Thursday, September 22, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Adam Morgan vs. Seth Lugo
The Philadelphia Phillies visit Citi Field on Thursday to play the New York Mets. The probable starters are Adam Morgan for the Phillies and Seth Lugo for the Mets. The opening line for this matchup has Philadelphia at +166 and New York at -176. The over/under was set at 8. The Phillies have a 71-72-8 over/under record and a 78-73-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 52% of the time. The Mets are 70-81-0 against the run line and have a 68-80-3 over/under record. They cover the spread 46% of the time.
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The Phillies head into this matchup with a 68-83 record, including 33-41 on the road. Starting pitcher Adam Morgan has a 2-10 record with an earned run average of 5.57 and a WHIP of 1.46. He has 83 strikeouts over his 103.1 innings pitched and he has given up 126 hits so far this season. He has allowed 11 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.98. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.59 and they have given up 498 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .261 against the bullpen while being struck out 472 times and walking 188 times this season. As a team, Philadelphia has allowed 9.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.14 batters per nine. They are 22nd in the league in team earned run average at 4.43. The Phillies pitchers have collectively given up 1,357 base hits and 661 earned runs. They have allowed 197 home runs this season and they allow 1.3 homers per nine innings as a staff. Philadelphia as a pitching staff has walked 422 batters and struck out 1,213. They walk 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.33 and their FIP as a unit is 4.28.
As a team, Philadelphia is batting .238, good for 29th in the league while putting together a .248 average away from home. The Phillies hold a .384 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .298 which is good for 30th in baseball. They rank 29th in baseball with 7.97 hits per game. Odubel Herrera comes into this game hitting .288 and his on-base percentage is at .363. He has 156 hits this season along with 81 runs scored and 48 runs batted in. He's struck out 122 times and has walked 60 times. Cesar Hernandez is hitting .289 and he has an on-base percentage of .360. He has totaled 147 hits so far while scoring 60 runs and he's driven in 36. He has walked 56 times and has struck out 108 times. The Phillies have 1,204 hits, including 221 doubles and 150 home runs. They've stolen 87 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 44 times. Philadelphia has walked 389 times this season and they've struck out 1,275 times as a unit. They've left 957 men on base and have a team OPS of .682. They score 3.71 runs per contest and have scored a total of 560 runs so far this year.
New York comes into this matchup with a 41-35 home record and a 80-71 overall mark. With an earned run average of 2.35, Seth Lugo has a 4-2 record and a 1.04 WHIP. He has 39 strikeouts over the 53.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 40 hits. He has allowed 6.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.77. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.55 and they have given up 428 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .234 against the Mets bullpen while being struck out 515 times and walking 171 times this season. As a team, New York has allowed 8.67 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.67 batters per nine. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.56. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,297 base knocks and 531 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 140 home runs this year and they give up 0.9 home runs per nine innings as a staff. New York as a staff has walked 408 hitters and struck out 1,298. They give up a walk 2.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.27 while their FIP as a staff is 3.54.
As a team, they are batting .242, good for 28th in the league while putting together a .234 average at home. The Mets hold a .412 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .311 which is good for 26th in baseball. They rank 27th in baseball with 8.11 hits per contest. Asdrubal Cabrera comes into this matchup batting .279 and he has an OBP of .335. He has 133 hits this year along with 60 runs scored and 50 RBI. He's struck out 98 times and has walked on 34 occasions. Yoenis Cespedes is hitting .284 and he has an OBP of .354. He has collected 125 hits so far while he's scored 65 runs and drove in 81. He has earned a walk 45 times and has punched out 102 times. The Mets as a unit have 1,224 base hits, including 217 doubles and 203 homers. They have 38 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 16 times. New York as a team has walked 465 times this year and they have struck out 1,221 times. They've had 1,031 men left on base and have an OPS of .723. They score 3.92 runs per game and have totaled 592 runs so far this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies are 71-72-8 against the over/under so far this season
The Philadelphia Phillies are 78-73-0 against the run line so far this season
New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 68-80-3 against the over/under so far this season
The New York Mets are 70-81-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
09/20/16 1B Ryan Howard Knee is not expected to be in the starting lineup Wednesday vs. Chicago White Sox
09/04/16 P Vincent Velasquez None out for season
08/17/16 P Aaron Nola Elbow 60-day DL (7/29); out for season
08/09/16 P Zach Eflin Knee 60-day DL (8/9); out for season
05/01/16 P Dalier Hinojosa Hand 15-day DL (4/29)
04/24/16 P Charlie Morton Hamstring 60-day DL (4/24); out for season
03/31/16 P Matt Harrison Back 60-day DL (4/2)
New York Mets
09/18/16 P Jon Niese Knee 60-day DL (8/24)
09/17/16 P Jacob deGrom Forearm out for season
09/03/16 P Zack Wheeler Elbow 60-day DL (3/25); out for season
08/31/16 2B Neil Walker Back 60-day DL, out for season
08/27/16 RF Justin Ruggiano Shoulder 60-day DL (8/27)
08/23/16 P Steven Matz Shoulder 15-day DL (8/15)
07/06/16 P Matt Harvey Shoulder 60-day DL (7/6), out for season
06/03/16 3B David Wright Neck 60-day DL (5/30), out for season
Guy's Pick: Take the Phillies
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