Atlanta Braves at New York Mets MLB Point Spread Picks 6/28/2019

Friday, June 28, 2019

Citi Field

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Mike Soroka vs. Jacob deGrom

Pete Alonso and the New York Mets (37-44, 4th in NL East) host the Atlanta Braves (48-33, 1st in NL East) at Citi Field on Friday, June 28, 2019. The odds on this game have the Braves coming in at +120 and the Mets are at -130. The over/under opens at 7.5.

The Braves have been excellent for baseball bettors, having gone 48-33-0 SU. The Mets cover 45.7% of the time, going 37-44-0 straight up. The Mets have been dicey for Las Vegas oddsmakers as a favorite, going 22-19-0 SU. The Braves cover 44.0% of the time as the underdog, having gone 11-14-0 straight up.

Valuable Atlanta Braves Betting Trends

The Braves have been a great Over bet for over/under bettors, having gone 44-34-3.

Atlanta is covering 60.0% of the time on the road, having gone 24-16-0 straight up.

Important New York Mets Betting Trends

The Mets cover 58.8% of the time at Citi Field, going 20-14-0 SU.

The Mets have been a great Over bet for over/under bettors, having gone 43-30-8.

Key Atlanta Braves Injuries

6/26/2019 Kevin Gausman SP Foot Expected to be out until at least Jul 5
6/24/2019 Darren O'Day RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Jul 2
6/23/2019 Mike Soroka SP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Jun 28
6/17/2019 Ender Inciarte CF Back Expected to be out until at least Jul 2
6/5/2019 Jacob Lindgren RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 1

Key New York Mets Injuries

6/26/2019 Jeurys Familia RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 5
6/24/2019 Noah Syndergaard SP Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Jun 30
6/22/2019 Jed Lowrie 3B Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/21/2019 Luis Avilan RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jun 28
6/19/2019 Justin Wilson RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/18/2019 Brandon Nimmo LF Neck Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
5/23/2019 Yoenis Cespedes CF Ankle Out for the season
5/3/2019 Drew Smith RP Elbow Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Braves have a 48-33 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Mike Soroka has a 8-1 record with an earned run average of 2.07 and a WHIP of 0.97 this season. He has 63 strikeouts over his 78.1 innings pitched and he's given up 57 hits. He's allowed 6.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.07. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.74 and they have given up 277 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .237 against the bullpen and they've struck out 324 hitters and walked 144 batters. As a team, Atlanta allows 8.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.6 batters per nine innings. They are 11th in the league in team earned run average at 4.24. The Braves pitchers collectively have given up 695 base hits and 343 earned runs. They have allowed 102 home runs this season, ranking them 19th in the league. Atlanta as a pitching staff has walked 306 batters and struck out 695. They have walked 3.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.37 and their FIP as a unit is 4.52.

Related: Get MLB picks & tips on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Atlanta is hitting .263, good for 8th in the league. The Braves hold a .460 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .337, which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 5th in MLB with 9.1 hits per game. Ronald Acuna Jr is hitting .287 with an on-base percentage of .369. He has 92 hits this season in 321 at bats with 51 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .502 and an OPS+ of 121. Freddie Freeman is hitting .313 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .399. He has totaled 99 hits and he has driven in 61 men in 316 at bats. His OPS+ is 151 while his slugging percentage is at .595. The Braves have 739 hits, including 139 doubles and 126 home runs. Atlanta has walked 295 times so far this season and they have struck out 693 times as a unit. They have left 571 men on base and have a team OPS of .797. They score 5.41 runs per contest and have scored a total of 438 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

New York has a 37-44 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.25, Jacob deGrom has a 4-6 record and a 1.09 WHIP. He has 121 strikeouts over the 97 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 86 hits. He's allowing 8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.04. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.53 and they have given up 276 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .265 against the Mets bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 272 batters and walked 129 opposing hitters. As a team, New York allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.79. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 723 base knocks and 384 earned runs this season. They have given up 109 home runs this year, which ranks 15th in Major League Baseball. New York as a staff has walked 272 hitters and struck out 737 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.2 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.38 while their FIP as a staff is 4.36.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .255, good for 14th in the league. The Mets hold a .436 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .328, which is good for 12th in baseball. They rank 13th in MLB with 8.8 hits per contest. Pete Alonso comes into this matchup batting .281 with an OBP of .371. He has 82 hits this year along with 61 RBI in 292 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .634 with an OPS+ of 167. Jeff McNeil is hitting .351 this season and he has an OBP of .414. He has collected 88 hits in 251 at bats while driving in 30 runs. He has an OPS+ of 152 and a slugging percentage of .514. The Mets as a unit have 714 base hits, including 140 doubles and 117 homers. New York has walked 271 times this year and they have struck out on 723 occasions. They have had 565 men left on base and have an OPS of .765. They have scored 4.78 runs per game and totaled 387 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Braves/Mets MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Braves +120

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