Wednesday, July 6, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Justin Nicolino vs. Jacob deGrom
The Miami Marlins visit Citi Field on Wednesday to play the New York Mets. The probable starters are Justin Nicolino for the Marlins and Jacob deGrom for the Mets. The opening line for this matchup has Miami at +175 and New York at -185. The over/under was set at 7.5. The Marlins have a 45-37-1 over/under record and a 41-42-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 49% of the time. The Mets are 34-48-0 against the run line and have a 38-42-2 over/under record. They cover the spread 42% of the time.
The Marlins head into this matchup with a 43-40 record, including 22-21 on the road. Starting pitcher Justin Nicolino has a 2-4 record with an earned run average of 5.34 and a WHIP of 1.55. He has 28 strikeouts over his 60.2 innings pitched and he has given up 79 hits so far this season. He has allowed 11.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.37. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.93 and they have given up 241 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .235 against the bullpen while being struck out 283 times and walking 126 times this season. As a team, Miami has allowed 8.52 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.6 batters per nine. They are 13th in the league in team earned run average at 4.14. The Marlins pitchers have collectively given up 699 base hits and 340 earned runs. They have allowed 79 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a pitching staff has walked 306 batters and struck out 706. They walk 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit is 4.04.
As a team, Miami is batting .274, good for 2nd in the league while putting together a .291 average away from home. The Marlins hold a .410 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .333 which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 2nd in baseball with 9.58 hits per game. Marcell Ozuna comes into this game hitting .310 and his on-base percentage is at .362. He has 95 hits this season along with 50 runs scored and 47 runs batted in. He's struck out 68 times and has walked 25 times. Martin Prado is hitting .315 and he has an on-base percentage of .359. He has totaled 99 hits so far while scoring 35 runs and he's driven in 28. He has walked 22 times and has struck out 39 times. The Marlins have 795 hits, including 134 doubles and 71 home runs. They've stolen 25 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 11 times. Miami has walked 239 times this season and they've struck out 634 times as a unit. They've left 642 men on base and have a team OPS of .742. They score 4.22 runs per contest and have scored a total of 350 runs so far this year.
New York comes into this matchup with a 24-16 home record and a 45-37 overall mark. With an earned run average of 2.62, Jacob deGrom has a 4-4 record and a 1.11 WHIP. He has 84 strikeouts over the 86 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 75 hits. He has allowed 7.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.04. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.28 and they have given up 219 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .228 against the Mets bullpen while being struck out 264 times and walking 96 times this season. As a team, New York has allowed 8.64 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.66 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.34. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 699 base knocks and 269 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 69 home runs this year and they give up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. New York as a staff has walked 205 hitters and struck out 702. They give up a walk 2.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.24 while their FIP as a staff is 3.38.
As a team, they are batting .240, good for 26th in the league while putting together a .237 average at home. The Mets hold a .414 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312 which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 27th in baseball with 7.99 hits per contest. Asdrubal Cabrera comes into this matchup batting .266 and he has an OBP of .325. He has 79 hits this year along with 34 runs scored and 27 RBI. He's struck out 63 times and has walked on 20 occasions. Yoenis Cespedes is hitting .300 and he has an OBP of .366. He has collected 83 hits so far while he's scored 45 runs and drove in 50. He has earned a walk 28 times and has punched out 74 times. The Mets as a unit have 655 base hits, including 124 doubles and 111 homers. They have 16 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 9 times. New York as a team has walked 259 times this year and they have struck out 706 times. They've had 562 men left on base and have an OPS of .726. They score 3.85 runs per game and have totaled 316 runs so far this season.
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Miami Marlins are 45-37-1 against the over/under so far this season
The Miami Marlins are 41-42-0 against the run line so far this season
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 38-42-2 against the over/under so far this season
The New York Mets are 34-48-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
07/04/16 1B Justin Bour Ankle "?" Tuesday vs. New York Mets
07/01/16 P Bryan Morris Back 60-day DL (5/25)
05/15/16 P Kendry Flores Shoulder 15-day DL (5/15)
04/29/16 2B Dee Gordon Suspension expected to miss 80 games
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
04/03/16 P Carter Capps Arm 60-day DL; out for season
New York Mets
06/22/16 P Jim Henderson Bicep 15-day DL (6/19)
06/03/16 3B David Wright Neck 15-day DL (5/30), likely out for season
05/24/16 1B Lucas Duda Back 15-day DL (5/21)
04/04/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Marlins
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