Thursday, April 7, 2016
For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here
Probable Pitchers: Adam Conley vs. Tanner Roark
The Miami Marlins visit Nationals Park on Thursday to play the Washington Nationals. The probable starters are Adam Conley for the Marlins and Tanner Roark for the Nationals. The opening line for this matchup has Miami at +140 and Washington at -150. The over/under was set at 7.5. The Marlins had a 77-77-8 over/under record last season and a 78-84-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 48% of the time. The Nationals were 71-91-0 against the run line and had a 83-71-8 over/under record. They covered the spread 44% of the time.
The Marlins head into this matchup coming off a 71 - 91 season, including 30-51 on the road. Starting pitcher Adam Conley had a 4 - 1 record with an earned run average of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.28. He had 59 strikeouts over his 67 innings pitched and he also gave up 65 hits over that time period. He allowed 8.7 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 3.81. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.66 and they gave up 462 base hits on the year. Teams hit .236 against the bullpen while being struck out 499 times and walking 214 times last season. As a team, Miami allowed 8.67 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.27 batters per nine. They were 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.04. The Marlins pitchers collectively gave up 1,374 base hits and 638 earned runs last year. They allowed 141 home runs last season and they allowed 0.9 homers per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a pitching staff walked 508 batters and struck out 1,152. They walked 3.2 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.3 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.32 and their FIP as a unit was 3.98.
As a team, Miami batted .260, good for 8th in the league while putting together a .260 average away from home. The Marlins held a .384 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .310 which was good for 23rd in baseball. They ranked 9th in baseball with 8.77 hits per game. Dee Gordon hit .333 last season and his on-base percentage was at .359. He had 205 hits last season along with 88 runs scored and 46 runs batted in. He struck out 91 times and walked 25 times. Giancarlo Stanton hit .265 and he had an on-base percentage of .346 last year. He totaled 74 hits while scoring 47 runs and he drove in 67. He walked 34 times and struck out 95 times. The Marlins had 1,420 hits, including 236 doubles, 40 triples, and 120 home runs. They stole 112 bases while they were thrown out stealing 45 times. Miami walked 375 times last season and they struck out 1,150 times as a unit. They left 1,059 men on base and had a team OPS of .694. They scored 3.78 runs per contest and scored a total of 613 runs last season.
Washington comes into this matchup after having a 46-35 home record and a 83 - 79 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 4.38, Tanner Roark will come into this game after holding a 4 - 7 record and a 1.31 WHIP. He had 70 strikeouts over the 111 innings he pitched during which he gave up 119 hits. He allowed 9.6 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 4.7. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.46 and they gave up 431 base hits last year. Teams hit .240 against the Nationals bullpen while being struck out 421 times and walking 142 times last season. As a team, Washington allowed 8.57 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.42 batters per nine. They were 7th in the league in team earned run average at 3.62. The Nationals pitchers as a team surrendered 1,366 base knocks and 577 earned runs last season. They gave up 145 home runs last year and they gave up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Washington as a staff walked 364 hitters and struck out 1,342. They gave up a walk 2.3 times per 9 innings while they struck out 8.4 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.21 while their FIP as a staff was 3.45.
As a team, they hit .251, good for 16th in the league while putting together a .257 average at home. The Nationals held a .403 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .321 which was good for 12th in baseball. They ranked 22nd in baseball with 8.41 hits per contest. Bryce Harper batted .330 last season and he had an OBP of .460. He had 172 hits last year along with 118 runs scored and 99 RBI. He struck out 131 times and walked on 124 occasions. Yunel Escobar hit .314 and he had an OBP of .375. He collected 168 hits last year while he scored 75 runs and drove in 56. He earned a walk 45 times and punched out 70 times. The Nationals as a unit had 1,363 base hits last year, including 265 doubles, 13 triples, and 177 homers. They had 57 stolen bases while they were thrown out 23 times. Washington as a team walked 539 times last year and they struck out 1,344 times. They had 1,114 men left on base and had an OPS of .724. They scored 4.34 runs per game and totaled 703 runs last season.
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Miami Marlins were 77-77-8 against the over/under last season
The Miami Marlins were 78-84-0 against the run line last season
Washington Nationals Betting Trends
The Washington Nationals were 83-71-8 against the over/under last season
The Washington Nationals were 71-91-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/03/16 P Carter Capps Arm Injury is on the 60 day disabled list; out for season
04/03/16 P Mike Dunn Forearm Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25)
04/06/16 LF Ben Revere Ribs "?" Wednesday vs. Atlanta Braves
03/31/16 P Aaron Barrett Elbow Injury is on the 60 day disabled list (4/1)
Guy's Pick: Take the Nationals
Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here
Read more articles by Guy Bruhn
Get all of Today's Free MLB Picks
Get all of Today's Expert MLB Picks