Betting On Emmy Award Winning Shows and Actors
by Robert Ferringo - 08/25/2006
Here's Doc's Sports look at the 58th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards. The ceremony airs this Sunday at 8 p.m. EST on NBC. The Emmy Award winning shows and actors are selected by the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences.
(Odds posted at Pinnacle Sportsbook)
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Steve Carell ("The Office"): -176
Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"): +501
Kevin James ("King of Hearts"): +1640
Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm"): +531
Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men"): +1640
Shalhoub is the defending champ, but no one has repeated in this category since Michael J. Fox did so from "Family Ties" in the late 80s. Wow. How old am I? Larry David may finally break through, but I doubt it because he is arguably not even the funniest character on his own show. Sheen is out. Something about murdering hookers, beating and threatening your amazingly smokin' wife, and week-long coke binges tend to turn voters off. Well, most voters.
I have to go with the chalk here. Carrell has had a phenomenal run over the past 18 months, parlaying his fame from "The Daily Show" to success on both "The Office" and several outstanding roles on the Big Screen. I think his selection here is the culmination of a year's worth of laughs.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Stockard Channing ("Out of Practice"): +525
Lisa Kudrow ("Comeback"): +389
Julia Louise Dreyfus ("New Adventures of Old Christine"): +479
Debra Messing ("Will & Grace"): +723
Jane Kaczmarek ("Malcolm in the Middle"): +138
Kaczmarek is the favorite, but I like the value on both Kudrow and Messing. Since "Will & Grace" is over, she may get a sympathy nod for her years of exceptional work. She did win the award in 2002-03 as well. As for Kudrow, I saw some early odds that had her listed at -200, so to see such a swing I have to wonder if there is something fishy going on. According to those early odds, Kaczmarek was posted at the second-highest odds. Again, that's a curious disparity. If this were sports betting, that would be a clear indication that Kaczmarek is a lock. But this isn't sports betting, so I don't know what it means. I just know the value play is Kudrow.
Best Comedy Series
"The Office": -115
"Arrested Development": +295
"Curb Your Enthusiasm": +924
"Two and a Half Men": +1605
Watch for the upset by "Arrested Development". The show was finally given its death blow by television executives, so this could be a way for the Academy to give one final "screw you" to the suits. I'll be surprised if "The Office" wins, even if it is the favorite. It's openly accepted that it's a weaker, watered-down version of the British original so the Academy would be making an international statement if they gave the show the nod. Plus, though it is popular I just don't know if it has the depth of past winners. Watch for "Curb". These are great odds for a show that, as fresh and witty as it has been, has never won the award. It would also be retribution by the Academy for picking "Frasier" over "Seinfeld" for all those years.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"): -200
Kiefer Sutherland ("24"): +454
Peter Krause ("Six Feet Under"): +1538
Chris Meloni ("Law & Order SVU"): +910
Martin Sheen ("West Wing"): +1417
The following statements on this category were written by myself and posted on our site last September (Google it):
"However, how about a write-in vote for Denis Leary and his gripping portrayal of firefighter Tommy Gavin in "Rescue Me"? I don't pimp too many shows (It's on Fx on Tuesday at 10 p.m.), but "Rescue Me" is one of the best on TV. It features strong emotion, compelling storylines, surreal encounters, and some of the best writing you'll find. In fact, I can't think of too many shows in the last four or five years that capture the tone, topics and subtleties of male conversations like this one. Maybe next year."
I think you know who I'm betting on.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Geena Davis ("Commander in Chief"): +314
Frances Conroy ("Six Feet Under"): +294
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer"): +287
Allison Janney ("West Wing"): +471
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order SVU"): +698
Like the Comedy category, this one is a toss-up. I like Sedgwick in this spot. Though she does look like a fish, she carries an otherwise clumsy show. Hargitay is getting tremendous odds here as well. My wife is a huge SVU fan and Hargitay had an outstanding year on the show. She would be an astute play at fabulous odds. Last year Patricia Arquette took the hardware despite having the third-best odds, so an upset isn't beyond the realm. Davis is a dark horse. That was a daring show and, according to the ratings and critical reviews, a success. She is graceful and is the type of actress the Academy wants to recognize.
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