Phillies at Reds 4/6/2017 Free MLB Picks & Predictions
by Guy Bruhn - 4/5/2017
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Great American Ball Park
Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.
Probable Pitchers: Clay Buchholz vs. Rookie Davis
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The Philadelphia Phillies head to Great American Ball Park on Thursday, April 6, 2017 to take on the Cincinnati Reds. The starters are Clay Buchholz for the Phillies and Rookie Davis for the Reds.
The opening line for this game has Philadelphia at -113 and Cincinnati at +103. The Phillies had a 78-76-8 over/under record and a 83-79-0 run line mark last season, meaning they covered 51% of the time. The Reds were 85-77-0 against the run line and had a 87-65-10 over/under record. They covered the spread 53% of the time.
Valuable Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies were 78-76-8 against the over/under last season
The Philadelphia Phillies were 83-79-0 against the run line last season
Important Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Cincinnati Reds were 87-65-10 against the over/under last season
The Cincinnati Reds were 85-77-0 against the run line last season
Key Philadelphia Phillies Injuries
04/02/17 P Zach Eflin Knee 10-day DL (03/30)
Key Cincinnati Reds Injuries
04/03/17 P Nefi Ogando Hand 10-day DL (3/30)
04/02/17 P Anthony DeSclafa Elbow 10-day DL (4/2)
04/02/17 P Austin Brice Undisclosed 10-day DL (4/2)
04/02/17 C Devin Mesoraco Hip 10-day DL (3/30)
04/02/17 P Nick Travieso Shoulder 60-day DL (4/2)
03/31/17 P Homer Bailey Elbow 60-day DL
Useful Pitching Statistics
Starting pitcher Clay Buchholz had a 8-10 record with an earned run average of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.33. He had 93 strikeouts over his 139.1 innings pitched and he gave up 130 hits last season. He allowed 8.4 hits per 9 innings and he had a FIP of 5.06. The bullpen last year had an earned run average of 5.05 and they gave up 556 base hits on the year. Teams hit .266 against the bullpen while being struck out 513 times and walking 218 times last season. As a team, Philadelphia allowed 9.19 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.14 batters per nine innings. They were 26th in the league in team earned run average at 4.63. The Phillies pitchers collectively gave up 1,468 base hits and 739 earned runs. They allowed 213 home runs last season and they allowed 1.3 homers per nine innings as a staff. Philadelphia as a pitching staff walked 466 batters and struck out 1,299. They walked 2.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.1 per 9. They had a team WHIP of 1.35 and their FIP as a unit was 4.35.
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As a team Philadelphia batted .240, good for 29th in the league while putting together a .250 average away from home. The Phillies held a .385 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .301 which was good for 29th in baseball. They ranked 28th in baseball with 8.06 hits per game. Odubel Herrera is coming off a 2016 season in which he hit .286 with an on-base percentage of .361. He had 167 hits last season along with 87 runs scored and 49 runs batted in. He struck out 134 times and walked 63 times. Cesar Hernandez hit .294 last year and he had an on-base percentage of .371. He totaled 161 hits while scoring 67 runs and he drove in 39. He walked 66 times and struck out on 116 occasions. The Phillies had 1,306 hits, including 231 doubles and 161 home runs. They stole 96 bases and were thrown out stealing 45 times. Philadelphia walked 424 times last season and they struck out 1,376 times as a unit. They left 1,043 men on base and had a team OPS of .685. They scored 3.77 runs per contest and scored a total of 610 runs last year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Rookie Davis will be making his major league debut for the Reds. Last season the bullpen had an earned run average of 5.09 and they gave up 574 base hits on the year. Teams hit .253 against the Reds bullpen while being struck out 528 times and walking 297 times last season. As a team, Cincinnati allowed 9.09 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.75 batters per nine innings. They were 27th in the league in team earned run average at 4.91. The Reds pitchers as a team surrendered 1,457 base knocks and 786 earned runs last season. They gave up 258 home runs last year and they gave up 1.6 home runs per nine innings as a staff. Cincinnati as a staff walked 636 hitters and struck out 1,241. They gave up a walk 4 times per 9 innings while they struck out 7.7 per 9. Their team WHIP was 1.45 while their FIP as a staff was 5.24.
As a team, they batted .256, good for 16th in the league while putting together a .257 average at home. The Reds held a .408 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .316 which was good for 23rd in baseball. They ranked 19th in baseball with 8.67 hits per contest. Joey Votto comes into this matchup after batting .326 with an OBP of .434. He had 181 hits last year along with 101 runs scored and 97 RBI. He struck out 120 times and walked on 108 occasions. Billy Hamilton hit .260 in 2016 and he had an OBP of .321. He collected 107 hits while scoring 69 runs and driving in 17. He earned a walk 36 times and punched out 93 times. The Reds as a unit had 1,403 base hits, including 277 doubles and 164 homers. They had 139 stolen bases and were thrown out 51 times. Cincinnati as a team walked 452 times last year and they struck out 1,284 times. They had 1,014 men left on base and had an OPS of .724. They scored 4.42 runs per game and totaled 716 runs last season.
Who will win tonight's Phillies/Reds MLB game against the spread?
Guy's Pick: Take the Phillies -113
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