Wednesday, September 28, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Jose Urena
The New York Mets visit Marlins Park on Wednesday to play the Miami Marlins. The probable starters are Seth Lugo for the Mets and Jose Urena for the Marlins. The opening line for this matchup has New York at -129 and Miami at +119. The over/under was set at 8.5. The Mets have a 73-81-3 over/under record and a 72-85-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 46% of the time. The Marlins are 74-82-0 against the run line and have a 77-73-6 over/under record. They cover the spread 47% of the time.
The Mets head into this matchup with a 83-74 record, including 39-37 on the road. Starting pitcher Seth Lugo has a 4-2 record with an earned run average of 2.61 and a WHIP of 1.06. He has 43 strikeouts over his 58.2 innings pitched and he has given up 44 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6.8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.13. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.58 and they have given up 460 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .235 against the bullpen while being struck out 548 times and walking 185 times this season. As a team, New York has allowed 8.72 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.66 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.62. The Mets pitchers have collectively given up 1,359 base hits and 564 earned runs. They have allowed 149 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. New York as a pitching staff has walked 430 batters and struck out 1,350. They walk 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.28 and their FIP as a unit is 3.59.
As a team, New York is batting .243, good for 27th in the league while putting together a .249 average away from home. The Mets hold a .414 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .314 which is good for 24th in baseball. They rank 27th in baseball with 8.18 hits per game. Yoenis Cespedes comes into this game hitting .283 and his on-base percentage is at .355. He has 131 hits this season along with 68 runs scored and 83 runs batted in. He's struck out 107 times and has walked 48 times. Asdrubal Cabrera is hitting .283 and he has an on-base percentage of .340. He has totaled 142 hits so far while scoring 64 runs and he's driven in 61. He has walked 37 times and has struck out 102 times. The Mets have 1,284 hits, including 230 doubles and 212 home runs. They've stolen 41 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 17 times. New York has walked 500 times this season and they've struck out 1,272 times as a unit. They've left 1,080 men on base and have a team OPS of .729. They score 4.09 runs per contest and have scored a total of 642 runs so far this year.
Miami comes into this matchup with a 40-38 home record and a 78-78 overall mark. With an earned run average of 5.95, Jose Urena has a 4-8 record and a 1.40 WHIP. He has 56 strikeouts over the 78.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 83 hits. He has allowed 9.5 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.46. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.57 and they have given up 469 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .231 against the Marlins bullpen while being struck out 553 times and walking 251 times this season. As a team, Miami has allowed 8.44 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 3.96. The Marlins pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,305 base knocks and 613 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 144 home runs this year and they give up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a staff has walked 570 hitters and struck out 1,346. They give up a walk 3.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.35 while their FIP as a staff is 3.91.
As a team, they are batting .264, good for 4th in the league while putting together a .251 average at home. The Marlins hold a .396 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .323 which is good for 12th in baseball. They rank 5th in baseball with 9.08 hits per contest. Christian Yelich comes into this matchup batting .294 and he has an OBP of .372. He has 165 hits this year along with 75 runs scored and 95 RBI. He's struck out 136 times and has walked on 68 occasions. Martin Prado is hitting .305 and he has an OBP of .360. He has collected 179 hits so far while he's scored 68 runs and drove in 73. He has earned a walk 49 times and has punched out 68 times. The Marlins as a unit have 1,417 base hits, including 254 doubles and 124 homers. They have 67 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 26 times. Miami as a team has walked 432 times this year and they have struck out 1,170 times. They've had 1,133 men left on base and have an OPS of .718. They score 4.08 runs per game and have totaled 637 runs so far this season.
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 73-81-3 against the over/under so far this season
The New York Mets are 72-85-0 against the run line so far this season
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Miami Marlins are 77-73-6 against the over/under so far this season
The Miami Marlins are 74-82-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
New York Mets
09/21/16 P Steven Matz Shoulder 15-day DL (8/15)
09/21/16 3B Wilmer Flores Wrist out indefinitely
09/18/16 P Jon Niese Knee 60-day DL (8/24)
09/17/16 P Jacob deGrom Forearm out for season
09/03/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow 60-day DL (3/25); out for season
08/31/16 2B Neil Walker Back 60-day DL, out for season
08/27/16 RF Justin Ruggiano Shoulder 60-day DL (8/27)
07/06/16 P Matt Harvey Shoulder 60-day DL (7/6), out for season
06/03/16 3B David Wright Neck 60-day DL (5/30), out for season
05/15/16 P Kendry Flores Shoulder 15-day DL (5/15)
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Mets
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