Saturday, May 21, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Zach Davies vs. Jacob DeGrom
The Milwaukee Brewers visit Citi Field on Saturday to play the New York Mets. The probable starters are Zach Davies for the Brewers and Jacob DeGrom for the Mets. The opening line for this matchup has Milwaukee at +207 and New York at -225. The over/under was set at 7.5. The Brewers have a 23-16-2 over/under record and a 19-22-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 46% of the time. The Mets are 17-23-0 against the run line and have a 19-20-1 over/under record. They cover the spread 43% of the time.
The Brewers head into this matchup with a 18-23 record, including 6-11 on the road. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 1-3 record with an earned run average of 5.58 and a WHIP of 1.60. He has 20 strikeouts over his 30.2 innings pitched and he has given up 36 hits so far this season. He has allowed 10.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.53. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.04 and they have given up 145 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .265 against the bullpen while being struck out 122 times and walking 68 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 9.62 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.1 batters per nine. They are 27th in the league in team earned run average at 4.87. The Brewers pitchers have collectively given up 389 base hits and 197 earned runs. They have allowed 59 home runs this season and they allow 1.5 homers per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a pitching staff has walked 159 batters and struck out 287. They walk 3.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.51 and their FIP as a unit is 5.05.
As a team, Milwaukee is batting .245, good for 18th in the league while putting together a .227 average away from home. The Brewers hold a .400 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .331 which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 20th in baseball with 8.05 hits per game. Ryan Braun comes into this game hitting .364 and his on-base percentage is at .429. He has 48 hits this season along with 21 runs scored and 28 runs batted in. He's struck out 21 times and has walked 15 times. Jonathan Lucroy is hitting .304 and he has an on-base percentage of .373. He has totaled 42 hits so far while scoring 23 runs and he's driven in 16. He has walked 14 times and has struck out 28 times. The Brewers have 330 hits, including 71 doubles and 45 home runs. They've stolen 29 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 15 times. Milwaukee has walked 172 times this season and they've struck out 392 times as a unit. They've left 287 men on base and have a team OPS of .731. They score 4.32 runs per contest and have scored a total of 177 runs so far this year.
New York comes into this matchup with a 10-8 home record and a 22-18 overall mark. With an earned run average of 2.50, Jacob DeGrom has a 3-1 record and a 1.19 WHIP. He has 23 strikeouts over the 36 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 35 hits. He has allowed 8.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.21. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 2.48 and they have given up 96 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .211 against the Mets bullpen while being struck out 133 times and walking 40 times this season. As a team, New York has allowed 8.71 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.86 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.18. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 342 base knocks and 125 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 25 home runs this year and they give up 0.6 home runs per nine innings as a staff. New York as a staff has walked 95 hitters and struck out 348. They give up a walk 2.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.24 while their FIP as a staff is 2.91.
As a team, they are batting .235, good for 23rd in the league while putting together a .217 average at home. The Mets hold a .418 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .313 which is good for 20th in baseball. They rank 27th in baseball with 7.8 hits per contest. Asdrubal Cabrera comes into this matchup batting .281 and he has an OBP of .340. He has 41 hits this year along with 12 runs scored and 12 RBI. He's struck out 28 times and has walked on 7 occasions. Michael Conforto is hitting .275 and he has an OBP of .347. He has collected 36 hits so far while he's scored 18 runs and drove in 21. He has earned a walk 13 times and has punched out 33 times. The Mets as a unit have 312 base hits, including 65 doubles and 56 homers. They have 10 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 6 times. New York as a team has walked 134 times this year and they have struck out 350 times. They've had 279 men left on base and have an OPS of .731. They score 3.9 runs per game and have totaled 156 runs so far this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 23-16-2 against the over/under so far this season
The Milwaukee Brewers are 19-22-0 against the run line so far this season
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 19-20-1 against the over/under so far this season
The New York Mets are 17-23-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
05/20/16 LF Ryan Braun Back is downgraded to doubtful Friday vs. New York Mets
05/19/16 RF Domingo Santana Shoulder "?" Friday vs. New York Mets
04/28/16 P Matt Garza Shoulder 60-day DL (4/2)
04/04/16 P Corey Knebel Oblique 15-day DL (4/1)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
03/30/16 P Will Smith Knee 15-day DL (3/25)
New York Mets
05/12/16 SS Wilmer Flores Hamstring 15-day DL (5/11)
04/26/16 C Travis d'Arnaud Shoulder 15-day DL (4/25)
04/04/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Mets
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