Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Free MLB Picks & Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 4/19/2014
Sunday, April 20, 2:20 PM on FSOH, WCIU
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
Cincinnati - Bailey, H (0-1) vs. Chicago - Villanueva, C (1-3)
For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here
Cincinnati's Homer Bailey (0-1) is hoping the Easter Bunny finally brings him a win on Sunday but rest assured the schedule maker filled his basket with a matchup against the Cubs and Carlos Villanueva (1-3). Bailey hasn't paid off on his end of the deal in his first three starts since signing a 6-year, $105 million contract in the offseason. The 27-year-old has given up 4, 4, and 5 ER to begin 2014 while being unable to get out of the 5th inning in any start. What's worse is that the Reds have gotten a lead in each game with Bailey unable to hold on as his ERA balloons to 8.16.
Relief could come in the form of the Chicago Cubs, as it usually does for struggling pitchers. A year ago Bailey was 2-0 in 3 starts against the Cubbies, allowing 6 runs in 20 1/3 for a 2.66 ERA. Nate Schierholtz has had success against Bailey, hitting 7 for 15 with 2 doubles and a HR but the Cubs as a whole are hitting just .223 against the pitcher.
If you can say anything positive about Villanueva it's that he's probably fresh. In his last start against St. Louis the pitcher gave up 9 runs on 10 hits and had his day end after the 3rd inning. Through 2 relief appearances and 2 starts Villanueva has pitched just 9.1 innings allowing 12 runs for an 11.57 ERA. To be fair the start before the Cardinals game Villanueva did pitch 5 innings of 1 run ball against the Phillies so there is hope for Chicago.
Villanueva appeared in 5 games against the Reds, starting two and going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA. On April 23rd of last year Villanueva started and pitched into the 9th allowing just 2 runs in a 4-2 Cubs 10-inning win. His second start two weeks later had a different outcome as Cincinnati scored 4 runs in 5 2/3 to deal Villanueva the loss.
Cincinnati Betting Trends
Cincinnati is 7-8-1 against the Over/Under
Run differential for Cincinnati is +0.6
Chicago Betting Trends
Chicago is 7-7-1 against the Over/Under
Run differential for Chicago is -1.1
Injuries to Watch
04/18/14 2B Brandon Phillips Back questionable
04/09/14 P Trevor Bell Elbow 15-day DL (4/08)
04/02/14 P Brett Marshall Finger 60-day DL (3/30)
03/31/14 P Aroldis Chapman Concussion 15-day DL (3/21)
03/28/14 3B Jack Hannahan Shoulder 60-day DL (3/30)
03/28/14 P Mat Latos Knee 15-day DL (3/21)
03/28/14 P Sean Marshall Shoulder 15-day DL (3/21)
03/28/14 2B Skip Schumaker Shoulder 15-day DL (3/22)
03/31/14 P James McDonald Shoulder 60-day DL (2/23)
03/28/14 P Jake Arrieta Shoulder 15-day DL (3/21)
03/28/14 P Kyuji Fujikawa Elbow 15-day DL (3/21)
Guy's Pick: Take Cincinnati
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