Monday, August 15, 2016
Great American Ball Park
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Probable Pitchers: David Phelps vs. Brandon Finnegan
The Miami Marlins visit Great American Ball Park on Monday to play the Cincinnati Reds. The probable starters are David Phelps for the Marlins and Brandon Finnegan for the Reds. The opening line for this matchup has Miami at -120 and Cincinnati at +110. The over/under was set at 9. The Marlins have a 60-54-2 over/under record and a 58-58-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 50% of the time. The Reds are 62-53-0 against the run line and have a 61-44-10 over/under record. They cover the spread 54% of the time.
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The Marlins head into this matchup with a 60-56 record, including 30-28 on the road. Starting pitcher David Phelps has a 5-6 record with an earned run average of 2.40 and a WHIP of 1.16. He has 78 strikeouts over his 63.2 innings pitched and he has given up 48 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6.8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.98. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.76 and they have given up 340 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .231 against the bullpen while being struck out 408 times and walking 183 times this season. As a team, Miami has allowed 8.43 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.72 batters per nine. They are 10th in the league in team earned run average at 4.00. The Marlins pitchers have collectively given up 972 base hits and 461 earned runs. They have allowed 106 home runs this season and they allow 0.9 homers per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a pitching staff has walked 424 batters and struck out 1,005. They walk 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.35 and their FIP as a unit is 3.90.
As a team, Miami is batting .271, good for 3rd in the league while putting together a .285 average away from home. The Marlins hold a .408 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .330 which is good for 5th in baseball. They rank 2nd in baseball with 9.42 hits per game. Martin Prado comes into this game hitting .322 and his on-base percentage is at .375. He has 140 hits this season along with 56 runs scored and 53 runs batted in. He's struck out 50 times and has walked 37 times. Christian Yelich is hitting .320 and he has an on-base percentage of .390. He has totaled 133 hits so far while scoring 61 runs and he's driven in 67. He has walked 46 times and has struck out 97 times. The Marlins have 1,093 hits, including 203 doubles and 96 home runs. They've stolen 43 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 16 times. Miami has walked 331 times this season and they've struck out 878 times as a unit. They've left 859 men on base and have a team OPS of .738. They score 4.28 runs per contest and have scored a total of 496 runs so far this year.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup with a 26-29 home record and a 48-67 overall mark. With an earned run average of 4.45, Brandon Finnegan has a 7-8 record and a 1.40 WHIP. He has 95 strikeouts over the 129.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 116 hits. He has allowed 8.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.68. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 5.12 and they have given up 405 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .252 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 378 times and walking 215 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 9.15 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.64 batters per nine. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.02. The Reds pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,045 base knocks and 573 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 187 home runs this year and they give up 1.6 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff has walked 465 hitters and struck out 872. They give up a walk 4.1 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.6 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.47 while their FIP as a staff is 5.32.
As a team, they are batting .246, good for 25th in the league while putting together a .248 average at home. The Reds hold a .403 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .307 which is good for 26th in baseball. They rank 25th in baseball with 8.31 hits per contest. Joey Votto comes into this matchup batting .301 and he has an OBP of .428. He has 116 hits this year along with 71 runs scored and 59 RBI. He's struck out 102 times and has walked on 84 occasions. Zack Cozart is hitting .265 and he has an OBP of .311. He has collected 107 hits so far while he's scored 60 runs and drove in 46. He has earned a walk 27 times and has punched out 70 times. The Reds as a unit have 955 base hits, including 192 doubles and 125 homers. They have 106 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 36 times. Cincinnati as a team has walked 317 times this year and they have struck out 942 times. They've had 678 men left on base and have an OPS of .709. They score 4.42 runs per game and have totaled 508 runs so far this season.
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Miami Marlins are 60-54-2 against the over/under so far this season
The Miami Marlins are 58-58-0 against the run line so far this season
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds are 61-44-10 against the over/under so far this season
The Cincinnati Reds are 62-53-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
08/14/16 RF Giancarlo Stanton Groin is downgraded to expected to miss Sunday vs. Chicago White Sox
08/09/16 P A.J. Ramos Finger 15-day DL (8/6)
07/25/16 P Wei-Yin Chen Elbow 15-day DL (7/21)
07/06/16 1B Justin Bour Ankle 15-day DL (7/3)
07/01/16 P Bryan Morris Back 60-day DL (5/25)
05/15/16 P Kendry Flores Shoulder 15-day DL (5/15)
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
08/14/16 CF Billy Hamilton Hand "?" Sunday vs. Milwaukee Brewers
08/04/16 P A.J. Morris Shoulder 15-day DL (6/16)
06/23/16 P Alfredo Simon Trapezius 15-day DL (6/22)
06/01/16 P Caleb Cotham Shoulder 15-day DL (5/29)
05/02/16 C Devin Mesoraco Shoulder 60-day DL (5/1); out for season
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 60-day DL (3/27)
Tony's Pick: Take the Marlins
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