Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Expert Game 4 Picks 10/7/2019

Monday, October 7, 2019

Busch Stadium

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Julio Teheran vs. Daniel Hudson

Busch Stadium is the site where Yadier Molina and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Atlanta Braves on Monday in Game 4 of the NLDS. The Cardinals open this matchup at +107 while the Braves are priced at -127. The over/under opens at 8.5.

The Braves have been terrible for Vegas oddsmakers, having gone 98-66-0 SU. The Cardinals cover 56.1% of the time, going 92-72-0 straight up.

Valuable Atlanta Braves Betting Trends

The Braves have been a dicey Under option for over/under MLB bettors, having gone 77-79-8.

The Braves cover 58.0% of the time as the visitor, having gone 47-34-0 straight up.

Important St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends

St. Louis is covering 61.7% of the time at Busch Stadium, going 50-31-0 SU.

The Cardinals have been a dicey Under option for over/under MLB bettors, having gone 70-85-9.

Related: Gambling 101 - MLB Betting Tips - Tony George of Doc's Sports

Key Atlanta Braves Injuries

10/4/2019 Chris Martin RP Oblique Expected to be out until at least Oct 11
9/27/2019 Ender Inciarte CF Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Oct 13
9/18/2019 Johan Camargo SS Lower Leg Expected to be out until at least Oct 10
9/17/2019 Charlie Culberson LF Face Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
9/12/2019 A.J RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jan 1, 2020
9/5/2019 Alex Jackson C Knee Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
8/19/2019 Jacob Webb RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020

Key St. Louis Cardinals Injuries

9/18/2019 Brett Cecil RP Wrist Expected to be out until at least Nov 1
9/1/2019 Lane Thomas CF Wrist Expected to be out until at least Nov 1
7/11/2019 Jordan Hicks RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 1, 2020
6/26/2019 Tony Cingrani RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 10, 2020

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Braves have a 97-65 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Julio Teheran has a 10-11 record with an earned run average of 3.81 and a WHIP of 1.32 this season. He has 162 strikeouts over his 174.2 innings pitched and he's given up 148 hits. He's allowed 7.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.66. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.21 and they have given up 559 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .250 against the bullpen and they've struck out 598 hitters and walked 243 batters. As a team, Atlanta allows 8.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.6 batters per nine innings. They are 10th in the league in team earned run average at 4.19. The Braves pitchers collectively have given up 1,421 base hits and 675 earned runs. They have allowed 203 home runs this season, ranking them 23rd in the league. Atlanta as a pitching staff has walked 548 batters and struck out 1,393. They have walked 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit is 4.39.

Related: Get MLB predictions on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Atlanta is hitting .258, good for 9th in the league. The Braves hold a .452 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .336, which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 10th in MLB with 8.8 hits per game. Ozzie Albies is hitting .295 with an on-base percentage of .352. He has 189 hits this season in 640 at bats with 86 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .500 and an OPS+ of 114. Josh Donaldson is hitting .259 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .379. He has totaled 142 hits and he has driven in 94 men in 549 at bats. His OPS+ is 127 while his slugging percentage is at .521. The Braves have 1,432 hits, including 277 doubles and 249 home runs. Atlanta has walked 619 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,467 times as a unit. They have left 1,138 men on base and have a team OPS of .789. They score 5.28 runs per contest and have scored a total of 855 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

St. Louis has a 91-71 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 2.47, Daniel Hudson has a 9-3 record and a 1.14 WHIP. He has 71 strikeouts over the 73 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 56 hits. He's allowing 6.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.97. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.88 and they have given up 450 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .217 against the Cardinals bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 607 batters and walked 235 opposing hitters. As a team, St. Louis allows 8 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings. They are 5th in the league in team earned run average at 3.8. The Cardinals pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,284 base knocks and 609 earned runs this season. They have given up 191 home runs this year, which ranks 28th in Major League Baseball. St. Louis as a staff has walked 545 hitters and struck out 1,399 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.27 while their FIP as a staff is 4.27.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .245, good for 23rd in the league. The Cardinals hold a .415 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .322, which is good for 17th in baseball. They rank 24th in MLB with 8.3 hits per contest. Yadier Molina comes into this matchup batting .270 with an OBP of .312. He has 113 hits this year along with 57 RBI in 419 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .399 with an OPS+ of 85. Marcell Ozuna is hitting .243 this season and he has an OBP of .330. He has collected 118 hits in 485 at bats while driving in 89 runs. He has an OPS+ of 108 and a slugging percentage of .474. The Cardinals as a unit have 1,337 base hits, including 246 doubles and 210 homers. St. Louis has walked 561 times this year and they have struck out on 1,420 occasions. They have had 1,107 men left on base and have an OPS of .737. They have scored 4.72 runs per game and totaled 764 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Braves/Cardinals MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Cardinals (+107)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Read more articles by Josh Schonwald