Sunday, October 9, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Josh Tomlin vs. Clay Buchholz
The Cleveland Indians visit Fenway Park on Sunday to play the Boston Red Sox. The probable starters are Josh Tomlin for the Indians and Clay Buchholz for the Red Sox. The opening line for this matchup has Cleveland at +128 and Boston at -138. The over/under was set at 9.5. The Indians have a 80-70-11 over/under record and a 75-86-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 47% of the time. The Red Sox are 83-79-0 against the run line and have a 77-78-7 over/under record. They cover the spread 51% of the time.
The Indians head into this matchup with a 94-67 record, including 41-39 on the road. Starting pitcher Josh Tomlin has a 13-9 record with an earned run average of 4.40 and a WHIP of 1.19. He has 118 strikeouts over his 174 innings pitched and he has given up 187 hits so far this season. He has allowed 9.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.88. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.45 and they have given up 443 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .231 against the bullpen while being struck out 514 times and walking 190 times this season. As a team, Cleveland has allowed 8.28 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.71 batters per nine. They are 7th in the league in team earned run average at 3.84. The Indians pitchers have collectively given up 1,330 base hits and 617 earned runs. They have allowed 186 home runs this season and they allow 1.2 homers per nine innings as a staff. Cleveland as a pitching staff has walked 461 batters and struck out 1,398. They walk 2.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.24 and their FIP as a unit is 3.91.
As a team, Cleveland is batting .262, good for 6th in the league while putting together a .236 average away from home. The Indians hold a .430 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .329 which is good for 8th in baseball. They rank 9th in baseball with 8.91 hits per game. Rajai Davis comes into this game hitting .249 and his on-base percentage is at .306. He has 113 hits this season along with 74 runs scored and 48 runs batted in. He's struck out 106 times and has walked 33 times. Mike Napoli is hitting .239 and he has an on-base percentage of .335. He has totaled 133 hits so far while scoring 92 runs and he's driven in 101. He has walked 78 times and has struck out 194 times. The Indians have 1,435 hits, including 308 doubles and 185 home runs. They've stolen 134 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 31 times. Cleveland has walked 531 times this season and they've struck out 1,246 times as a unit. They've left 1,084 men on base and have a team OPS of .759. They score 4.83 runs per contest and have scored a total of 777 runs so far this year.
Boston comes into this matchup with a 47-34 home record and a 93-69 overall mark. With an earned run average of 4.78, Clay Buchholz has a 8-10 record and a 1.33 WHIP. He has 93 strikeouts over the 139.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 130 hits. He has allowed 8.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.06. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.56 and they have given up 411 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .231 against the Red Sox bullpen while being struck out 507 times and walking 193 times this season. As a team, Boston has allowed 8.38 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.51 batters per nine. They are 9th in the league in team earned run average at 4.00. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,341 base knocks and 640 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 176 home runs this year and they give up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Boston as a staff has walked 490 hitters and struck out 1,362. They give up a walk 3.1 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.5 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.27 while their FIP as a staff is 4.00.
As a team, they are batting .282, good for 1st in the league while putting together a .300 average at home. The Red Sox hold a .461 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .348 which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in baseball with 9.86 hits per contest. Dustin Pedroia comes into this matchup batting .318 and he has an OBP of .376. He has 201 hits this year along with 105 runs scored and 74 RBI. He's struck out 73 times and has walked on 61 occasions. David Ortiz is hitting .315 and he has an OBP of .401. He has collected 169 hits so far while he's scored 79 runs and drove in 127. He has earned a walk 80 times and has punched out 86 times. The Red Sox as a unit have 1,598 base hits, including 343 doubles and 208 homers. They have 83 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 24 times. Boston as a team has walked 558 times this year and they have struck out 1,160 times. They've had 1,162 men left on base and have an OPS of .810. They score 5.42 runs per game and have totaled 878 runs so far this season.
Cleveland Indians Betting Trends
The Cleveland Indians are 80-70-11 against the over/under so far this season
The Cleveland Indians are 75-86-0 against the run line so far this season
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
The Boston Red Sox are 77-78-7 against the over/under so far this season
The Boston Red Sox are 83-79-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
10/01/16 P Carlos Carrasco Hand 60-day DL (9/17), out for season
09/13/16 P Danny Salazar Forearm out indefinitely
07/18/16 P Tommy Hunter Back 15-day DL (7/10)
07/07/16 P Zach McAllister Hip 15-day DL (7/6)
06/01/16 LF Marlon Byrd Suspension out for season
05/14/16 LF Michael Brantley Shoulder 60-day DL (5/10); out for season
Boston Red Sox
09/07/16 P Steven Wright Shoulder out indefinitely
06/17/16 2B Josh Rutledge Knee 60-day DL (6/15)
06/07/16 P Carson Smith Elbow 60-day DL (5/15)
06/06/16 C Blake Swihart Ankle 60-day DL (6/5)
05/03/16 3B Pablo Sandoval Shoulder 60-day DL (4/11); out for season
04/04/16 P Brandon Workman Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Indians
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