Monday, April 4, 2016
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Probable Pitchers: R.A. Dickey vs. Drew Smyly
The Toronto Blue Jays visit Tropicana Field on Monday to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The probable starters are R.A. Dickey for the Blue Jays and Drew Smyly for the Rays. The opening line for this matchup has Toronto at -105 and Tampa Bay at -105. The over/under was set at 7.5. The Blue Jays had a 84-77-12 over/under record last season and a 95-78-0 run line mark, meaning they covered 55% of the time. The Rays were 90-72-0 against the run line and had a 73-76-13 over/under record. They covered the spread 56% of the time.
The Blue Jays head into this matchup coming off a 93 - 69 season, including 40-41 on the road. Starting pitcher R.A. Dickey had a 11 - 11 record with an earned run average of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.19. He had 126 strikeouts over his 214.1 innings pitched and he also gave up 195 hits over that time period. He allowed 8.2 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 4.48. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.50 and they gave up 412 base hits on the year. Teams hit .229 against the bullpen while being struck out 459 times and walking 130 times last season. As a team, Toronto allowed 8.47 hits per nine innings while striking out 6.95 batters per nine. They were 12th in the league in team earned run average at 3.88. The Blue Jays pitchers collectively gave up 1,353 base hits and 609 earned runs last year. They allowed 173 home runs last season and they allowed 1.1 homers per nine innings as a staff. Toronto as a pitching staff walked 397 batters and struck out 1,117. They walked 2.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 7 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.21 and their FIP as a unit was 4.09.
As a team, Toronto batted .266, good for 4th in the league while putting together a .259 average away from home. The Blue Jays held a .453 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .338 which was good for 1st in baseball. They ranked 7th in baseball with 9.06 hits per game. Josh Donaldson hit .297 last season and his on-base percentage was at .371. He had 184 hits last season along with 122 runs scored and 123 runs batted in. He struck out 133 times and walked 73 times. Jose Bautista hit .250 and he had an on-base percentage of .377 last year. He totaled 136 hits while scoring 108 runs and he drove in 114. He walked 110 times and struck out 106 times. The Blue Jays had 1,480 hits, including 308 doubles, 17 triples, and 232 home runs. They stole 88 bases while they were thrown out stealing 23 times. Toronto walked 570 times last season and they struck out 1,151 times as a unit. They left 1,057 men on base and had a team OPS of .797. They scored 5.5 runs per contest and scored a total of 891 runs last season.
Tampa Bay comes into this matchup after having a 42-42 home record and a 80 - 82 overall mark last year. With an earned run average last season of 3.11, Drew Smyly will come into this game after holding a 5 - 2 record and a 1.17 WHIP. He had 77 strikeouts over the 66.2 innings he pitched during which he gave up 58 hits. He allowed 7.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stood at 3.91. The bullpen had an earned run average of 3.93 and they gave up 484 base hits last year. Teams hit .236 against the Rays bullpen while being struck out 504 times and walking 196 times last season. As a team, Tampa Bay allowed 8.14 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.39 batters per nine. They were 10th in the league in team earned run average at 3.74. The Rays pitchers as a team surrendered 1,314 base knocks and 604 earned runs last season. They gave up 175 home runs last year and they gave up 1.1 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Tampa Bay as a staff walked 477 hitters and struck out 1,355. They gave up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they struck out 8.4 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.23 while their FIP as a staff was 3.91.
As a team, they hit .252, good for 12th in the league while putting together a .248 average at home. The Rays held a .406 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .314 which was good for 18th in baseball. They ranked 14th in baseball with 8.54 hits per contest. Evan Longoria batted .270 last season and he had an OBP of .328. He had 163 hits last year along with 74 runs scored and 73 RBI. He struck out 132 times and walked on 51 occasions. Logan Forsythe hit .281 and he had an OBP of .359. He collected 152 hits last year while he scored 69 runs and drove in 68. He earned a walk 55 times and punched out 111 times. The Rays as a unit had 1,383 base hits last year, including 278 doubles, 32 triples, and 167 homers. They had 87 stolen bases while they were thrown out 45 times. Tampa Bay as a team walked 436 times last year and they struck out 1,310 times. They had 1,075 men left on base and had an OPS of .720. They scored 3.98 runs per game and totaled 644 runs last season.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends
The Toronto Blue Jays were 84-77-12 against the over/under last season
The Toronto Blue Jays were 95-78-0 against the run line last season
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends
The Tampa Bay Rays were 73-76-13 against the over/under last season
The Tampa Bay Rays were 90-72-0 against the run line last season
Injuries to Watch
Toronto Blue Jays
03/31/16 P Aaron Loup Undisclosed Injury is on the 15 day disabled list
03/31/16 2B Devon Travis Shoulder Injury is on the 15 day disabled list
03/31/16 1B Edwin Encarnacion Oblique probable Sunday vs. Tampa Bay Rays
03/31/16 P Marco Estrada Back Injury is on the 15 day disabled list (3/25), expected to start 4/9 vs. Boston Red Sox
03/31/16 P Bo Schultz Undisclosed Injury is on the 15 day disabled list
Tampa Bay Rays
03/31/16 P Brad Boxberger Abdominal out indefinitely
Guy's Pick: Take the Blue Jays
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