Friday, July 29, 2016
For Updated Odds on This Game Click Here
Probable Pitchers: Steven Brault vs. Junior Guerra
The Pittsburgh Pirates visit Miller Park on Friday to play the Milwaukee Brewers. The probable starters are Steven Brault for the Pirates and Junior Guerra for the Brewers. The opening line for this matchup has Pittsburgh at +185 and Milwaukee at -200. The over/under was set at 7.5. The Pirates have a 59-40-1 over/under record and a 49-51-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 49% of the time. The Brewers are 52-47-0 against the run line and have a 46-46-7 over/under record. They cover the spread 53% of the time.
The Pirates head into this matchup with a 52-48 record, including 23-25 on the road. Starting pitcher Steven Brault has a 0-0 record with an earned run average of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.50. He has 5 strikeouts over his 4 innings pitched and he has given up 4 hits so far this season. He has allowed 9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.14. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.57 and they have given up 338 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .246 against the bullpen while being struck out 302 times and walking 140 times this season. As a team, Pittsburgh has allowed 9.14 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.36 batters per nine. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.28. The Pirates pitchers have collectively given up 918 base hits and 430 earned runs. They have allowed 111 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Pittsburgh as a pitching staff has walked 346 batters and struck out 740. They walk 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.4 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.40 and their FIP as a unit is 4.38.
As a team, Pittsburgh is batting .262, good for 10th in the league while putting together a .250 average away from home. The Pirates hold a .412 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .333 which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 9th in baseball with 9.09 hits per game. Gregory Polanco comes into this game hitting .291 and his on-base percentage is at .365. He has 95 hits this season along with 55 runs scored and 54 runs batted in. He's struck out 76 times and has walked 41 times. Starling Marte is hitting .318 and he has an on-base percentage of .373. He has totaled 112 hits so far while scoring 56 runs and he's driven in 37. He has walked 17 times and has struck out 79 times. The Pirates have 909 hits, including 185 doubles and 95 home runs. They've stolen 77 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 28 times. Pittsburgh has walked 320 times this season and they've struck out 835 times as a unit. They've left 725 men on base and have a team OPS of .745. They score 4.65 runs per contest and have scored a total of 465 runs so far this year.
Milwaukee comes into this matchup with a 26-25 home record and a 43-56 overall mark. With an earned run average of 2.85, Junior Guerra has a 6-2 record and a 1.09 WHIP. He has 80 strikeouts over the 94.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 70 hits. He has allowed 6.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.8. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.85 and they have given up 334 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .260 against the Brewers bullpen while being struck out 314 times and walking 139 times this season. As a team, Milwaukee has allowed 9.28 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.45 batters per nine. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.32. The Brewers pitchers as a team have surrendered 902 base knocks and 420 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 114 home runs this year and they give up 1.2 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Milwaukee as a staff has walked 346 hitters and struck out 724. They give up a walk 3.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.43 while their FIP as a staff is 4.51.
As a team, they are batting .246, good for 23rd in the league while putting together a .249 average at home. The Brewers hold a .393 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .324 which is good for 14th in baseball. They rank 28th in baseball with 8.05 hits per contest. Jonathan Lucroy comes into this matchup batting .300 and he has an OBP of .361. He has 100 hits this year along with 48 runs scored and 50 RBI. He's struck out 70 times and has walked on 33 occasions. Ryan Braun is hitting .321 and he has an OBP of .383. He has collected 104 hits so far while he's scored 50 runs and drove in 46. He has earned a walk 30 times and has punched out 59 times. The Brewers as a unit have 797 base hits, including 150 doubles and 102 homers. They have 96 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 34 times. Milwaukee as a team has walked 369 times this year and they have struck out 950 times. They've had 673 men left on base and have an OPS of .716. They score 4.03 runs per game and have totaled 399 runs so far this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 59-40-1 against the over/under so far this season
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 49-51-0 against the run line so far this season
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers are 46-46-7 against the over/under so far this season
The Milwaukee Brewers are 52-47-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
07/24/16 P Tyler Glasnow Shoulder 15-day DL (7/24)
07/04/16 C Chris Stewart Knee 15-day DL (7/2)
05/24/16 P Ryan Vogelsong Eye 60-day DL (5/24)
07/25/16 3B Will Middlebrooks Leg 15-day DL (7/25)
06/10/16 RF Domingo Santana Elbow 15-day DL (6/8)
05/27/16 P Chris Capuano Elbow 60-day DL (4/2)
04/04/16 LF Rymer Liriano Facial 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Zach Jones Shoulder 60-day DL (3/31)
04/02/16 P Yhonathan Barrios Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Sean Nolin Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Pirates
Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here
Read more articles by Guy Bruhn
Get all of Today's MLB Picks
Get all of Today's Guaranteed Expert MLB Picks