Sunday, April 10, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel vs. Jimmy Nelson
The Houston Astros visit Miller Park on Sunday to play the Milwaukee Brewers. The probable starters are Dallas Keuchel for the Astros and Jimmy Nelson for the Brewers. The opening line for this matchup has Houston at -148 and Milwaukee at +138. The over/under was set at 8. The Astros had a 76-83-9 over/under record last season and a 88-80-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 52% of the time. The Brewers were 75-87-0 against the run line and had a 81-69-12 over/under record. They covered the spread 46% of the time.
The Astros head into this matchup coming off a 86 - 76 season, including 33-48 on the road. Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel had a 20 - 8 record with an earned run average of 2.48 and a WHIP of 1.02. He had 216 strikeouts over his 232 innings pitched and he also gave up 185 hits over that time period. He allowed 7.2 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 2.91. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.27 and they gave up 371 base hits on the year. Teams hit .216 against the bullpen while being struck out 463 times and walking 135 times last season. As a team, Houston allowed 8.14 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.99 batters per nine. They were 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.59. The Astros pitchers collectively gave up 1,308 base hits and 572 earned runs last year. They allowed 148 home runs last season and they allowed 0.9 homers per nine innings as a staff. Houston as a pitching staff walked 423 batters and struck out 1,280. They walked 2.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 8 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.20 and their FIP as a unit was 3.66.
As a team, Houston batted .249, good for 23rd in the league while putting together a .245 average away from home. The Astros held a .436 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .315 which was good for 16th in baseball. They ranked 24th in baseball with 8.37 hits per game. Jose Altuve hit .313 last season and his on-base percentage was at .353. He had 200 hits last season along with 86 runs scored and 66 runs batted in. He struck out 67 times and walked 33 times. Carlos Correa hit .279 and he had an on-base percentage of .345 last year. He totaled 108 hits while scoring 52 runs and he drove in 68. He walked 40 times and struck out 78 times. The Astros had 1,363 hits, including 278 doubles, 26 triples, and 230 home runs. They stole 121 bases while they were thrown out stealing 48 times. Houston walked 486 times last season and they struck out 1,392 times as a unit. They left 1,036 men on base and had a team OPS of .752. They scored 4.5 runs per contest and scored a total of 729 runs last season.
Milwaukee comes into this matchup after having a 34-47 home record and a 68 - 94 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 4.11, Jimmy Nelson will come into this game after holding a 11 - 13 record and a 1.29 WHIP. He had 148 strikeouts over the 177.1 innings he pitched during which he gave up 163 hits. He allowed 8.3 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 4.1. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.41 and they gave up 472 base hits last year. Teams hit .234 against the Brewers bullpen while being struck out 548 times and walking 183 times last season. As a team, Milwaukee allowed 8.98 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.9 batters per nine. They were 24th in the league in team earned run average at 4.28. The Brewers pitchers as a team surrendered 1,432 base knocks and 682 earned runs last season. They gave up 176 home runs last year and they gave up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a staff walked 517 hitters and struck out 1,260. They gave up a walk 3.2 times per 9 innings while they struck out 7.9 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.36 while their FIP as a staff was 4.17.
As a team, they hit .251, good for 14th in the league while putting together a .249 average at home. The Brewers held a .393 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .307 which was good for 25th in baseball. They ranked 19th in baseball with 8.51 hits per contest. Adam Lind batted .277 last season and he had an OBP of .360. He had 139 hits last year along with 72 runs scored and 87 RBI. He struck out 100 times and walked on 66 occasions. Ryan Braun hit .285 and he had an OBP of .356. He collected 144 hits last year while he scored 87 runs and drove in 84. He earned a walk 54 times and punched out 115 times. The Brewers as a unit had 1,378 base hits last year, including 274 doubles, 34 triples, and 145 homers. They had 84 stolen bases while they were thrown out 29 times. Milwaukee as a team walked 412 times last year and they struck out 1,299 times. They had 1,026 men left on base and had an OPS of .700. They scored 4.04 runs per game and totaled 655 runs last season.
Houston Astros Betting Trends
The Houston Astros were 76-83-9 against the over/under last season
The Houston Astros were 88-80-0 against the run line last season
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers were 81-69-12 against the over/under last season
The Milwaukee Brewers were 75-87-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
04/04/16 P Lance McCuller Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/02/16 DH Evan Gattis Abdominal Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/02/16 C Max Stassi Wrist Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/29)
04/04/16 P Corey Knebel Oblique Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (4/1)
04/04/16 P Matt Garza Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (4/2)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder Injury is on the 60 day disabled list
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (3/25)
03/30/16 P Will Smith Knee Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Brewers
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