Tuesday, July 5, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Brandon Finnegan vs. John Lackey
The Cincinnati Reds visit Wrigley Field on Tuesday to play the Chicago Cubs. The probable starters are Brandon Finnegan for the Reds and John Lackey for the Cubs. The opening line for this matchup has Cincinnati at +229 and Chicago at -250. The over/under was set at 8. The Reds have a 47-29-7 over/under record and a 41-42-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 49% of the time. The Cubs are 44-37-0 against the run line and have a 41-36-4 over/under record. They cover the spread 54% of the time.
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The Reds head into this matchup with a 30-53 record, including 12-28 on the road. Starting pitcher Brandon Finnegan has a 3-7 record with an earned run average of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.39. He has 69 strikeouts over his 96.1 innings pitched and he has given up 85 hits so far this season. He has allowed 7.9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.28. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 5.95 and they have given up 323 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .266 against the bullpen while being struck out 264 times and walking 167 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 9.47 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.21 batters per nine. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.51. The Reds pitchers have collectively given up 785 base hits and 457 earned runs. They have allowed 144 home runs this season and they allow 1.7 homers per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a pitching staff has walked 364 batters and struck out 598. They walk 4.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.54 and their FIP as a unit is 5.71.
As a team, Cincinnati is batting .237, good for 30th in the league while putting together a .240 average away from home. The Reds hold a .397 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .298 which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 7.96 hits per game. Jay Bruce comes into this game hitting .268 and his on-base percentage is at .315. He has 80 hits this season along with 45 runs scored and 60 runs batted in. He's struck out 68 times and has walked 19 times. Brandon Phillips is hitting .252 and he has an on-base percentage of .292. He has totaled 75 hits so far while scoring 38 runs and he's driven in 30. He has walked 13 times and has struck out 41 times. The Reds have 660 hits, including 141 doubles and 91 home runs. They've stolen 58 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 29 times. Cincinnati has walked 221 times this season and they've struck out 701 times as a unit. They've left 468 men on base and have a team OPS of .694. They score 4.24 runs per contest and have scored a total of 352 runs so far this year.
Chicago comes into this matchup with a 25-11 home record and a 51-30 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.27, John Lackey has a 7-4 record and a 1.04 WHIP. He has 107 strikeouts over the 104.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 80 hits. He has allowed 6.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.5. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.49 and they have given up 179 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .210 against the Cubs bullpen while being struck out 233 times and walking 96 times this season. As a team, Chicago has allowed 6.98 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.83 batters per nine. They are 1st in the league in team earned run average at 3.06. The Cubs pitchers as a team have surrendered 568 base knocks and 252 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 76 home runs this year and they give up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Chicago as a staff has walked 246 hitters and struck out 716. They give up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.12 while their FIP as a staff is 3.71.
As a team, they are batting .254, good for 15th in the league while putting together a .242 average at home. The Cubs hold a .432 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .346 which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 16th in baseball with 8.63 hits per contest. Anthony Rizzo comes into this matchup batting .282 and he has an OBP of .401. He has 79 hits this year along with 47 runs scored and 61 RBI. He's struck out 48 times and has walked on 46 occasions. Kris Bryant is hitting .277 and he has an OBP of .367. He has collected 85 hits so far while he's scored 64 runs and drove in 61. He has earned a walk 37 times and has punched out 82 times. The Cubs as a unit have 699 base hits, including 147 doubles and 108 homers. They have 31 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 18 times. Chicago as a team has walked 347 times this year and they have struck out 707 times. They've had 604 men left on base and have an OPS of .778. They score 5.22 runs per game and have totaled 423 runs so far this season.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds are 47-29-7 against the over/under so far this season
The Cincinnati Reds are 41-42-0 against the run line so far this season
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends
The Chicago Cubs are 41-36-4 against the over/under so far this season
The Chicago Cubs are 44-37-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
06/23/16 P Alfredo Simon Trapezius 15-day DL (6/16)
06/01/16 P Caleb Cotham Shoulder 15-day DL (5/29)
05/20/16 P Tim Adleman Oblique 15-day DL (5/20)
05/02/16 C Devin Mesoraco Shoulder 60-day DL (5/1); out for season
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 60-day DL (3/27)
04/04/16 P Homer Bailey Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
07/04/16 2B Ben Zobrist Rest is not expected to be in the starting lineup Monday vs. Cincinnati Reds
07/03/16 2B Chris Coghlan Ribs 15-day DL (7/3)
06/21/16 P Clayton Richard Finger 15-day DL (6/21)
06/20/16 CF Dexter Fowler Hamstring 15-day DL (6/19)
06/09/16 2B Tommy La Stella Hamstring 15-day DL (6/8)
06/07/16 LF Jorge Soler Hamstring 15-day DL (6/6)
05/18/16 P Joe Nathan Elbow 60-day DL (5/17)
04/08/16 C Kyle Schwarber Knee 60-day DL (4/8); out for season
04/04/16 P Aaron Brooks Hip 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 3B Christian Villanueva Fibula 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Dallas Beeler Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Zac Rosscup Shoulder 60-day DL (2/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Reds
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