Golf Betting Strategy and Handicapping Advice: Tips for Turning a Profit
So, you want to bet on golf, eh?
For starters, you've come to the right place because here at Doc's Sports we have a tremendous team of golf handicappers ready to help you turn your hard-earned money into some serious profit and help you build your bankroll for what really matters most - football season. You can join in on the winning golf season and build your bankroll up by clicking here.
Related: Golf Betting Systems
Golf isn't like any other sport to bet on. In most cases, a game is played between two teams, and the team with the most points, runs, goals, etc. wins. Golf is a game that features well over 120 participants in any given tournament. And while the goal of shooting the lowest total over the course of four rounds is constant from week to week, the circumstances surrounding each tournament are completely different.
Every week, as the PGA Tour makes its stops at various golf courses across the United States, the emphasis on a certain aspect of a golfer's game changes. One week - at a course like Bethpage Black - driving distance is a big factor, and guys like Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson, who can drive the ball a mile, are key guys to look out for. And then the following week, on a course like TPC River Highlands, which is almost 600 yards shorter than Bethpage, the emphasis will change to guys who are in the fairway often and accurate with their short irons. However, it's important to keep in mind that these golfers are in fact human, and stats can only take you so far. Look at the 2019 US Open winner, Gary Woodland. Woodland entered the tournament ranked 169th in the world in scrambling. After four rounds and a -13 finish, Woodland led the field in scrambling, which if you watched any part of the tournament, you'd know how vital scrambling was to Woodland's success.
The point of the article is to prove you, the reader and golf bettor, with tips on how to approach upcoming golf tournaments. As I mentioned, everything can change week to week, but the approach to finding that handful of golfers who have the best chance of winning stays the same.
Related: How To Read Golf Odds
Spread the Wealth Around
Betting on golf is essentially a numbers game despite all your hard work and dedication to the research that you put into capping any given tournament. Because the fields are so big (more than 120 players in most events), the chances of you hitting an outright winner by betting $100 on one guy you really like are very slim. You need to have a good bankroll, and you need to be able to spread the wealth around to a handful of players that you feel could provide a good return on your investment.
There are a few different ways you can go about covering your bases. You can start by taking the top three or four guys in the field and hoping one of the favorites can pull through and give you a small ROI. It's never a bad idea to bet on the top golfers in the world. However, considering only one of them can win and their odds are extremely low, you will go broke in no time if you go an extended period of time without hitting a winner.
The way I suggest betting outright winners is by selecting one top guy - this can be your stud - and then selecting two or three mid-range guys (25-40/1) and one or two long shots depending on your bankroll. That way you have the board covered and all it takes is one or two mid-range winners or long shot to have you playing with house money the rest of the golf season.
Hit the Tournament Matchups Hard
Tournament matchups are also a great way to make money without having to hope your player outlasts all 120+ other golfers in a tournament. I understand the most golf bettors are in the game for hitting outright winners as you can bet head-to-head matchups in every other sport, but the fact of the matter is that you can hit a high percentage of head-to-head winners and build your bankroll up if you do your research and trust your instincts.
There are so many things that go into finding a head-to-head winner, but some of the factors I look for are course history, current form, and if there is going to be any sort of weather issues over the course of the tournament. Some guys just perform well at certain courses, while others really struggle to make it fit their eye. Guys like Bubba Watson at TPC Highlands (where he's won three times already) make for a good play on wager against guys who haven't fared well at this course in the past.
Find the Right Value
I wrote a piece a few days ago to help bettors understand 'expected value' . I recommend giving that piece a read to help better your understanding regarding finding value in golf betting. To make a long story short, if you feel that your golfer has a 10 percent chance of winning the tournament, and you plug the +1200 odds you are getting from the sportsbook into the expected value formula, you would notice that the sportsbook is only paying out as if the golfer has a 7.69 percent of winning the tournament. As you know sportsbooks will always pay out more money, the less likely something is to happen, which is when you will realize that this is, in fact, a good bet to make.
Finding value in golf is extremely important because from week to week, the same golfer could have different odds based on the course he is about to play. Never wager on him if he is getting lower odds than you value him at, and always jump in when he's at or above the odds you feel comfortable backing him at.
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