Monday, April 4, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel vs. Masahiro Tanaka
The Houston Astros visit Yankee Stadium on Monday to play the New York Yankees. The probable starters are Dallas Keuchel for the Astros and Masahiro Tanaka for the Yankees. The opening line for this matchup has Houston at -125 and New York at +115. The over/under was set at 7. The Astros had a 76-83-9 over/under record last season and a 88-80-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 52% of the time. The Yankees were 80-83-0 against the run line and had a 77-82-4 over/under record. They covered the spread 49% of the time.
The Astros head into this matchup coming off a 86 - 76 season, including 33-48 on the road. Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel had a 20 - 8 record with an earned run average of 2.48 and a WHIP of 1.02. He had 216 strikeouts over his 232 innings pitched and he also gave up 185 hits over that time period. He allowed 7.2 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 2.91. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.27 and they gave up 371 base hits on the year. Teams hit .216 against the bullpen while being struck out 463 times and walking 135 times last season. As a team, Houston allowed 8.14 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.99 batters per nine. They were 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.59. The Astros pitchers collectively gave up 1,308 base hits and 572 earned runs last year. They allowed 148 home runs last season and they allowed 0.9 homers per nine innings as a staff. Houston as a pitching staff walked 423 batters and struck out 1,280. They walked 2.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 8 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.20 and their FIP as a unit was 3.66.
As a team, Houston batted .249, good for 23rd in the league while putting together a .245 average away from home. The Astros held a .436 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .315 which was good for 16th in baseball. They ranked 24th in baseball with 8.37 hits per game. Jose Altuve hit .313 last season and his on-base percentage was at .353. He had 200 hits last season along with 86 runs scored and 66 runs batted in. He struck out 67 times and walked 33 times. Carlos Correa hit .279 and he had an on-base percentage of .345 last year. He totaled 108 hits while scoring 52 runs and he drove in 68. He walked 40 times and struck out 78 times. The Astros had 1,363 hits, including 278 doubles, 26 triples, and 230 home runs. They stole 121 bases while they were thrown out stealing 48 times. Houston walked 486 times last season and they struck out 1,392 times as a unit. They left 1,036 men on base and had a team OPS of .752. They scored 4.5 runs per contest and scored a total of 729 runs last season.
New York comes into this matchup after having a 45-36 home record and a 87 - 75 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 3.51, Masahiro Tanaka will come into this game after holding a 12 - 7 record and a 0.99 WHIP. He had 139 strikeouts over the 154 innings he pitched during which he gave up 126 hits. He allowed 7.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 3.98. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.70 and they gave up 461 base hits last year. Teams hit .229 against the Yankees bullpen while being struck out 596 times and walking 226 times last season. As a team, New York allowed 8.73 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.46 batters per nine. They were 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.04. The Yankees pitchers as a team surrendered 1,416 base knocks and 652 earned runs last season. They gave up 182 home runs last year and they gave up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. New York as a staff walked 474 hitters and struck out 1,370. They gave up a walk 2.9 times per 9 innings while they struck out 8.5 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.30 while their FIP as a staff was 3.97.
As a team, they hit .250, good for 18th in the league while putting together a .253 average at home. The Yankees held a .419 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .322 which was good for 10th in baseball. They ranked 13th in baseball with 8.59 hits per contest. Alex Rodriguez batted .250 last season and he had an OBP of .356. He had 131 hits last year along with 83 runs scored and 86 RBI. He struck out 145 times and walked on 84 occasions. Mark Teixeira hit .255 and he had an OBP of .357. He collected 100 hits last year while he scored 57 runs and drove in 79. He earned a walk 59 times and punched out 85 times. The Yankees as a unit had 1,397 base hits last year, including 272 doubles, 19 triples, and 212 homers. They had 63 stolen bases while they were thrown out 25 times. New York as a team walked 554 times last year and they struck out 1,227 times. They had 1,151 men left on base and had an OPS of .744. They scored 4.72 runs per game and totaled 764 runs last season.
Houston Astros Betting Trends
The Houston Astros were 76-83-9 against the over/under last season
The Houston Astros were 88-80-0 against the run line last season
New York Yankees Betting Trends
The New York Yankees were 77-82-4 against the over/under last season
The New York Yankees were 80-83-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
03/31/16 P Lance McCullers Shoulder out indefinitely
03/30/16 C Max Stassi Wrist out indefinitely
New York Yankees
03/31/16 P Andrew Miller Wrist out indefinitely
03/31/16 1B Gregory Bird Shoulder out for season
03/31/16 P Bryan Mitchell Toe out indefinitely
03/19/14 P Aroldis Chapman Suspension 30-game suspension, eligible to return May 9
Tony's Pick: Take the Astros
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