Friday, August 12, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Homer Bailey vs. Jimmy Nelson
The Cincinnati Reds visit Miller Park on Friday to play the Milwaukee Brewers. The probable starters are Homer Bailey for the Reds and Jimmy Nelson for the Brewers. The opening line for this matchup has Cincinnati at +113 and Milwaukee at -123. The over/under was set at 8.5. The Reds have a 59-44-10 over/under record and a 60-53-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 53% of the time. The Brewers are 58-54-0 against the run line and have a 51-54-7 over/under record. They cover the spread 52% of the time.
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The Reds head into this matchup with a 46-67 record, including 20-38 on the road. Starting pitcher Homer Bailey has a 1-1 record with an earned run average of 7.27 and a WHIP of 1.85. He has 10 strikeouts over his 8.2 innings pitched and he has given up 12 hits so far this season. He has allowed 12.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.89. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 5.11 and they have given up 398 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .252 against the bullpen while being struck out 372 times and walking 212 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 9.14 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.57 batters per nine. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.05. The Reds pitchers have collectively given up 1,025 base hits and 567 earned runs. They have allowed 183 home runs this season and they allow 1.6 homers per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a pitching staff has walked 461 batters and struck out 849. They walk 4.1 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.47 and their FIP as a unit is 5.33.
As a team, Cincinnati is batting .244, good for 25th in the league while putting together a .241 average away from home. The Reds hold a .401 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .305 which is good for 27th in baseball. They rank 25th in baseball with 8.21 hits per game. Joey Votto comes into this game hitting .293 and his on-base percentage is at .422. He has 110 hits this season along with 68 runs scored and 57 runs batted in. He's struck out 101 times and has walked 83 times. Zack Cozart is hitting .266 and he has an on-base percentage of .314. He has totaled 105 hits so far while scoring 58 runs and he's driven in 45. He has walked 27 times and has struck out 66 times. The Reds have 927 hits, including 188 doubles and 123 home runs. They've stolen 102 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 35 times. Cincinnati has walked 312 times this season and they've struck out 923 times as a unit. They've left 660 men on base and have a team OPS of .706. They score 4.34 runs per contest and have scored a total of 490 runs so far this year.
Milwaukee comes into this matchup with a 31-27 home record and a 50-62 overall mark. With an earned run average of 4.02, Jimmy Nelson has a 6-11 record and a 1.48 WHIP. He has 101 strikeouts over the 132 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 133 hits. He has allowed 9.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.88. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.82 and they have given up 372 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .256 against the Brewers bullpen while being struck out 353 times and walking 153 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 9.14 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.45 batters per nine. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.23. The Brewers pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,009 base knocks and 467 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 128 home runs this year and they give up 1.2 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a staff has walked 386 hitters and struck out 822. They give up a walk 3.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.40 while their FIP as a staff is 4.45.
As a team, they are batting .247, good for 22nd in the league while putting together a .249 average at home. The Brewers hold a .397 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .326 which is good for 12th in baseball. They rank 27th in baseball with 8.12 hits per contest. Jonathan Villar comes into this matchup batting .302 and he has an OBP of .387. He has 124 hits this year along with 62 runs scored and 41 RBI. He's struck out 121 times and has walked on 58 occasions. Ryan Braun is hitting .325 and he has an OBP of .390. He has collected 115 hits so far while he's scored 56 runs and drove in 58. He has earned a walk 36 times and has punched out 63 times. The Brewers as a unit have 910 base hits, including 168 doubles and 120 homers. They have 121 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 36 times. Milwaukee as a team has walked 426 times this year and they have struck out 1,068 times. They've had 772 men left on base and have an OPS of .724. They score 4.05 runs per game and have totaled 454 runs so far this season.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds are 59-44-10 against the over/under so far this season
The Cincinnati Reds are 60-53-0 against the run line so far this season
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 51-54-7 against the over/under so far this season
The Milwaukee Brewers are 58-54-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
08/11/16 2B Brandon Phillips Quad "?" Friday vs. Milwaukee Brewers
08/11/16 RF Scott Schebler Calf "?" Friday vs. Milwaukee Brewers
08/04/16 P A.J. Morris Shoulder 15-day DL (6/16)
06/23/16 P Alfredo Simon Trapezius 15-day DL (6/22)
06/01/16 P Caleb Cotham Shoulder 15-day DL (5/29)
05/02/16 C Devin Mesoraco Shoulder 60-day DL (5/1); out for season
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 60-day DL (3/27)
08/09/16 P Junior Guerra Elbow 15-day DL (8/4)
07/25/16 3B Will Middlebrooks Leg 15-day DL (7/25)
06/10/16 RF Domingo Santana Elbow 15-day DL (6/8)
05/27/16 P Chris Capuano Elbow 60-day DL (4/2)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Reds
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