Thursday, April 28, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Zach Davies vs. Jon Lester
The Milwaukee Brewers visit Wrigley Field on Thursday to play the Chicago Cubs. The probable starters are Zach Davies for the Brewers and Jon Lester for the Cubs. The opening line for this matchup has Milwaukee at +233 and Chicago at -255. The over/under was set at 8. The Brewers have a 12-7-1 over/under record and a 10-10-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 50% of the time. The Cubs are 14-6-0 against the run line and have a 11-8-1 over/under record. They cover the spread 70% of the time.
The Brewers head into this matchup with a 8-12 record, including 3-6 on the road. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 0-2 record with an earned run average of 9.72 and a WHIP of 2.52. He has 5 strikeouts over his 8.1 innings pitched and he has given up 17 hits so far this season. He has allowed 18.4 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.26. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 5.07 and they have given up 82 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .287 against the bullpen while being struck out 59 times and walking 33 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 10.62 hits per nine innings while striking out 6.96 batters per nine. They are 28th in the league in team earned run average at 5.49. The Brewers pitchers have collectively given up 203 base hits and 105 earned runs. They have allowed 31 home runs this season and they allow 1.6 homers per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a pitching staff has walked 79 batters and struck out 133. They walk 4.1 men per 9 innings while striking out 7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.64 and their FIP as a unit is 5.36.
As a team, Milwaukee is batting .230, good for 26th in the league while putting together a .199 average away from home. The Brewers hold a .384 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .310 which is good for 19th in baseball. They rank 30th in baseball with 7.25 hits per game. Ryan Braun comes into this game hitting .373 and his on-base percentage is at .440. He has 25 hits this season along with 12 runs scored and 17 runs batted in. He's struck out 13 times and has walked 8 times. Domingo Santana is hitting .260 and he has an on-base percentage of .341. He has totaled 19 hits so far while scoring 9 runs and he's driven in 9. He has walked 9 times and has struck out 25 times. The Brewers have 145 hits, including 37 doubles and 20 home runs. They've stolen 8 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 5 times. Milwaukee has walked 75 times this season and they've struck out 187 times as a unit. They've left 122 men on base and have a team OPS of .695. They score 3.95 runs per contest and have scored a total of 79 runs so far this year.
Chicago comes into this matchup with a 5-2 home record and a 15-5 overall mark. With an earned run average of 1.98, Jon Lester has a 2-1 record and a 0.84 WHIP. He has 23 strikeouts over the 27.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 18 hits. He has allowed 5.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.39. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.26 and they have given up 31 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .182 against the Cubs bullpen while being struck out 56 times and walking 15 times this season. As a team, Chicago has allowed 6.33 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.76 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 2.58. The Cubs pitchers as a team have surrendered 125 base knocks and 51 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 14 home runs this year and they give up 0.7 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Chicago as a staff has walked 45 hitters and struck out 173. They give up a walk 2.3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 0.96 while their FIP as a staff is 2.97.
As a team, they are batting .255, good for 10th in the league while putting together a .209 average at home. The Cubs hold a .434 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .356 which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 12th in baseball with 8.65 hits per contest. Anthony Rizzo comes into this matchup batting .205 and he has an OBP of .356. He has 15 hits this year along with 14 runs scored and 22 RBI. He's struck out 13 times and has walked on 14 occasions. Kris Bryant is hitting .280 and he has an OBP of .352. He has collected 23 hits so far while he's scored 15 runs and drove in 15. He has earned a walk 9 times and has punched out 18 times. The Cubs as a unit have 173 base hits, including 37 doubles and 26 homers. They have 12 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 5 times. Chicago as a team has walked 103 times this year and they have struck out 159 times. They've had 153 men left on base and have an OPS of .790. They score 6.15 runs per game and have totaled 123 runs so far this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 12-7-1 against the over/under so far this season
The Milwaukee Brewers are 10-10-0 against the run line so far this season
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends
The Chicago Cubs are 11-8-1 against the over/under so far this season
The Chicago Cubs are 14-6-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
04/04/16 P Corey Knebel Oblique 15-day DL (4/1)
04/04/16 P Matt Garza Shoulder 15-day DL (4/2)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
03/30/16 P Will Smith Knee 15-day DL (3/25)
04/26/16 C Miguel Montero Back "?" Wednesday vs. Milwaukee Brewers
04/08/16 C Kyle Schwarber Knee 60-day DL (4/8); out for season
04/04/16 P Aaron Brooks Hip 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 3B Christian Villanueva Fibula 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Dallas Beeler Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Zac Rosscup Shoulder 60-day DL (2/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Cubs
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