Thursday, April 21, 2016
Great American Ball Park
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Probable Pitchers: Jake Arrieta vs. Brandon Finnegan
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The Chicago Cubs visit Great American Ball Park on Thursday to play the Cincinnati Reds. The probable starters are Jake Arrieta for the Cubs and Brandon Finnegan for the Reds. The opening line for this matchup has Chicago at -219 and Cincinnati at +202. The over/under was set at 7. The Cubs have a 7-7-0 over/under record and a 11-3-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 79% of the time. The Reds are 7-7-0 against the run line and have a 8-6-0 over/under record. They cover the spread 50% of the time.
The Cubs head into this matchup with a 11-3 record, including 7-1 on the road. Starting pitcher Jake Arrieta has a 3-0 record with an earned run average of 1.23 and a WHIP of 0.77. He has 20 strikeouts over his 22 innings pitched and he has given up 15 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.69. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 2.18 and they have given up 19 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .162 against the bullpen while being struck out 39 times and walking 9 times this season. As a team, Chicago has allowed 6.37 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.95 batters per nine. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 2.15. The Cubs pitchers have collectively given up 89 base hits and 30 earned runs. They have allowed 8 home runs this season and they allow 0.6 homers per nine innings as a staff. Chicago as a pitching staff has walked 28 batters and struck out 125. They walk 2 men per 9 innings while striking out 9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 0.93 and their FIP as a unit is 2.59.
As a team, Chicago is batting .242, good for 17th in the league while putting together a .266 average away from home. The Cubs hold a .391 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .347 which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 19th in baseball with 8 hits per game. Anthony Rizzo comes into this game hitting .163 and his on-base percentage is at .339. He has 8 hits this season along with 8 runs scored and 11 runs batted in. He's struck out 10 times and has walked 10 times. Kris Bryant is hitting .250 and he has an on-base percentage of .323. He has totaled 14 hits so far while scoring 9 runs and he's driven in 6. He has walked 6 times and has struck out 13 times. The Cubs have 112 hits, including 23 doubles and 14 home runs. They've stolen 6 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 2 times. Chicago has walked 70 times this season and they've struck out 116 times as a unit. They've left 104 men on base and have a team OPS of .738. They score 5.57 runs per contest and have scored a total of 78 runs so far this year.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup with a 6-2 home record and a 7-7 overall mark. With an earned run average of 2.04, Brandon Finnegan has a 1-0 record and a 1.02 WHIP. He has 16 strikeouts over the 17.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 8 hits. He has allowed 4.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.41. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 5.79 and they have given up 46 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .235 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 44 times and walking 29 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 8.26 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.36 batters per nine. They are 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.76. The Reds pitchers as a team have surrendered 111 base knocks and 64 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 23 home runs this year and they give up 1.7 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff has walked 62 hitters and struck out 99. They give up a walk 4.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.43 while their FIP as a staff is 5.68.
As a team, they are batting .252, good for 12th in the league while putting together a .255 average at home. The Reds hold a .400 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .310 which is good for 19th in baseball. They rank 16th in baseball with 8.07 hits per contest. Joey Votto comes into this matchup batting .196 and he has an OBP of .288. He has 10 hits this year along with 5 runs scored and 7 RBI. He's struck out 11 times and has walked on 7 occasions. Jay Bruce is hitting .278 and he has an OBP of .298. He has collected 15 hits so far while he's scored 7 runs and drove in 13. He has earned a walk 1 times and has punched out 13 times. The Reds as a unit have 113 base hits, including 30 doubles and 10 homers. They have 11 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 4 times. Cincinnati as a team has walked 37 times this year and they have struck out 93 times. They've had 77 men left on base and have an OPS of .710. They score 4.07 runs per game and have totaled 57 runs so far this season.
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends
The Chicago Cubs are 7-7-0 against the over/under so far this season
The Chicago Cubs are 11-3-0 against the run line so far this season
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds are 8-6-0 against the over/under so far this season
The Cincinnati Reds are 7-7-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
04/08/16 C Kyle Schwarber Knee 60-day DL (4/8); out for season
04/04/16 P Aaron Brooks Hip 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 3B Christian Villanueva Fibula 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Dallas Beeler Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Zac Rosscup Shoulder 60-day DL (2/25)
04/19/16 P Alfredo Simon Bicep "?" for next scheduled start
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 15-day DL (3/27)
04/04/16 P Anthony DeSclafa Oblique 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Homer Bailey Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 C Kyle Skipworth Ankle 15-day DL (3/31)
04/03/16 P John Lamb Back 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Michael Lorenzen Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Reds
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