Saturday, September 24, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Aaron Blair vs. Wei-Yin Chen
The Atlanta Braves visit Marlins Park on Saturday to play the Miami Marlins. The probable starters are Aaron Blair for the Braves and Wei-Yin Chen for the Marlins. The opening line for this matchup has Atlanta at +137 and Miami at -147. The over/under was set at 8.5. The Braves have a 79-65-9 over/under record and a 80-73-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 52% of the time. The Marlins are 72-81-0 against the run line and have a 75-72-6 over/under record. They cover the spread 47% of the time.
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The Braves head into this matchup with a 62-91 record, including 36-42 on the road. Starting pitcher Aaron Blair has a 1-6 record with an earned run average of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.68. He has 36 strikeouts over his 60.2 innings pitched and he has given up 72 hits so far this season. He has allowed 10.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 6.24. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.07 and they have given up 516 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .248 against the bullpen while being struck out 515 times and walking 246 times this season. As a team, Atlanta has allowed 8.83 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.56 batters per nine. They are 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.56. The Braves pitchers have collectively given up 1,351 base hits and 698 earned runs. They have allowed 170 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Atlanta as a pitching staff has walked 522 batters and struck out 1,157. They walk 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit is 4.33.
As a team, Atlanta is batting .254, good for 17th in the league while putting together a .249 average away from home. The Braves hold a .382 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .320 which is good for 17th in baseball. They rank 14th in baseball with 8.74 hits per game. Freddie Freeman comes into this game hitting .303 and his on-base percentage is at .398. He has 171 hits this season along with 94 runs scored and 85 runs batted in. He's struck out 163 times and has walked 83 times. Nick Markakis is hitting .270 and he has an on-base percentage of .346. He has totaled 156 hits so far while scoring 64 runs and he's driven in 87. He has walked 68 times and has struck out 97 times. The Braves have 1,337 hits, including 284 doubles and 113 home runs. They've stolen 69 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 34 times. Atlanta has walked 476 times this season and they've struck out 1,169 times as a unit. They've left 1,109 men on base and have a team OPS of .702. They score 3.99 runs per contest and have scored a total of 610 runs so far this year.
Miami comes into this matchup with a 38-37 home record and a 76-77 overall mark. With an earned run average of 5.04, Wei-Yin Chen has a 5-4 record and a 1.29 WHIP. He has 92 strikeouts over the 114.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 124 hits. He has allowed 9.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.56. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.57 and they have given up 454 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .230 against the Marlins bullpen while being struck out 533 times and walking 242 times this season. As a team, Miami has allowed 8.45 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.67 batters per nine. They are 9th in the league in team earned run average at 3.98. The Marlins pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,281 base knocks and 604 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 143 home runs this year and they give up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a staff has walked 557 hitters and struck out 1,315. They give up a walk 3.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.35 while their FIP as a staff is 3.92.
As a team, they are batting .263, good for 5th in the league while putting together a .251 average at home. The Marlins hold a .395 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .322 which is good for 15th in baseball. They rank 4th in baseball with 9.09 hits per contest. Martin Prado comes into this matchup batting .308 and he has an OBP of .364. He has 178 hits this year along with 68 runs scored and 71 RBI. He's struck out 66 times and has walked on 49 occasions. Christian Yelich is hitting .298 and he has an OBP of .373. He has collected 164 hits so far while he's scored 74 runs and drove in 95. He has earned a walk 65 times and has punched out 134 times. The Marlins as a unit have 1,391 base hits, including 250 doubles and 122 homers. They have 61 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 24 times. Miami as a team has walked 420 times this year and they have struck out 1,156 times. They've had 1,111 men left on base and have an OPS of .717. They score 4.07 runs per game and have totaled 622 runs so far this season.
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
The Atlanta Braves are 79-65-9 against the over/under so far this season
The Atlanta Braves are 80-73-0 against the run line so far this season
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Miami Marlins are 75-72-6 against the over/under so far this season
The Miami Marlins are 72-81-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
09/22/16 P Jose A. Ramirez Suspension 3-gane suspension, eligible to return Saturday vs. Miami Marlins
09/18/16 P Rob Whalen Shoulder 60-day DL (8/25)
09/17/16 C A.J. Pierzynski Hamstring 60-day DL (9/11)
09/14/16 C Williams Perez Tricep "?" for next start
09/13/16 P Mike Foltynewicz Calf "?" for next start
09/02/16 P Eric O'Flaherty Elbow 60-day DL (8/18)
08/31/16 P Arodys Vizcaino Shoulder 15-day DL (8/29)
08/01/16 P Matt Marksberry Shoulder 60-day DL (7/31)
04/12/16 P Daniel Winkler Elbow 60-day DL (4/11)
04/04/16 P Andrew McKirahan Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Paco Rodriguez Elbow out for season
08/14/16 P Adam Conley Finger 15-day DL (8/14)
05/15/16 P Kendry Flores Shoulder 15-day DL (5/15)
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Braves
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