Monday, April 4, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Ervin Santana vs. Chris Tillman
The Minnesota Twins visit Oriole Park on Monday to play the Baltimore Orioles. The probable starters are Ervin Santana for the Twins and Chris Tillman for the Orioles. The opening line for this matchup has Minnesota at +109 and Baltimore at -119. The over/under was set at 8. The Twins had a 72-78-12 over/under record last season and a 94-68-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 58% of the time. The Orioles were 81-81-0 against the run line and had a 73-80-9 over/under record. They covered the spread 50% of the time.
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The Twins head into this matchup coming off a 83 - 79 season, including 37-44 on the road. Starting pitcher Ervin Santana had a 7 - 5 record with an earned run average of 4 and a WHIP of 1.30. He had 82 strikeouts over his 108 innings pitched and he also gave up 104 hits over that time period. He allowed 8.7 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 4.17. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.95 and they gave up 501 base hits on the year. Teams hit .249 against the bullpen while being struck out 392 times and walking 164 times last season. As a team, Minnesota allowed 9.39 hits per nine innings while striking out 6.52 batters per nine. They were 19th in the league in team earned run average at 4.07. The Twins pitchers collectively gave up 1,506 base hits and 653 earned runs last year. They allowed 163 home runs last season and they allowed 1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Minnesota as a pitching staff walked 413 batters and struck out 1,046. They walked 2.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 6.5 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.33 and their FIP as a unit was 4.10.
As a team, Minnesota batted .247, good for 26th in the league while putting together a .231 average away from home. The Twins held a .399 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .305 which was good for 28th in baseball. They ranked 25th in baseball with 8.33 hits per game. Brian Dozier hit .236 last season and his on-base percentage was at .307. He had 148 hits last season along with 101 runs scored and 77 runs batted in. He struck out 148 times and walked 61 times. Joe Mauer hit .265 and he had an on-base percentage of .338 last year. He totaled 157 hits while scoring 69 runs and he drove in 66. He walked 67 times and struck out 112 times. The Twins had 1,349 hits, including 277 doubles, 44 triples, and 156 home runs. They stole 70 bases while they were thrown out stealing 38 times. Minnesota walked 439 times last season and they struck out 1,264 times as a unit. They left 993 men on base and had a team OPS of .704. They scored 4.3 runs per contest and scored a total of 696 runs last season.
Baltimore comes into this matchup after having a 47-31 home record and a 81 - 81 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 4.99, Chris Tillman will come into this game after holding a 11 - 11 record and a 1.39 WHIP. He had 120 strikeouts over the 173 innings he pitched during which he gave up 176 hits. He allowed 9.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 4.45. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.21 and they gave up 463 base hits last year. Teams hit .235 against the Orioles bullpen while being struck out 518 times and walking 192 times last season. As a team, Baltimore allowed 8.82 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.73 batters per nine. They were 18th in the league in team earned run average at 4.05. The Orioles pitchers as a team surrendered 1,406 base knocks and 646 earned runs last season. They gave up 174 home runs last year and they gave up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Baltimore as a staff walked 483 hitters and struck out 1,233. They gave up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they struck out 7.7 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.32 while their FIP as a staff was 4.11.
As a team, they hit .250, good for 19th in the league while putting together a .269 average at home. The Orioles held a .421 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .307 which was good for 24th in baseball. They ranked 21st in baseball with 8.46 hits per contest. Chris Davis batted .262 last season and he had an OBP of .361. He had 150 hits last year along with 100 runs scored and 117 RBI. He struck out 208 times and walked on 84 occasions. Manny Machado hit .286 and he had an OBP of .359. He collected 181 hits last year while he scored 102 runs and drove in 86. He earned a walk 70 times and punched out 111 times. The Orioles as a unit had 1,370 base hits last year, including 246 doubles, 20 triples, and 217 homers. They had 44 stolen bases while they were thrown out 25 times. Baltimore as a team walked 418 times last year and they struck out 1,331 times. They had 990 men left on base and had an OPS of .728. They scored 4.4 runs per game and totaled 713 runs last season.
Minnesota Twins Betting Trends
The Minnesota Twins were 72-78-12 against the over/under last season
The Minnesota Twins were 94-68-0 against the run line last season
Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles were 73-80-9 against the over/under last season
The Baltimore Orioles were 81-81-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
No key injuries to report
03/31/16 3B Jimmy Paredes Wrist out indefinitely
03/30/16 P Kevin Gausman Shoulder out indefinitely
Guy's Pick: Take the Twins
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