Sunday, July 3, 2016
For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here
Probable Pitchers: Mike Pelfrey vs. Chris Archer
The Detroit Tigers visit Tropicana Field on Sunday to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The probable starters are Mike Pelfrey for the Tigers and Chris Archer for the Rays. The opening line for this matchup has Detroit at +142 and Tampa Bay at -152. The over/under was set at 8.5. The Tigers have a 47-29-4 over/under record and a 46-34-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 58% of the time. The Rays are 32-47-0 against the run line and have a 37-37-5 over/under record. They cover the spread 41% of the time.
The Tigers head into this matchup with a 42-38 record, including 19-22 on the road. Starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey has a 2-7 record with an earned run average of 5.02 and a WHIP of 1.74. He has 41 strikeouts over his 86 innings pitched and he has given up 118 hits so far this season. He has allowed 12.3 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.39. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.42 and they have given up 262 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .268 against the bullpen while being struck out 210 times and walking 81 times this season. As a team, Detroit has allowed 9.42 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.32 batters per nine. They are 23rd in the league in team earned run average at 4.57. The Tigers pitchers have collectively given up 746 base hits and 362 earned runs. They have allowed 89 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Detroit as a pitching staff has walked 233 batters and struck out 580. They walk 2.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.37 and their FIP as a unit is 4.22.
As a team, Detroit is batting .272, good for 4th in the league while putting together a .264 average away from home. The Tigers hold a .445 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .332 which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 4th in baseball with 9.49 hits per game. Nick Castellanos comes into this game hitting .304 and his on-base percentage is at .344. He has 90 hits this season along with 39 runs scored and 43 runs batted in. He's struck out 76 times and has walked 19 times. Ian Kinsler is hitting .290 and he has an on-base percentage of .346. He has totaled 94 hits so far while scoring 64 runs and he's driven in 49. He has walked 23 times and has struck out 62 times. The Tigers have 759 hits, including 130 doubles and 106 home runs. They've stolen 34 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 12 times. Detroit has walked 240 times this season and they've struck out 676 times as a unit. They've left 550 men on base and have a team OPS of .777. They score 4.92 runs per contest and have scored a total of 394 runs so far this year.
Tampa Bay comes into this matchup with a 17-23 home record and a 33-46 overall mark. With an earned run average of 4.76, Chris Archer has a 4-11 record and a 1.45 WHIP. He has 117 strikeouts over the 98.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 100 hits. He has allowed 9.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.34. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 4.79 and they have given up 249 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .270 against the Rays bullpen while being struck out 208 times and walking 87 times this season. As a team, Tampa Bay has allowed 9.08 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.64 batters per nine. They are 22nd in the league in team earned run average at 4.52. The Rays pitchers as a team have surrendered 702 base knocks and 349 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 107 home runs this year and they give up 1.4 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Tampa Bay as a staff has walked 238 hitters and struck out 668. They give up a walk 3.1 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.6 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.35 while their FIP as a staff is 4.33.
As a team, they are batting .241, good for 25th in the league while putting together a .230 average at home. The Rays hold a .427 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .309 which is good for 24th in baseball. They rank 24th in baseball with 8.15 hits per contest. Evan Longoria comes into this matchup batting .281 and he has an OBP of .335. He has 86 hits this year along with 45 runs scored and 44 RBI. He's struck out 76 times and has walked on 25 occasions. Logan Forsythe is hitting .307 and he has an OBP of .370. He has collected 61 hits so far while he's scored 29 runs and drove in 19. He has earned a walk 17 times and has punched out 48 times. The Rays as a unit have 644 base hits, including 141 doubles and 110 homers. They have 27 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 18 times. Tampa Bay as a team has walked 236 times this year and they have struck out 731 times. They've had 534 men left on base and have an OPS of .736. They score 4.09 runs per game and have totaled 323 runs so far this season.
Detroit Tigers Betting Trends
The Detroit Tigers are 47-29-4 against the over/under so far this season
The Detroit Tigers are 46-34-0 against the run line so far this season
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends
The Tampa Bay Rays are 37-37-5 against the over/under so far this season
The Tampa Bay Rays are 32-47-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
06/21/16 P Drew VerHagen Shoulder 60-day DL (5/23)
06/17/16 RF J.D. Martinez Elbow 15-day DL (6/17)
04/04/16 P Jeff Ferrell Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Angel Nesbitt Ankle 15-day DL (3/25)
Tampa Bay Rays
07/01/16 LF Desmond Jennings Hamstring "?" Saturday vs. Detroit Tigers
06/28/16 P Alex Colome Bicep 15-day DL (6/19)
06/21/16 CF Mike Mahtook Hand 15-day DL (6/21)
06/21/16 2B Steve Pearce Hamstring 15-day DL (6/21)
06/02/16 P Brad Boxberger Oblique 15-day DL (6/1)
05/23/16 CF Kevin Kiermaier Hand 15-day DL (5/22)
04/10/16 P Chase Whitley Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Alex Cobb Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Tigers
Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here
Read more articles by Guy Bruhn
Get all of Today's MLB Picks
Get all of Today's Guaranteed Expert MLB Picks