Sunday, September 11, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Williams Perez
The New York Mets visit Turner Field on Sunday to play the Atlanta Braves. The probable starters are Seth Lugo for the Mets and Williams Perez for the Braves. The opening line for this matchup has New York at -131 and Atlanta at +121. The over/under was set at 9. The Mets have a 65-73-3 over/under record and a 67-74-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 48% of the time. The Braves are 72-69-0 against the run line and have a 71-62-8 over/under record. They cover the spread 51% of the time.
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The Mets head into this matchup with a 75-66 record, including 37-33 on the road. Starting pitcher Seth Lugo has a 3-2 record with an earned run average of 2.38 and a WHIP of 0.98. He has 32 strikeouts over his 41.2 innings pitched and he has given up 30 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.32. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.60 and they have given up 391 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .233 against the bullpen while being struck out 469 times and walking 159 times this season. As a team, New York has allowed 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.62 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.58. The Mets pitchers have collectively given up 1,212 base hits and 497 earned runs. They have allowed 129 home runs this season and they allow 0.9 homers per nine innings as a staff. New York as a pitching staff has walked 376 batters and struck out 1,202. They walk 2.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.27 and their FIP as a unit is 3.54.
As a team, New York is batting .243, good for 28th in the league while putting together a .251 average away from home. The Mets hold a .416 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312 which is good for 26th in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 8.13 hits per game. Yoenis Cespedes comes into this game hitting .294 and his on-base percentage is at .364. He has 118 hits this season along with 60 runs scored and 72 runs batted in. He's struck out 96 times and has walked 43 times. Asdrubal Cabrera is hitting .274 and he has an on-base percentage of .326. He has totaled 121 hits so far while scoring 54 runs and he's driven in 48. He has walked 28 times and has struck out 95 times. The Mets have 1,146 hits, including 205 doubles and 193 home runs. They've stolen 34 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 16 times. New York has walked 431 times this season and they've struck out 1,148 times as a unit. They've left 955 men on base and have a team OPS of .727. They score 3.96 runs per contest and have scored a total of 558 runs so far this year.
Atlanta comes into this matchup with a 22-45 home record and a 54-87 overall mark. With an earned run average of 5.47, Williams Perez has a 2-2 record and a 1.31 WHIP. He has 25 strikeouts over the 51 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 53 hits. He has allowed 9.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.64. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 4.17 and they have given up 476 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .251 against the Braves bullpen while being struck out 482 times and walking 229 times this season. As a team, Atlanta has allowed 8.81 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.68 batters per nine. They are 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.55. The Braves pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,243 base knocks and 642 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 159 home runs this year and they give up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Atlanta as a staff has walked 485 hitters and struck out 1,083. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.36 while their FIP as a staff is 4.35.
As a team, they are batting .250, good for 22nd in the league while putting together a .253 average at home. The Braves hold a .375 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .317 which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 19th in baseball with 8.58 hits per contest. Nick Markakis comes into this matchup batting .268 and he has an OBP of .343. He has 143 hits this year along with 56 runs scored and 77 RBI. He's struck out 92 times and has walked on 63 occasions. Freddie Freeman is hitting .292 and he has an OBP of .391. He has collected 153 hits so far while he's scored 87 runs and drove in 73. He has earned a walk 78 times and has punched out 151 times. The Braves as a unit have 1,210 base hits, including 260 doubles and 101 homers. They have 64 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 31 times. Atlanta as a team has walked 442 times this year and they have struck out 1,073 times. They've had 1,022 men left on base and have an OPS of .692. They score 3.86 runs per game and have totaled 544 runs so far this season.
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 65-73-3 against the over/under so far this season
The New York Mets are 67-74-0 against the run line so far this season
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends
The Atlanta Braves are 71-62-8 against the over/under so far this season
The Atlanta Braves are 72-69-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
New York Mets
09/10/16 P Seth Lugo Finger expected to start Sunday vs. Atlanta Braves
09/07/16 P Jacob deGrom Forearm out indefinitely
09/03/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow 60-day DL (3/25); out for season
08/31/16 2B Neil Walker Back 60-day DL, out for season
08/27/16 RF Justin Ruggiano Shoulder 60-day DL (8/27)
08/23/16 P Steven Matz Shoulder 15-day DL (8/15)
08/23/16 P Jon Niese Knee 15-day DL (8/24)
07/31/16 CF Juan Lagares Thumb 15-day DL (7/29)
07/06/16 P Matt Harvey Shoulder 60-day DL (7/6), out for season
06/03/16 3B David Wright Neck 60-day DL (5/30), out for season
05/24/16 1B Lucas Duda Back 60-day DL (5/21)
09/05/16 P Matt Wisler Abdominal "?" for next scheduled start
09/04/16 P Aaron Blair Knee 15-day DL (8/29)
09/02/16 P Eric O'Flaherty Elbow 60-day DL (8/18)
08/31/16 P Arodys Vizcaino Shoulder 15-day DL (8/29)
08/26/16 P Rob Whalen Shoulder 15-day DL (8/25)
08/01/16 P Matt Marksberry Shoulder 15-day DL (7/31)
06/20/16 LF Mallex Smith Thumb 60-day DL (6/20)
04/12/16 P Daniel Winkler Elbow 60-day DL (4/11)
04/04/16 P Andrew McKirahan Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Paco Rodriguez Elbow out for season
Guy's Pick: Take the Mets
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