San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs Free MLB Picks & NLDS Game 1 Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 10/6/2016
Friday, October 7, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Johnny Cueto vs. Jon Lester
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The San Francisco Giants visit Wrigley Field on Friday to play the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the NLDS. The probable starters are Johnny Cueto for the Giants and Jon Lester for the Cubs. The Giants have a 75-82-5 over/under record and a 78-84-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 48% of the time. The Cubs are 87-75-0 against the run line and have a 75-79-8 over/under record. They cover the spread 54% of the time.
The Giants head into this matchup with a 87-75 record, including 42-39 on the road. Starting pitcher Johnny Cueto has a 18-5 record with an earned run average of 2.79 and a WHIP of 1.09. He has 198 strikeouts over his 219.2 innings pitched and he has given up 195 hits so far this season. He has allowed 8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.96. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 3.65 and they have given up 430 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .238 against the bullpen while being struck out 420 times and walking 167 times this season. As a team, San Francisco has allowed 8.22 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.07 batters per nine. They are 4th in the league in team earned run average at 3.66. The Giants pitchers have collectively given up 1,333 base hits and 593 earned runs. They have allowed 158 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. San Francisco as a pitching staff has walked 439 batters and struck out 1,309. They walk 2.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.21 and their FIP as a unit is 3.76.
As a team, San Francisco is batting .258, good for 11th in the league while putting together a .244 average away from home. The Giants hold a .398 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .329 which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 10th in baseball with 8.87 hits per game. Brandon Crawford comes into this game hitting .275 and his on-base percentage is at .342. He has 152 hits this season along with 67 runs scored and 84 runs batted in. He's struck out 115 times and has walked 57 times. Buster Posey is hitting .288 and he has an on-base percentage of .362. He has totaled 155 hits so far while scoring 82 runs and he's driven in 80. He has walked 64 times and has struck out 68 times. The Giants have 1,437 hits, including 280 doubles and 130 home runs. They've stolen 79 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 36 times. San Francisco has walked 572 times this season and they've struck out 1,107 times as a unit. They've left 1,188 men on base and have a team OPS of .728. They score 4.41 runs per contest and have scored a total of 715 runs so far this year.
Chicago comes into this matchup with a 57-24 home record and a 103-58 overall mark. With an earned run average of 2.44, Jon Lester has a 19-5 record and a 1.02 WHIP. He has 197 strikeouts over the 202.2 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 154 hits. He has allowed 6.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.41. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.50 and they have given up 365 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .208 against the Cubs bullpen while being struck out 519 times and walking 199 times this season. As a team, Chicago has allowed 6.92 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.88 batters per nine. They are 1st in the league in team earned run average at 3.13. The Cubs pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,125 base knocks and 511 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 163 home runs this year and they give up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Chicago as a staff has walked 495 hitters and struck out 1,441. They give up a walk 3.1 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.11 while their FIP as a staff is 3.77.
As a team, they are batting .256, good for 14th in the league while putting together a .254 average at home. The Cubs hold a .429 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .343 which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 18th in baseball with 8.7 hits per contest. Anthony Rizzo comes into this matchup batting .292 and he has an OBP of .385. He has 170 hits this year along with 94 runs scored and 109 RBI. He's struck out 108 times and has walked on 74 occasions. Kris Bryant is hitting .292 and he has an OBP of .385. He has collected 176 hits so far while he's scored 121 runs and drove in 102. He has earned a walk 75 times and has punched out 154 times. The Cubs as a unit have 1,409 base hits, including 293 doubles and 199 homers. They have 66 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 34 times. Chicago as a team has walked 656 times this year and they have struck out 1,339 times. They've had 1,217 men left on base and have an OPS of .772. They score 4.99 runs per game and have totaled 808 runs so far this season.
San Francisco Giants Betting Trends
The San Francisco Giants are 75-82-5 against the over/under so far this season
The San Francisco Giants are 78-84-0 against the run line so far this season
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends
The Chicago Cubs are 75-79-8 against the over/under so far this season
The Chicago Cubs are 87-75-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
San Francisco Giants
09/29/16 3B Eduardo Nunez Hamstring out indefinitely
09/28/16 RF Mac Williamson Quad 60-day DL (9/27)
09/06/16 P Ray Black Elbow 60-day DL (9/3)
07/07/16 P Cory Gearrin Shoulder 15-day DL (7/6)
06/30/16 P Christopher Heston Oblique 60-day DL (6/29)
04/08/16 C Kyle Schwarber Knee 60-day DL (4/8); out for season
04/04/16 P Aaron Brooks Hip 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 3B Christian Villanueva Fibula 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Dallas Beeler Shoulder 60-day DL (3/25)
03/31/16 P Zac Rosscup Shoulder 60-day DL (2/25)
Guy's Pick: Take the Giants
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