Friday, September 30, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: Marco Estrada vs. Rick Porcello
The Toronto Blue Jays visit Fenway Park on Friday to play the Boston Red Sox. The probable starters are Marco Estrada for the Blue Jays and Rick Porcello for the Red Sox. The opening line for this matchup has Toronto at +135 and Boston at -145. The over/under was set at 9.5. The Blue Jays have a 63-89-6 over/under record and a 78-80-0 run line mark, meaning they cover 49% of the time. The Red Sox are 81-77-0 against the run line and have a 77-74-7 over/under record. They cover the spread 51% of the time.
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The Blue Jays head into this matchup with a 87-71 record, including 41-37 on the road. Starting pitcher Marco Estrada has a 9-9 record with an earned run average of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.12. He has 161 strikeouts over his 171 innings pitched and he has given up 128 hits so far this season. He has allowed 6.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.18. The bullpen this year has an earned run average of 4.10 and they have given up 443 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .250 against the bullpen while being struck out 461 times and walking 134 times this season. As a team, Toronto has allowed 8.29 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.14 batters per nine. They are 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.79. The Blue Jays pitchers have collectively given up 1,312 base hits and 600 earned runs. They have allowed 181 home runs this season and they allow 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Toronto as a pitching staff has walked 448 batters and struck out 1,289. They walk 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.24 and their FIP as a unit is 4.05.
As a team, Toronto is batting .249, good for 23rd in the league while putting together a .237 average away from home. The Blue Jays hold a .429 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .330 which is good for 6th in baseball. They rank 24th in baseball with 8.43 hits per game. Josh Donaldson comes into this game hitting .286 and his on-base percentage is at .407. He has 161 hits this season along with 122 runs scored and 98 runs batted in. He's struck out 114 times and has walked 107 times. Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .265 and he has an on-base percentage of .357. He has totaled 156 hits so far while scoring 98 runs and he's driven in 127. He has walked 83 times and has struck out 136 times. The Blue Jays have 1,332 hits, including 271 doubles and 219 home runs. They've stolen 52 bases while they've been thrown out stealing 24 times. Toronto has walked 612 times this season and they've struck out 1,328 times as a unit. They've left 1,087 men on base and have a team OPS of .759. They score 4.75 runs per contest and have scored a total of 750 runs so far this year.
Boston comes into this matchup with a 46-32 home record and a 92-66 overall mark. With an earned run average of 3.11, Rick Porcello has a 22-4 record and a 0.99 WHIP. He has 183 strikeouts over the 217 innings he's pitched during which he has given up 185 hits. He has allowed 7.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.37. So far this season the bullpen has an earned run average of 3.57 and they have given up 399 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .231 against the Red Sox bullpen while being struck out 497 times and walking 181 times this season. As a team, Boston has allowed 8.39 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.5 batters per nine. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 4.01. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,310 base knocks and 626 earned runs so far this season. They have given up 174 home runs this year and they give up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Boston as a staff has walked 466 hitters and struck out 1,327. They give up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.5 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.26 while their FIP as a staff is 4.00.
As a team, they are batting .284, good for 1st in the league while putting together a .303 average at home. The Red Sox hold a .465 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .350 which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in baseball with 9.97 hits per contest. Xander Bogaerts comes into this matchup batting .295 and he has an OBP of .356. He has 188 hits this year along with 113 runs scored and 88 RBI. He's struck out 118 times and has walked on 56 occasions. Mookie Betts is hitting .320 and he has an OBP of .365. He has collected 211 hits so far while he's scored 119 runs and drove in 112. He has earned a walk 49 times and has punched out 80 times. The Red Sox as a unit have 1,575 base hits, including 340 doubles and 205 homers. They have 82 stolen bases while they've been thrown out 24 times. Boston as a team has walked 545 times this year and they have struck out 1,132 times. They've had 1,138 men left on base and have an OPS of .815. They score 5.49 runs per game and have totaled 868 runs so far this season.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends
The Toronto Blue Jays are 63-89-6 against the over/under so far this season
The Toronto Blue Jays are 78-80-0 against the run line so far this season
Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
The Boston Red Sox are 77-74-7 against the over/under so far this season
The Boston Red Sox are 81-77-0 against the run line so far this season
Injuries to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
09/28/16 2B Devon Travis Shoulder "?" Thursday vs. Baltimore Orioles
09/27/16 P Joaquin Benoit Calf out indefinitely
06/27/16 P Gavin Floyd Shoulder 60-day DL (6/26)
Boston Red Sox
09/27/16 P Drew Pomeranz Forearm expected to miss next scheduled start Thursday vs NY Yankees
09/07/16 P Steven Wright Shoulder out indefinitely
06/17/16 2B Josh Rutledge Knee 60-day DL (6/15)
06/07/16 P Carson Smith Elbow 60-day DL (5/15)
06/06/16 C Blake Swihart Ankle 60-day DL (6/5)
05/03/16 3B Pablo Sandoval Shoulder 60-day DL (4/11); out for season
04/04/16 P Brandon Workman Elbow 60-day DL (3/25)
Josh's Pick: Take the Blue Jays
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