Red Sox at Yankees ALDS Game 3 Free MLB Picks and Predictions

Monday, October 8, 2018

Yankee Stadium

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino

The Boston Red Sox visit Yankee Stadium on Monday to play the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS. The Yankees, led by Gary Sanchez's two home runs, won Game 2 by a score of 6-2 to tie the series at 1-1. The probable starters are Rick Porcello for the Red Sox and Luis Severino for the Yankees.

The opening line for this matchup has Boston at +150 and New York at -175. The Red Sox have a 78-77-9 over/under record and a 92-72-0 run line mark. The Yankees are 86-79-0 against the run line and have a 81-77-7 over/under record.

Valuable Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Boston Red Sox are 78-77-9 against the over/under

The Boston Red Sox are 92-72-0 against the run line

Important New York Yankees Betting Trends

The New York Yankees are 81-77-7 against the over/under

The New York Yankees are 86-79-0 against the run line

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

10/07/18 1B Mitch Moreland Hamstring left last game, is questionable Monday vs New York Yankees
10/07/18 P Steven Wright Knee is out indefinitely
09/27/18 P Tyler Thornburg Shoulder is out for season
06/02/18 2B Dustin Pedroia Knee 60-day DL (05/30); is out for season
05/15/18 P Carson Smith Shoulder 60-day DL (05/15)
03/30/18 P Austin Maddox Shoulder 60-day DL (03/29)
03/26/18 SS Marco Hernandez Shoulder 60-day DL (03/29)

Key New York Yankees Injuries

10/06/18 RF Aaron Hicks Hamstring is questionable Monday vs Boston Red Sox
09/19/18 LF Clint Frazier Concussion 60-day DL (09/19)
07/07/18 P Jonathan Loaisiga Shoulder 10-day DL (07/07)
06/10/18 P Jordan Montgomery Elbow is out for season
05/02/18 CF Jacoby Ellsbury Oblique 60-day DL (03/26)
04/04/18 P Ben Heller Elbow 60-day DL (03/27)

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Red Sox had a 108-54 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Rick Porcello has a 17-7 record with an earned run average of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.18 this season. He has 190 strikeouts over his 191.1 innings pitched and he's given up 177 hits. He's allowed 8.3 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.01. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.74 and they have given up 516 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .232 against the bullpen and they've struck out 628 hitters and walked 245 batters. As a team, Boston allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.6 batters per nine innings. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 3.76. The Red Sox pitchers collectively have given up 1,306 base hits and 609 earned runs. They have allowed 176 home runs this season, ranking them 20th in the league. Boston as a pitching staff has walked 512 batters and struck out 1,558. They have walked 3.2 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.25 and their FIP as a unit is 3.82.

Hitting Statistics

As a team Boston is hitting .268, good for 1st in the league. The Red Sox hold a .453 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .339, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.3 hits per game. J.D. Martinez is hitting .330 with an on-base percentage of .402. He has 188 hits this season in 569 at bats with 130 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .629 and an OPS+ of 173. Mookie Betts is hitting .346 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .438. He has totaled 180 hits and he has driven in 80 men in 520 at bats. His OPS+ is 186 while his slugging percentage is at .640. The Red Sox have 1,509 hits, including 355 doubles and 208 home runs. Boston has walked 569 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,253 times as a unit. They have left 1,124 men on base and have a team OPS of .792. They score 5.41 runs per contest and have scored a total of 876 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

New York had a 100-62 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.39, Luis Severino has a 19-8 record and a 1.15 WHIP. He has 220 strikeouts over the 191.1 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 173 hits. He's allowing 8.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 2.95. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.38 and they have given up 493 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .219 against the Yankees bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 753 batters and walked 227 opposing hitters. As a team, New York allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. They are 10th in the league in team earned run average at 3.78. The Yankees pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,311 base knocks and 611 earned runs this season. They have given up 177 home runs this year, which ranks 18th in Major League Baseball. New York as a staff has walked 494 hitters and struck out 1,634 batters. They give up a walk 3.1 times per 9 innings while they strike out 10.1 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.24 while their FIP as a staff is 3.64.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .249, good for 16th in the league. The Yankees hold a .451 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .329, which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 16th in MLB with 8.5 hits per contest. Aaron Judge comes into this matchup batting .278 with an OBP of .392. He has 115 hits this year along with 67 RBI in 413 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .528 with an OPS+ of 145. Gary Sanchez is hitting .186 this season and he has an OBP of .291. He has collected 60 hits in 323 at bats while driving in 53 runs. He has an OPS+ of 86 and a slugging percentage of .406. The Yankees as a unit have 1,374 base hits, including 269 doubles and 267 homers. New York has walked 625 times this year and they have struck out on 1,421 occasions. They have had 1,100 men left on base and have an OPS of .781. They have scored 5.25 runs per game and totaled 851 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Red Sox/Yankees MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Red Sox +150

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