is in full swing and the NHL and NBA are about to begin, not to mention all the college sports on any given Saturday. However, the marquee sports are not the only places you can realize a profit from sports investment. In fact, one of the more popular sports to wager on around the world is on the fuzzy round ball played between the alleys. Yes, I am talking about tennis. In this article I'll look at tennis betting systems with an approximate strike rate of 60 percent.
There are a few basics you need to know before you lay a cent on the money line using this tennis betting system. There are three standard bets in tennis. You have the future bet where you are betting on one player to win the current tournament. You can also bet individual match-ups where each player is given a money line, much like you would see in baseball or football; the difference being that in tennis the money line for a favorite like Federer vs. an unranked player is prohibitive and rarely worth the risk as it could get as high as 5k, 10k, or even 20k on a single match. Then there is set betting where you are predicting not only who will win the individual match but also in how many sets.
Keep in mind not all tennis tournaments are equal. You should make sure before you place your bet that you know what type of tournament it is. There are the marquee tournaments known as "Grand Slams" which require players to win best of five sets; meaning they must win three sets to win the match. Then there are the traditional tournaments (best of three sets) that happen year round and also Davis Cup (team International play). Finally, you should know that women only play the best of three sets in their tournaments.
Even if you have only a passing interest in tennis you notice that certain players win on certain surfaces. Why does Rafael Nadal dominate on clay courts and Federer on Grass? Despite being considered among the greatest tennis players ever, Sampras and Federer never won on clay at the French Open, but won more than four consecutive Wimbledon's, which is played on grass? When handicapping tennis futures, matches, and set betting, you should be intimately familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of each player on the surface the tournament is played. For instance on clay, the tennis ball is slowed down considerably so that the surface favors players who are in top condition and are able to win long rallies and go for a full five sets (for this reason the Spanish seem to do very well on clay) while grass generally favors players with big serves and excellent volleying ability.
The reason any tennis betting system works, as system bettors will tell you, is that they take advantage of short-term fluctuations of probability. Implementing a tennis betting system is dicey at best since for any given match there are many variables. Here is one of many tennis betting systems that produces an approximate strike rate of between 60-66 percent. I call this the Price Level Tennis Betting System, a relatively simple system to use that relies on backing favorites above a certain price level in which the variation between the two players' odds is 50 cents or greater.
For instance in a match from last Oct.30, Schiavone was the favorite set at 1.63 against Shaughnessy who was set at 2.7. The correct bet was Schiavone since she was the favorite with odds greater than 50 cents. Conversely, on the same day Sugiyama was installed at the 1.82 favorite against Daniilidou at 2.2, less than 50 cents I was looking for therefore the Price Level system dictates I lay off.
By considering surface, the players and their conditioning, type of tournament, and the Price Level Tennis Betting System I have outlined you should be able to realize a consistent profit when betting tennis even if you only like to bet the Slams. Who knows you might even stop betting on the marquee sports.