Saturday, October 1, 2016
Great American Ball Park
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Probable Pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Tim Adleman
The Chicago Cubs visit Great American Ball Park on Saturday to play the Cincinnati Reds. The probable starters are Jon Lester for the Cubs and Tim Adleman for the Reds. The Cubs have a 72-79-8 over/under record and a 85-74-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 54% of the time. The Reds are 84-75-0 against the run line and have a 84-65-10 over/under record. They cover the spread 53% of the time.
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The Cubs head into this matchup with a 101-57 record, including 44-33 on the road. Starting pitcher Jon Lester has a 19-4 record with an earned run average of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.00. He has 191 strikeouts over his 197.2 innings pitched and he has given up 148 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.35. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.49 and they have given up 358 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .208 against the bullpen while being struck out 508 times and walking 195 times this season. As a team, Chicago has allowed 6.92 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.9 batters per nine. They are 1st in the league in team earned run average at 3.09. The Cubs pitchers have collectively given up 1,104 base hits and 497 earned runs. They have allowed 161 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Chicago as a pitching staff has walked 486 batters and struck out 1,417. They walk 3.1 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.11 and their FIP as a unit is 3.77.
As a team, Chicago is batting .256, good for 15th in the league while putting together a .259 average away from home. The Cubs hold a .428 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .343 which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 17th in baseball with 8.7 hits per game. Kris Bryant comes into this game hitting .293 and his on-base percentage is at .387. He has 174 hits this season along with 120 runs scored and 101 runs batted in. He's struck out 152 times and has walked 74 times. Anthony Rizzo is hitting .292 and he has an on-base percentage of .386. He has totaled 167 hits so far while scoring 92 runs and he's driven in 106. He has walked 74 times and has struck out 105 times. The Cubs have 1,384 hits, including 288 doubles and 194 home runs. They've stolen 65 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 33 times. Chicago has walked 640 times this season and they've struck out 1,314 times as a unit. They've left 1,199 men on base and have a team OPS of .772. They score 4.97 runs per contest and have scored a total of 790 runs so far this year.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup with a 37-41 home record and a 67-92 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.90, Tim Adleman has a 3-4 record and a 1.18 WHIP. He has 43 strikeouts over the 64.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 58 hits. He has allowed 8.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.5. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 5.04 and they have given up 562 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .253 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 512 times and walking 289 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 9.11 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.73 batters per nine. They are 27th in the league in team earned run average at 4.88. The Reds pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,432 base knocks and 768 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 253 home runs this year and they give up 1.6 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff has walked 620 hitters and struck out 1,216. They give up a walk 3.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.45 while their FIP as a staff is 5.23.
As a team, they are batting .257, good for 14th in the league while putting together a .259 average at home. The Reds hold a .409 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .317 which is good for 23rd in baseball. They rank 19th in baseball with 8.7 hits per contest. Brandon Phillips comes into this matchup batting .291 and he has an OBP of .320. He has 160 hits this year along with 74 runs scored and 64 RBI. He's struck out 68 times and has walked on 18 occasions. Joey Votto is hitting .324 and he has an OBP of .435. He has collected 176 hits so far while he's scored 99 runs and drove in 92. He has earned a walk 108 times and has punched out 119 times. The Reds as a unit have 1,382 base hits, including 270 doubles and 162 homers. They have 134 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 51 times. Cincinnati as a team has walked 443 times this year and they have struck out 1,260 times. They've had 998 men left on base and have an OPS of .725. They score 4.42 runs per game and have totaled 702 runs so far this season.
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends
The Chicago Cubs are 72-79-8 against the over/under so far this season
The Chicago Cubs are 85-74-0 against the run line so far this season
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds are 84-65-10 against the over/under so far this season
The Cincinnati Reds are 84-75-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
09/29/16 P Jason Hammel Elbow scratched from start Friday vs Cincinnati Reds
09/29/16 2B Chris Coghlan Ankle "?" Friday vs. Cincinnati Reds
09/28/16 LF Jorge Soler Side out indefinitely
04/08/16 C Kyle Schwarber Knee 60-day DL (4/8); out for season
04/04/16 P Aaron Brooks Hip 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 3B Christian Villanueva Fibula 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Dallas Beeler Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Zac Rosscup Shoulder 60-day DL (2/25)
09/30/16 RF Scott Schebler Hamstring doubtful Friday vs. Chicago Cubs
09/29/16 2B Brandon Phillips Hand "?" Friday vs. Chicago Cubs
09/29/16 1B Joey Votto Chin injured last game, "?" Friday vs. Chicago Cubs
09/29/16 SS Zack Cozart Knee 60-day DL (9/16), out for season
09/16/16 CF Billy Hamilton Oblique 15-day DL (9/5)
09/16/16 P Cody Reed Back 15-day DL (9/5)
09/14/16 P Alfredo Simon Shoulder 60-day DL (9/12)
09/09/16 P Homer Bailey Bicep out indefinitely
06/01/16 P Caleb Cotham Shoulder 15-day DL (5/29)
05/02/16 C Devin Mesoraco Shoulder 60-day DL (5/1); out for season
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 60-day DL (3/27)
Josh's Pick: Take the Cubs
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