Saturday, July 16, 2016
Great American Ball Park
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Probable Pitchers: Jimmy Nelson vs. John Lamb
The Milwaukee Brewers visit Great American Ball Park on Saturday to play the Cincinnati Reds. The probable starters are Jimmy Nelson for the Brewers and John Lamb for the Reds. The opening line for this matchup has Milwaukee at -105 and Cincinnati at -105. The over/under was set at 9.5. The Brewers have a 42-40-5 over/under record and a 44-43-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 51% of the time. The Reds are 43-46-0 against the run line and have a 50-32-7 over/under record. They cover the spread 48% of the time.
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The Brewers head into this matchup with a 38-49 record, including 15-27 on the road. Starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson has a 5-7 record with an earned run average of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.38. He has 76 strikeouts over his 107 innings pitched and he has given up 100 hits so far this season. He has allowed 8.4 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.81. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.09 and they have given up 297 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .260 against the bullpen while being struck out 275 times and walking 126 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 9.33 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.43 batters per nine. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.50. The Brewers pitchers have collectively given up 799 base hits and 385 earned runs. They have allowed 110 home runs this season and they allow 1.3 homers per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a pitching staff has walked 308 batters and struck out 636. They walk 3.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.4 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.44 and their FIP as a unit is 4.74.
As a team, Milwaukee is batting .245, good for 22nd in the league while putting together a .243 average away from home. The Brewers hold a .392 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .322 which is good for 17th in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 8.05 hits per game. Ryan Braun comes into this game hitting .312 and his on-base percentage is at .367. He has 88 hits this season along with 35 runs scored and 44 runs batted in. He's struck out 51 times and has walked 22 times. Jonathan Lucroy is hitting .304 and he has an on-base percentage of .361. He has totaled 89 hits so far while scoring 42 runs and he's driven in 42. He has walked 27 times and has struck out 58 times. The Brewers have 700 hits, including 135 doubles and 89 home runs. They've stolen 77 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 29 times. Milwaukee has walked 319 times this season and they've struck out 833 times as a unit. They've left 595 men on base and have a team OPS of .715. They score 3.93 runs per contest and have scored a total of 342 runs so far this year.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup with a 18-25 home record and a 32-57 overall mark. With an earned run average of 5.43, John Lamb has a 1-6 record and a 1.53 WHIP. He has 55 strikeouts over the 68 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 75 hits. He has allowed 9.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.18. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 5.73 and they have given up 338 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .263 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 285 times and walking 178 times this season. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed 9.46 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.34 batters per nine. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.46. The Reds pitchers as a team have surrendered 837 base knocks and 483 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 154 home runs this year and they give up 1.7 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff has walked 386 hitters and struck out 649. They give up a walk 4.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.54 while their FIP as a staff is 5.69.
As a team, they are batting .238, good for 28th in the league while putting together a .234 average at home. The Reds hold a .397 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .298 which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 29th in baseball with 7.99 hits per contest. Jay Bruce comes into this matchup batting .267 and he has an OBP of .315. He has 85 hits this year along with 48 runs scored and 63 RBI. He's struck out 69 times and has walked on 21 occasions. Brandon Phillips is hitting .259 and he has an OBP of .298. He has collected 83 hits so far while he's scored 39 runs and drove in 34. He has earned a walk 13 times and has punched out 44 times. The Reds as a unit have 710 base hits, including 150 doubles and 98 homers. They have 65 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 30 times. Cincinnati as a team has walked 235 times this year and they have struck out 750 times. They've had 503 men left on base and have an OPS of .694. They score 4.22 runs per game and have totaled 376 runs so far this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 42-40-5 against the over/under so far this season
The Milwaukee Brewers are 44-43-0 against the run line so far this season
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds are 50-32-7 against the over/under so far this season
The Cincinnati Reds are 43-46-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
06/10/16 RF Domingo Santana Elbow 15-day DL (6/8)
05/27/16 P Chris Capuano Elbow 60-day DL (4/2)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
06/23/16 P Alfredo Simon Trapezius 15-day DL (6/16)
06/01/16 P Caleb Cotham Shoulder 15-day DL (5/29)
05/20/16 P Tim Adleman Oblique 15-day DL (5/20)
05/02/16 C Devin Mesoraco Shoulder 60-day DL (5/1); out for season
04/10/16 CF Yorman Rodriguez Hamstring 60-day DL (3/27)
04/04/16 P Homer Bailey Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Brewers
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