Thursday, April 7, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Joe Kelly vs. Danny Salazar
The Boston Red Sox visit Progressive Field on Thursday to play the Cleveland Indians. The probable starters are Joe Kelly for the Red Sox and Danny Salazar for the Indians. The opening line for this matchup has Boston at +125 and Cleveland at -135. The over/under was set at 8. The Red Sox had a 83-73-6 over/under record last season and a 79-83-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 49% of the time. The Indians were 79-82-0 against the run line and had a 79-80-2 over/under record. They covered the spread 49% of the time.
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The Red Sox head into this matchup coming off a 78 - 84 season, including 35-46 on the road. Starting pitcher Joe Kelly had a 10 - 6 record with an earned run average of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.44. He had 110 strikeouts over his 134.1 innings pitched and he also gave up 145 hits over that time period. He allowed 9.7 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 4.18. The bullpen had an earned run average of 4.24 and they gave up 511 base hits on the year. Teams hit .261 against the bullpen while being struck out 433 times and walking 190 times last season. As a team, Boston allowed 9.23 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.57 batters per nine. They were 25th in the league in team earned run average at 4.34. The Red Sox pitchers collectively gave up 1,486 base hits and 694 earned runs last year. They allowed 178 home runs last season and they allowed 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Boston as a pitching staff walked 478 batters and struck out 1,218. They walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.6 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit was 4.17.
As a team, Boston batted .265, good for 6th in the league while putting together a .241 average away from home. The Red Sox held a .415 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .325 which was good for 4th in baseball. They ranked 2nd in baseball with 9.23 hits per game. David Ortiz hit .273 last season and his on-base percentage was at .360. He had 144 hits last season along with 73 runs scored and 108 runs batted in. He struck out 95 times and walked 77 times. Xander Bogaerts hit .320 and he had an on-base percentage of .355 last year. He totaled 196 hits while scoring 84 runs and he drove in 81. He walked 32 times and struck out 101 times. The Red Sox had 1,495 hits, including 294 doubles, 33 triples, and 161 home runs. They stole 71 bases while they were thrown out stealing 27 times. Boston walked 478 times last season and they struck out 1,148 times as a unit. They left 1,142 men on base and had a team OPS of .740. They scored 4.62 runs per contest and scored a total of 748 runs last season.
Cleveland comes into this matchup after having a 39-41 home record and a 81 - 80 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 3.45, Danny Salazar will come into this game after holding a 14 - 10 record and a 1.13 WHIP. He had 195 strikeouts over the 185 innings he pitched during which he gave up 156 hits. He allowed 7.6 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 3.62. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.12 and they gave up 416 base hits last year. Teams hit .239 against the Indians bullpen while being struck out 438 times and walking 150 times last season. As a team, Cleveland allowed 8 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.84 batters per nine. They were 8th in the league in team earned run average at 3.68. The Indians pitchers as a team surrendered 1,274 base knocks and 584 earned runs last season. They gave up 161 home runs last year and they gave up 1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cleveland as a staff walked 425 hitters and struck out 1,407. They gave up a walk 2.7 times per 9 innings while they struck out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.19 while their FIP as a staff was 3.62.
As a team, they hit .256, good for 10th in the league while putting together a .274 average at home. The Indians held a .401 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .325 which was good for 6th in baseball. They ranked 12th in baseball with 8.66 hits per contest. Carlos Santana batted .231 last season and he had an OBP of .357. He had 127 hits last year along with 72 runs scored and 85 RBI. He struck out 122 times and walked on 108 occasions. Jason Kipnis hit .303 and he had an OBP of .372. He collected 171 hits last year while he scored 86 runs and drove in 52. He earned a walk 57 times and punched out 107 times. The Indians as a unit had 1,395 base hits last year, including 303 doubles, 29 triples, and 141 homers. They had 86 stolen bases while they were thrown out 28 times. Cleveland as a team walked 533 times last year and they struck out 1,157 times. They had 1,147 men left on base and had an OPS of .725. They scored 4.16 runs per game and totaled 669 runs last season.
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
The Boston Red Sox were 83-73-6 against the over/under last season
The Boston Red Sox were 79-83-0 against the run line last season
Cleveland Indians Betting Trends
The Cleveland Indians were 79-80-2 against the over/under last season
The Cleveland Indians were 79-82-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
Boston Red Sox
04/04/16 P Brandon Workman Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Carson Smith Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Eduardo Rodrigue Knee Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (4/2)
04/03/16 C Christian Vazquez Elbow Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/05/16 P Tommy Hunter Side Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/26)
04/04/16 3B Lonnie Chisenhall Arm out indefinitely
04/04/16 LF Michael Brantley Shoulder out indefinitely
Josh's Pick: Take the Indians
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