Tuesday, April 19, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Drew Smyly vs. Joe Kelly
The Tampa Bay Rays visit Fenway Park on Tuesday to play the Boston Red Sox. The probable starters are Drew Smyly for the Rays and Joe Kelly for the Red Sox. The opening line for this matchup has Tampa Bay at +111 and Boston at -121. The over/under was set at 8.5. The Rays have a 2-8-2 over/under record and a 4-8-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 33% of the time. The Red Sox are 7-4-0 against the run line and have a 6-5-0 over/under record. They cover the spread 64% of the time.
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The Rays head into this matchup with a 5-7 record, including 0-2 on the road. Starting pitcher Drew Smyly has a 0-2 record with an earned run average of 4.61 and a WHIP of 0.81. He has 16 strikeouts over his 13.2 innings pitched and he has given up 9 hits so far this season. He has allowed 5.9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.06. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 2.62 and they have given up 25 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .202 against the bullpen while being struck out 29 times and walking 8 times this season. As a team, Tampa Bay has allowed 7.73 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.59 batters per nine. They are 7th in the league in team earned run average at 3.23. The Rays pitchers have collectively given up 91 base hits and 38 earned runs. They have allowed 16 home runs this season and they allow 1.4 homers per nine innings as a staff. Tampa Bay as a pitching staff has walked 24 batters and struck out 113. They walk 2 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.09 and their FIP as a unit is 3.70.
As a team, Tampa Bay is batting .212, good for 28th in the league while putting together a .203 average away from home. The Rays hold a .352 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .268 which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 29th in baseball with 6.67 hits per game. Evan Longoria comes into this game hitting .265 and his on-base percentage is at .280. He has 13 hits this season along with 6 runs scored and 6 runs batted in. He's struck out 9 times and has walked 1 time. Logan Forsythe is hitting .220 and he has an on-base percentage of .273. He has totaled 9 hits so far while scoring 5 runs and he's driven in 4. He has walked 3 times and has struck out 12 times. The Rays have 80 hits, including 12 doubles and 13 home runs. They've stolen 4 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 5 times. Tampa Bay has walked 25 times this season and they've struck out 103 times as a unit. They've left 65 men on base and have a team OPS of .614. They score 2.83 runs per contest and have scored a total of 34 runs so far this year.
Boston comes into this matchup with a 3-4 home record and a 6-6 overall mark. With an earned run average of 10.13, Joe Kelly has a 1-0 record and a 2.75 WHIP. He has 10 strikeouts over the 8 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 14 hits. He has allowed 15.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 7.23. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.41 and they have given up 28 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .212 against the Red Sox bullpen while being struck out 44 times and walking 13 times this season. As a team, Boston has allowed 8.35 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.76 batters per nine. They are 25th in the league in team earned run average at 4.82. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 90 base knocks and 52 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 15 home runs this year and they give up 1.4 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Boston as a staff has walked 36 hitters and struck out 116. They give up a walk 3.3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 10.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.30 while their FIP as a staff is 4.06.
As a team, they are batting .269, good for 7th in the league while putting together a .262 average at home. The Red Sox hold a .426 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .338 which is good for 6th in baseball. They rank 8th in baseball with 9.18 hits per contest. David Ortiz comes into this matchup batting .314 and he has an OBP of .455. He has 11 hits this year along with 5 runs scored and 10 RBI. He's struck out 4 times and has walked on 9 occasions. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .239 and he has an OBP of .286. He has collected 11 hits so far while he's scored 9 runs and drove in 7. He has earned a walk 3 times and has punched out 9 times. The Red Sox as a unit have 101 base hits, including 25 doubles and 10 homers. They have 9 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 1 times. Boston as a team has walked 39 times this year and they have struck out 86 times. They've had 76 men left on base and have an OPS of .764. They score 5.09 runs per game and have totaled 56 runs so far this season.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends
The Tampa Bay Rays are 2-8-2 against the over/under so far this season
The Tampa Bay Rays are 4-8-0 against the run line so far this season
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
The Boston Red Sox are 6-5-0 against the over/under so far this season
The Boston Red Sox are 7-4-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays
04/18/16 RF Steven Souza Finger "?" Tuesday vs. Boston Red Sox
04/10/16 P Chase Whitley Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Brad Boxberge Abdominal 15-day DL (3/25)
04/01/16 P Alex Cobb Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
Boston Red Sox
04/18/16 DH David Ortiz Rest is not expected to be in the starting lineup Monday vs. Toronto Blue Jays
04/13/16 3B Pablo Sandoval Shoulder 15-day DL (4/11)
04/04/16 P Brandon Workman Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Carson Smith Elbow 15-day DL (3/25)
04/04/16 P Eduardo Rodrigue Knee 15-day DL (4/2)
Tony's Pick: Take the Red Sox
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