Sunday, May 8, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Justin Nicolino
The Philadelphia Phillies visit Marlins Park on Sunday to play the Miami Marlins. The probable starters are Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Justin Nicolino for the Marlins. The opening line for this matchup has Philadelphia at +105 and Miami at -115. The over/under was set at 8. The Phillies have a 13-15-2 over/under record and a 17-13-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 57% of the time. The Marlins are 16-12-0 against the run line and have a 17-11-0 over/under record. They cover the spread 57% of the time.
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The Phillies head into this matchup with a 16-14 record, including 8-9 on the road. Starting pitcher Aaron Nola has a 2-2 record with an earned run average of 2.93 and a WHIP of 0.80. He has 44 strikeouts over his 40 innings pitched and he has given up 25 hits so far this season. He has allowed 5.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.38. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.42 and they have given up 90 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .245 against the bullpen while being struck out 101 times and walking 41 times this season. As a team, Philadelphia has allowed 7.85 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.57 batters per nine. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 3.94. The Phillies pitchers have collectively given up 233 base hits and 117 earned runs. They have allowed 38 home runs this season and they allow 1.3 homers per nine innings as a staff. Philadelphia as a pitching staff has walked 87 batters and struck out 284. They walk 2.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.20 and their FIP as a unit is 3.82.
As a team, Philadelphia is batting .227, good for 29th in the league while putting together a .241 average away from home. The Phillies hold a .362 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .284 which is good for 30th in baseball. They rank 30th in baseball with 7.37 hits per game. Maikel Franco comes into this game hitting .250 and his on-base percentage is at .299. He has 27 hits this season along with 9 runs scored and 17 runs batted in. He's struck out 23 times and has walked 7 times. Odubel Herrera is hitting .330 and he has an on-base percentage of .453. He has totaled 34 hits so far while scoring 17 runs and he's driven in 10. He has walked 24 times and has struck out 20 times. The Phillies have 221 hits, including 42 doubles and 25 home runs. They've stolen 11 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 12 times. Philadelphia has walked 74 times this season and they've struck out 245 times as a unit. They've left 172 men on base and have a team OPS of .646. They score 3.13 runs per contest and have scored a total of 94 runs so far this year.
Miami comes into this matchup with a 6-7 home record and a 16-12 overall mark. With an earned run average of 2.70, Justin Nicolino has a 2-0 record and a 1.05 WHIP. He has 2 strikeouts over the 13.1 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 9 hits. He has allowed 6.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.88. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.15 and they have given up 91 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .247 against the Marlins bullpen while being struck out 92 times and walking 38 times this season. As a team, Miami has allowed 8.57 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.99 batters per nine. They are 20th in the league in team earned run average at 4.14. The Marlins pitchers as a team have surrendered 238 base knocks and 115 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 22 home runs this year and they give up 0.8 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Miami as a staff has walked 107 hitters and struck out 222. They give up a walk 3.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.38 while their FIP as a staff is 3.85.
As a team, they are batting .277, good for 3rd in the league while putting together a .256 average at home. The Marlins hold a .427 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .338 which is good for 6th in baseball. They rank 4th in baseball with 9.57 hits per contest. Giancarlo Stanton comes into this matchup batting .274 and he has an OBP of .391. He has 26 hits this year along with 17 runs scored and 24 RBI. He's struck out 32 times and has walked on 18 occasions. Christian Yelich is hitting .337 and he has an OBP of .445. He has collected 33 hits so far while he's scored 18 runs and drove in 16. He has earned a walk 18 times and has punched out 20 times. The Marlins as a unit have 268 base hits, including 47 doubles and 28 homers. They have 10 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 6 times. Miami as a team has walked 85 times this year and they have struck out 209 times. They've had 213 men left on base and have an OPS of .764. They score 4.21 runs per game and have totaled 118 runs so far this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies are 13-15-2 against the over/under so far this season
The Philadelphia Phillies are 17-13-0 against the run line so far this season
Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Miami Marlins are 17-11-0 against the over/under so far this season
The Miami Marlins are 16-12-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
05/01/16 P Dalier Hinojosa Hand 15-day DL (4/29)
04/24/16 P Charlie Morton Hamstring 15-day DL (4/24); out for season
04/14/16 P Daniel Stumpf Suspension 80-game suspension
04/04/16 P Michael Mariot Ankle 15-day DL (3/25)
04/03/16 P Mario Hollands Elbow 60-day DL (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Aaron Altherr Wrist 60-day DL (4/2)
03/31/16 LF Cody Asche Ribs 15-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Matt Harrison Back 60-day DL (4/2)
04/29/16 2B Dee Gordon Suspension expected to miss 80 games
04/20/16 P Edwin Jackson Tricep 15-day DL (4/18)
04/04/16 P Raudel Lazo Shoulder 15-day DL (3/25)
04/03/16 P Carter Capps Arm 60-day DL; out for season
04/03/16 P Mike Dunn Forearm 15-day DL (3/25)
Tony's Pick: Take the Marlins
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