Sunday, July 24, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Junior Guerra
The Chicago Cubs visit Miller Park on Sunday to play the Milwaukee Brewers. The probable starters are Jon Lester for the Cubs and Junior Guerra for the Brewers. The opening line for this matchup has Chicago at -159 and Milwaukee at +149. The over/under was set at 8. The Cubs have a 46-45-4 over/under record and a 50-45-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 53% of the time. The Brewers are 48-46-0 against the run line and have a 44-44-6 over/under record. They cover the spread 51% of the time.
The Cubs head into this matchup with a 58-37 record, including 28-21 on the road. Starting pitcher Jon Lester has a 10-4 record with an earned run average of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.07. He has 111 strikeouts over his 118.1 innings pitched and he has given up 96 hits so far this season. He has allowed 7.3 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.02. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.70 and they have given up 211 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .208 against the bullpen while being struck out 279 times and walking 115 times this season. As a team, Chicago has allowed 7 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.81 batters per nine. They are 1st in the league in team earned run average at 3.20. The Cubs pitchers have collectively given up 668 base hits and 308 earned runs. They have allowed 96 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Chicago as a pitching staff has walked 290 batters and struck out 838. They walk 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.8 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.12 and their FIP as a unit is 3.79.
As a team, Chicago is batting .254, good for 15th in the league while putting together a .265 average away from home. The Cubs hold a .432 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .346 which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 15th in baseball with 8.65 hits per game. Kris Bryant comes into this game hitting .284 and his on-base percentage is at .377. He has 102 hits this season along with 77 runs scored and 65 runs batted in. He's struck out 96 times and has walked 44 times. Anthony Rizzo is hitting .289 and he has an on-base percentage of .398. He has totaled 97 hits so far while scoring 58 runs and he's driven in 72. He has walked 50 times and has struck out 65 times. The Cubs have 822 hits, including 175 doubles and 124 home runs. They've stolen 40 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 20 times. Chicago has walked 397 times this season and they've struck out 817 times as a unit. They've left 715 men on base and have a team OPS of .778. They score 5.13 runs per contest and have scored a total of 487 runs so far this year.
Milwaukee comes into this matchup with a 23-23 home record and a 40-54 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.06, Junior Guerra has a 6-2 record and a 1.06 WHIP. He has 78 strikeouts over the 88.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 65 hits. He has allowed 6.6 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.75. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.94 and they have given up 316 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .259 against the Brewers bullpen while being struck out 294 times and walking 133 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 9.27 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.42 batters per nine. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.38. The Brewers pitchers as a team have surrendered 856 base knocks and 404 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 112 home runs this year and they give up 1.2 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a staff has walked 329 hitters and struck out 684. They give up a walk 3.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.43 while their FIP as a staff is 4.58.
As a team, they are batting .244, good for 23rd in the league while putting together a .246 average at home. The Brewers hold a .388 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .321 which is good for 18th in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 8.01 hits per contest. Jonathan Lucroy comes into this matchup batting .301 and he has an OBP of .357. He has 95 hits this year along with 44 runs scored and 48 RBI. He's struck out 66 times and has walked on 29 occasions. Ryan Braun is hitting .315 and he has an OBP of .373. He has collected 97 hits so far while he's scored 43 runs and drove in 45. He has earned a walk 26 times and has punched out 54 times. The Brewers as a unit have 753 base hits, including 143 doubles and 94 homers. They have 86 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 30 times. Milwaukee as a team has walked 344 times this year and they have struck out 903 times. They've had 640 men left on base and have an OPS of .709. They score 3.95 runs per game and have totaled 371 runs so far this season.
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends
The Chicago Cubs are 46-45-4 against the over/under so far this season
The Chicago Cubs are 50-45-0 against the run line so far this season
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 44-44-6 against the over/under so far this season
The Milwaukee Brewers are 48-46-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
07/16/16 P Trevor Cahill Knee 15-day DL (7/9)
07/03/16 2B Chris Coghlan Ribs 15-day DL (7/3)
06/07/16 LF Jorge Soler Hamstring 15-day DL (6/6)
05/18/16 P Joe Nathan Elbow 60-day DL (5/17)
04/08/16 C Kyle Schwarber Knee 60-day DL (4/8); out for season
04/04/16 P Aaron Brooks Hip 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 3B Christian Villanueva Fibula 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Dallas Beeler Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Zac Rosscup Shoulder 60-day DL (2/25)
06/10/16 RF Domingo Santana Elbow 15-day DL (6/8)
05/27/16 P Chris Capuano Elbow 60-day DL (4/2)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Cubs
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