Red Sox at Astros ALCS Game 5 Free MLB Picks and Predictions

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Minute Maid Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: David Price vs. Justin Verlander

The Boston Red Sox visit Minute Maid Park on Thursday to play the Houston Astros in Game 5 of the ALCS. Boston leads the series 3-1 after an 8-6 thrilling win on Wednesday. The probable starters are David Price for the Red Sox and Justin Verlander for the Astros. Chris Sale was supposed to originally start for Boston, but he's still weak from an illness so Houston catches a break.

The opening line for this matchup has Boston at -150 and Houston at +140. The Red Sox have a 82-78-9 over/under record and a 96-73-0 run line mark. The Astros are 87-81-0 against the run line and have a 74-85-9 over/under record.

Valuable Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Boston Red Sox are 82-78-9 against the over/under

The Boston Red Sox are 96-73-0 against the run line

Important Houston Astros Betting Trends

The Houston Astros are 74-85-9 against the over/under

The Houston Astros are 87-81-0 against the run line

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

10/16/18 P Chris Sale Illness is probable next start vs Houston Astros
10/16/18 1B Mitch Moreland Hamstring is questionable vs Houston Astros
10/07/18 P Steven Wright Knee is out indefinitely
09/27/18 P Tyler Thornburg Shoulder is out for season
06/02/18 2B Dustin Pedroia Knee 60-day DL (05/30); is out for season
05/15/18 P Carson Smith Shoulder 60-day DL (05/15)
03/30/18 P Austin Maddox Shoulder 60-day DL (03/29)
03/26/18 SS Marco Hernandez Shoulder 60-day DL (03/29)

Key Houston Astros Injuries

05/21/18 LF Derek Fisher Intestinal 10-day DL (05/20)
03/30/18 P Brady Rodgers Elbow 10-day DL (03/26)
03/26/18 P Jandel Gustave Elbow 60-day DL (03/26)

Useful Pitching Statistics

Starting pitcher Chris Sale David Price is filling in for Chris Sale as he's still hurting and couldn't make the start. The advantage obviously goes to Houston with the pitching matchup in this game but the Sox did win in Price's other start against Houston. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.72 and they have given up 515 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .232 against the bullpen and they've struck out 628 hitters and walked 245 batters. As a team, Boston allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.6 batters per nine innings. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 3.76. The Red Sox pitchers collectively have given up 1,306 base hits and 609 earned runs. They have allowed 176 home runs this season, ranking them 20th in the league. Boston as a pitching staff has walked 512 batters and struck out 1,558. They have walked 3.2 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.25 and their FIP as a unit is 3.82.

Hitting Statistics

As a team Boston is hitting .268, good for 1st in the league. The Red Sox hold a .453 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .339, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.3 hits per game. J.D. Martinez is hitting .330 with an on-base percentage of .402. He has 188 hits this season in 569 at bats with 130 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .629 and an OPS+ of 173. Mookie Betts is hitting .346 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .438. He has totaled 180 hits and he has driven in 80 men in 520 at bats. His OPS+ is 186 while his slugging percentage is at .640. The Red Sox have 1,509 hits, including 355 doubles and 208 home runs. Boston has walked 569 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,253 times as a unit. They have left 1,124 men on base and have a team OPS of .792. They score 5.41 runs per contest and have scored a total of 876 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

With an earned run average of 2.52, Justin Verlander has a 16-9 record and a 0.90 WHIP. He has 290 strikeouts over the 214 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 156 hits. He's allowing 6.6 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 2.78. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.03 and they have given up 393 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .212 against the Astros bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 586 batters and walked 137 opposing hitters. As a team, Houston allows 7.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings. They are 1st in the league in team earned run average at 3.11. The Astros pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,164 base knocks and 503 earned runs this season. They have given up 152 home runs this year, which ranks 29th in Major League Baseball. Houston as a staff has walked 435 hitters and struck out 1,687 batters. They give up a walk 2.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 10.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.10 while their FIP as a staff is 3.24.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .255, good for 7th in the league. The Astros hold a .425 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .329, which is good for 8th in baseball. They rank 12th in MLB with 8.6 hits per contest. Jose Altuve comes into this matchup batting .315 with an OBP of .384. He has 168 hits this year along with 61 RBI in 534 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .449 with an OPS+ of 132. Carlos Correa is hitting .239 this season and he has an OBP of .323. He has collected 96 hits in 402 at bats while driving in 65 runs. He has an OPS+ of 102 and a slugging percentage of .405. The Astros as a unit have 1,389 base hits, including 278 doubles and 205 homers. Houston has walked 565 times this year and they have struck out on 1,197 occasions. They have had 1,052 men left on base and have an OPS of .754. They have scored 4.92 runs per game and totaled 797 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Red Sox/Astros MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Red Sox -150

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