Monday, July 4, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Junior Guerra vs. Max Scherzer
The Milwaukee Brewers visit Nationals Park on Monday to play the Washington Nationals. The probable starters are Junior Guerra for the Brewers and Max Scherzer for the Nationals. The opening line for this matchup has Milwaukee at +199 and Washington at -215. The over/under was set at 8. The Brewers have a 40-36-4 over/under record and a 40-40-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 50% of the time. The Nationals are 42-40-0 against the run line and have a 41-35-6 over/under record. They cover the spread 51% of the time.
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The Brewers head into this matchup with a 35-45 record, including 13-25 on the road. Starting pitcher Junior Guerra has a 5-1 record with an earned run average of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.07. He has 60 strikeouts over his 69.1 innings pitched and he has given up 53 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6.9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.7. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.00 and they have given up 272 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .259 against the bullpen while being struck out 256 times and walking 118 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 9.3 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.5 batters per nine. They are 20th in the league in team earned run average at 4.47. The Brewers pitchers have collectively given up 733 base hits and 352 earned runs. They have allowed 99 home runs this season and they allow 1.3 homers per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a pitching staff has walked 278 batters and struck out 591. They walk 3.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.5 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.43 and their FIP as a unit is 4.65.
As a team, Milwaukee is batting .246, good for 21st in the league while putting together a .239 average away from home. The Brewers hold a .394 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .324 which is good for 16th in baseball. They rank 26th in baseball with 8.06 hits per game. Ryan Braun comes into this game hitting .319 and his on-base percentage is at .376. He has 82 hits this season along with 34 runs scored and 44 runs batted in. He's struck out 44 times and has walked 21 times. Jonathan Lucroy is hitting .295 and he has an on-base percentage of .356. He has totaled 79 hits so far while scoring 38 runs and he's driven in 38. He has walked 26 times and has struck out 54 times. The Brewers have 645 hits, including 123 doubles and 83 home runs. They've stolen 68 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 27 times. Milwaukee has walked 298 times this season and they've struck out 758 times as a unit. They've left 545 men on base and have a team OPS of .718. They score 3.98 runs per contest and have scored a total of 318 runs so far this year.
Washington comes into this matchup with a 25-13 home record and a 49-33 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.30, Max Scherzer has a 9-5 record and a 0.96 WHIP. He has 148 strikeouts over the 114.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 81 hits. He has allowed 6.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.66. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.13 and they have given up 189 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .223 against the Nationals bullpen while being struck out 239 times and walking 74 times this season. As a team, Washington has allowed 7.74 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.46 batters per nine. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.34. The Nationals pitchers as a team have surrendered 638 base knocks and 275 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 77 home runs this year and they give up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Washington as a staff has walked 222 hitters and struck out 780. They give up a walk 2.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.5 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.16 while their FIP as a staff is 3.42.
As a team, they are batting .251, good for 17th in the league while putting together a .250 average at home. The Nationals hold a .425 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .326 which is good for 14th in baseball. They rank 17th in baseball with 8.51 hits per contest. Bryce Harper comes into this matchup batting .258 and he has an OBP of .402. He has 67 hits this year along with 46 runs scored and 47 RBI. He's struck out 53 times and has walked on 65 occasions. Daniel Murphy is hitting .346 and he has an OBP of .387. He has collected 106 hits so far while he's scored 47 runs and drove in 55. He has earned a walk 17 times and has punched out 35 times. The Nationals as a unit have 698 base hits, including 134 doubles and 108 homers. They have 50 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 23 times. Washington as a team has walked 294 times this year and they have struck out 631 times. They've had 566 men left on base and have an OPS of .751. They score 4.66 runs per game and have totaled 382 runs so far this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 40-36-4 against the over/under so far this season
The Milwaukee Brewers are 40-40-0 against the run line so far this season
Washington Nationals Betting Trends
The Washington Nationals are 41-35-6 against the over/under so far this season
The Washington Nationals are 42-40-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
06/10/16 RF Domingo Santana Elbow 15-day DL (6/8)
05/27/16 P Chris Capuano Elbow 15-day DL (4/2)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
07/03/16 P Stephen Strasburg Back 15-day DL (6/16); expected to be activated & start Sunday vs. Cincinnati Reds
06/14/16 P Jonathan Papelbon Side 15-day DL (6/13)
03/31/16 P Aaron Barrett Elbow 60-day DL (4/1)
Tony's Pick: Take the Brewers
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