Monday, September 19, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Rick Porcello vs. Dylan Bundy
The Boston Red Sox visit Oriole Park on Monday to play the Baltimore Orioles. The probable starters are Rick Porcello for the Red Sox and Dylan Bundy for the Orioles. The opening line for this matchup has Boston at -129 and Baltimore at +119. The over/under was set at 9. The Red Sox have a 75-67-6 over/under record and a 76-72-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 51% of the time. The Orioles are 77-71-0 against the run line and have a 65-79-4 over/under record. They cover the spread 52% of the time.
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The Red Sox head into this matchup with a 84-64 record, including 39-32 on the road. Starting pitcher Rick Porcello has a 20-4 record with an earned run average of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.00. He has 167 strikeouts over his 201.2 innings pitched and he has given up 173 hits so far this season. He has allowed 7.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.45. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.66 and they have given up 380 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .234 against the bullpen while being struck out 465 times and walking 173 times this season. As a team, Boston has allowed 8.48 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.45 batters per nine. They are 13th in the league in team earned run average at 4.08. The Red Sox pitchers have collectively given up 1,239 base hits and 596 earned runs. They have allowed 164 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Boston as a pitching staff has walked 445 batters and struck out 1,235. They walk 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.5 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.28 and their FIP as a unit is 4.04.
As a team, Boston is batting .286, good for 1st in the league while putting together a .268 average away from home. The Red Sox hold a .470 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .352 which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in baseball with 10.07 hits per game. Xander Bogaerts comes into this game hitting .299 and his on-base percentage is at .356. He has 180 hits this season along with 109 runs scored and 88 runs batted in. He's struck out 110 times and has walked 50 times. Mookie Betts is hitting .314 and he has an on-base percentage of .355. He has totaled 196 hits so far while scoring 112 runs and he's driven in 106. He has walked 41 times and has struck out 80 times. The Red Sox have 1,490 hits, including 329 doubles and 193 home runs. They've stolen 78 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 22 times. Boston has walked 504 times this season and they've struck out 1,063 times as a unit. They've left 1,065 men on base and have a team OPS of .821. They score 5.57 runs per contest and have scored a total of 825 runs so far this year.
Baltimore comes into this matchup with a 46-27 home record and a 81-67 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.88, Dylan Bundy has a 9-5 record and a 1.40 WHIP. He has 96 strikeouts over the 99.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 100 hits. He has allowed 9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.62. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.59 and they have given up 466 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .246 against the Orioles bullpen while being struck out 455 times and walking 195 times this season. As a team, Baltimore has allowed 8.99 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.78 batters per nine. They are 20th in the league in team earned run average at 4.39. The Orioles pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,304 base knocks and 636 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 172 home runs this year and they give up 1.2 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Baltimore as a staff has walked 503 hitters and struck out 1,128. They give up a walk 3.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.39 while their FIP as a staff is 4.38.
As a team, they are batting .259, good for 11th in the league while putting together a .265 average at home. The Orioles hold a .449 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .320 which is good for 17th in baseball. They rank 13th in baseball with 8.84 hits per contest. Adam Jones comes into this matchup batting .275 and he has an OBP of .318. He has 154 hits this year along with 83 runs scored and 80 RBI. He's struck out 104 times and has walked on 35 occasions. Manny Machado is hitting .304 and he has an OBP of .353. He has collected 178 hits so far while he's scored 100 runs and drove in 92. He has earned a walk 45 times and has punched out 108 times. The Orioles as a unit have 1,307 base hits, including 249 doubles and 234 homers. They have 17 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 11 times. Baltimore as a team has walked 429 times this year and they have struck out 1,206 times. They've had 965 men left on base and have an OPS of .769. They score 4.72 runs per game and have totaled 699 runs so far this season.
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
The Boston Red Sox are 75-67-6 against the over/under so far this season
The Boston Red Sox are 76-72-0 against the run line so far this season
Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles are 65-79-4 against the over/under so far this season
The Baltimore Orioles are 77-71-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
Boston Red Sox
09/18/16 DH David Ortiz Foot "?" Sunday vs. New York Yankees
09/07/16 P Steven Wright Shoulder out indefinitely
06/17/16 2B Josh Rutledge Knee 60-day DL (6/15)
06/07/16 P Carson Smith Elbow 60-day DL (5/15)
06/06/16 C Blake Swihart Ankle 60-day DL (6/5)
05/03/16 3B Pablo Sandoval Shoulder 60-day DL (4/11); out for season
04/04/16 P Brandon Workman Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
09/17/16 RF Mark Trumbo Back "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay Rays
09/15/16 RF Steve Pearce Elbow out indefinitely
09/01/16 RF Joey Rickard Thumb 60-day DL (7/21)
08/13/16 P Darren O'Day Shoulder 15-day DL (8/12)
Tony's Pick: Take the Red Sox
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