Tuesday, July 5, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Wei-Yin Chen vs. Steven Matz
The Miami Marlins visit Citi Field on Tuesday to play the New York Mets. The probable starters are Wei-Yin Chen for the Marlins and Steven Matz for the Mets. The opening line for this matchup has Miami at +137 and New York at -147. The over/under was set at 8. The Marlins have a 44-37-1 over/under record and a 41-41-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 50% of the time. The Mets are 33-48-0 against the run line and have a 37-42-2 over/under record. They cover the spread 41% of the time.
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The Marlins head into this matchup with a 43-39 record, including 22-20 on the road. Starting pitcher Wei-Yin Chen has a 4-3 record with an earned run average of 5.11 and a WHIP of 1.32. He has 74 strikeouts over his 91.2 innings pitched and he has given up 100 hits so far this season. He has allowed 9.8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.58. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.77 and they have given up 235 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .232 against the bullpen while being struck out 281 times and walking 122 times this season. As a team, Miami has allowed 8.45 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.67 batters per nine. They are 12th in the league in team earned run average at 4.09. The Marlins pitchers have collectively given up 686 base hits and 332 earned runs. They have allowed 77 home runs this season and they allow 0.9 homers per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a pitching staff has walked 301 batters and struck out 704. They walk 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.35 and their FIP as a unit is 4.01.
As a team, Miami is batting .272, good for 3rd in the league while putting together a .288 average away from home. The Marlins hold a .409 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .331 which is good for 9th in baseball. They rank 3rd in baseball with 9.49 hits per game. Marcell Ozuna comes into this game hitting .311 and his on-base percentage is at .362. He has 94 hits this season along with 50 runs scored and 47 runs batted in. He's struck out 67 times and has walked 24 times. Martin Prado is hitting .320 and he has an on-base percentage of .364. He has totaled 99 hits so far while scoring 35 runs and he's driven in 28. He has walked 22 times and has struck out 39 times. The Marlins have 778 hits, including 132 doubles and 71 home runs. They've stolen 24 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 11 times. Miami has walked 237 times this season and they've struck out 624 times as a unit. They've left 632 men on base and have a team OPS of .740. They score 4.2 runs per contest and have scored a total of 344 runs so far this year.
New York comes into this matchup with a 23-16 home record and a 44-37 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.40, Steven Matz has a 7-3 record and a 1.23 WHIP. He has 79 strikeouts over the 82 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 83 hits. He has allowed 9.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.25. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.35 and they have given up 213 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .226 against the Mets bullpen while being struck out 258 times and walking 94 times this season. As a team, New York has allowed 8.53 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.65 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.32. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 682 base knocks and 264 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 69 home runs this year and they give up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. New York as a staff has walked 203 hitters and struck out 692. They give up a walk 2.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.6 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.23 while their FIP as a staff is 3.40.
As a team, they are batting .238, good for 27th in the league while putting together a .233 average at home. The Mets hold a .412 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .310 which is good for 24th in baseball. They rank 29th in baseball with 7.93 hits per contest. Asdrubal Cabrera comes into this matchup batting .262 and he has an OBP of .320. He has 77 hits this year along with 33 runs scored and 27 RBI. He's struck out 63 times and has walked on 19 occasions. Yoenis Cespedes is hitting .294 and he has an OBP of .362. He has collected 80 hits so far while he's scored 44 runs and drove in 48. He has earned a walk 28 times and has punched out 74 times. The Mets as a unit have 642 base hits, including 122 doubles and 109 homers. They have 15 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 9 times. New York as a team has walked 254 times this year and they have struck out 704 times. They've had 554 men left on base and have an OPS of .722. They score 3.8 runs per game and have totaled 308 runs so far this season.
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Miami Marlins are 44-37-1 against the over/under so far this season
The Miami Marlins are 41-41-0 against the run line so far this season
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 37-42-2 against the over/under so far this season
The New York Mets are 33-48-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
07/04/16 1B Justin Bour Ankle is downgraded to not expected to be in the starting lineup Monday vs. New York Mets
07/01/16 P Bryan Morris Back 60-day DL (5/25)
05/15/16 P Kendry Flores Shoulder 15-day DL (5/15)
04/29/16 2B Dee Gordon Suspension expected to miss 80 games
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
04/03/16 P Carter Capps Arm 60-day DL; out for season
New York Mets
07/04/16 SS Asdrubal Cabrera Knee is upgraded to probable Monday vs. Miami Marlins
06/22/16 P Jim Henderson Bicep 15-day DL (6/19)
06/03/16 3B David Wright Neck 15-day DL (5/30), likely out for season
05/24/16 1B Lucas Duda Back 15-day DL (5/21)
04/04/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Marlins
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